Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 052342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
542 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
WATCHING A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOK
FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DRT BY AROUND 04Z AND AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO BY 09Z. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR RAIN IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO...BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
PROB30. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME. DRY AIR STILL EXISTS
AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH
SOUTH WINDS RETURNING WE SHOULD SEE MOISTURE VALUES CREEP UP EVER
SO SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS
NEAR 40 DEGREES BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL HELP WITH THE
PRODUCTION OF A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. CURRENTLY...A
STRONG TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RESPONDING COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY IN WEST TEXAS. THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
HAS SLOWED A BIT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THERE TO BE BETTER UPPER
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER PRODUCTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT. YESTERDAY...MODELS SHOWED THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH TO BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWER
PRODUCTION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH THE TWO FEATURES BEING
SOMEWHAT BETTER ALIGNED AND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ACROSS THE EAST JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL RANGE FROM A
TRACE TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BEHIND
THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER
TO UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
SHOULD SEE MANY AREAS REACH THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING ONCE
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY WEATHER WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE DRY AS THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 10 DEGREES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THE DRIER AIR AND WEAKER WINDS ON TUESDAY
MORNING...SHOULD SEE AREAS GET TO FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. WENT A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN HOW DRY
THE AIR WILL BE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS SOUTH FLOW RETURNS...BUT ANOTHER DRY FRONT IS POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW. VALUES FOR THE MOST PART WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-TEENS TO 30 PERCENT SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LOWER VALUES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE LOW VALUES ACROSS THE
WEST...THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE HEAVILY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH DAY. TOMORROW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LOWERING TO 10 TO 12 MPH ONCE THE 20 DEGREE OR LESS RH VALUES
OCCUR. GIVEN THIS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WESTERN LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLE THE NORTHWESTERN HILL
COUNTRY...OR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY ON SUNDAY WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND
THEN BE AREA WIDE ON MONDAY AS BREEZY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH EVEN DRIER AIR
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              39  61  36  68  39 /  30  -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  37  62  31  67  37 /  40  -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     38  64  33  68  37 /  40  -    0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            33  59  33  67  36 /  30   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           36  67  35  71  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  59  32  66  37 /  30  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             36  66  31  70  37 /  30   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        39  63  33  66  37 /  40  -    0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   41  62  35  66  39 /  40  20   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       40  65  34  68  38 /  30  -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           40  66  34  69  39 /  30  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33


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