Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 190454
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1154 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS. BY AROUND 09Z...A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND LOW
MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME POSSIBLE. BY DAYBREAK A FEW AREAS COULD
SEE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. TAFS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE DUE TO THE
BROADER LOW LEVEL DRY PATTERN AND THE CLOUD COVER ALOFT. VFR
SKIES SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS SOONER...AS GULF
MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS SLUGGISH. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MORE
CONSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM DEEPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEADY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST APPROACHES TEXAS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND EXPAND TO MUCH OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
QPF AS WELL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES INTO EAST
TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL MID-WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
MODELS AREN`T QUITE SURE HOW FAR SOUTHWARD TO SEND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE WILL BE TOO
FAR SOUTH AND WILL GET DRY-SLOTTED INSTEAD.

THE FLAT PATTERN ALOFT AND SLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL LEAD TO A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE MID 80S/EAST TO LOW 90S/WEST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  80  60  80  63 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  80  57  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  81  59  80  61 /   0  -   20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  78  60  78  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  80  64  82  66 /  -   20  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  78  59  79  64 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  83  63  83  65 /   0  10  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        55  80  58  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  80  58  79  61 /  -    0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  81  61  81  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  83  61  82  64 /   0  -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05







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