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000
FXUS64 KEWX 301133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
533 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC VFR DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...AROUND 10K FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...
INCLUDING AUS. VERY PATCHY -RA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH MIDDAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS...CEILINGS RUNNING 4-6 FEET OUT NEAR DRT AND
DEVELOPING TOWARDS SAT/SSF MIDDAY. CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO
MVFR AT DRT AROUND 00Z...SAT/SSF ROUGHLY 03Z...AND AUS AROUND OR
AFTER 06Z. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...-RA WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST...IMPACTING DRT 06Z-12Z
AND SAT/SSF/AUS TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILTIES DEVELOPING IN THE -RA/BR AT DRT AFTER 06Z AND MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT SAT/SSF/AUS AFTER 12Z SAT. NE WIND
AROUND 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AT AUS...7-12 KTS AT SAT...AND
LESS THAN 7 KTS AT DRT. WINDS TURNING E THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE
AUS/SAT AND SE THIS AFTERNOON AT DRT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

AS OF 345 AM...VERY LIGHT RETURNS WERE SEEN ON RADAR OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SPANNING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 20+ DEGREES...MEASURABLE
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND WILL BE UNLIKELY. HI RES MODELS MOVE
THIS ACTIVITY OUT BY MID MORNING SO JUST LEFT SPRINKLE MENTIONS
THROUGH 15Z FOR THIS.

OTHERWISE...A MUCH COOLER DAY TODAY AS THE COOLER AIR MASS AND
INCREASING CLOUDS INHIBIT DIURNAL TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH BEYOND 60
FOR THE CWA...IF THAT. A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND OF 10-15 MPH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT.

THE ONSET OF RAIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LOOKS TO BE RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGS BROAD UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH THE
MORNING...A 40+ KT 850 MB LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN FEEDING AMPLE
MOISTURE INTO THE BROAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE STATE
SATURDAY WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKING TO BE THE
TIME FRAME IN WHICH THE BULK OF THE RAIN WOULD FALL.
HOWEVER...EACH FORECAST RUN IS ADVERTISING LESS AND LESS QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE OFFICIAL QPF GRIDS ONLY CALL FOR A QUARTER
INCH TO THREE QUARTER INCH TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY...DO THINK THERE
IS A DECENT SHOT AT LOCATIONS GETTING OVER AN INCH WHERE THE
HEAVIER RAINS FALL. WITH THE VERY BROAD NATURE OF THE FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM...PINPOINTING THOSE LOCATIONS WOULD BE FUTILE. BUT ITS
PROBABLY A SAFE BET TO SAY THE BEST SHOT AT THAT WOULD BE THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL CLEAR OUT AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY. BELIEVE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST IN THE MOIST AIRMASS UNTIL THE FRONT DRIES OUT THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME THUNDER SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT
SFC BASED CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES 18Z SUNDAY SO SOME THUNDER
WAS INTRODUCED IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE A RATHER STRONG ONE ONCE IT
COMES THROUGH...CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE ESCARPMENT MONDAY MORNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30
MPH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW TO TRANSLATE THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE COASTLINE BRINGING
POPS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              59  45  59  55  63 /  10  20  60  70  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  44  60  54  64 /  10  20  60  70  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  46  61  56  65 /  -   20  70  70  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            55  42  56  51  60 /  10  30  80  70  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  48  58  52  64 /  10  60  80  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  43  57  53  60 /  10  20  60  70  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  46  61  54  67 /  10  50  70  60  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        58  45  61  55  64 /  -   20  70  70  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  46  63  56  66 /  -   10  50  70  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  47  60  56  66 /  10  30  70  60  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  47  62  56  67 /  -   30  70  60  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03