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000
FXUS64 KEWX 042340 CCA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
539 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BRINGING
WARM...MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING LOW CIGS TO FORM LATER
TONIGHT IN THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS. ALSO EXPECTING VIS TO
BE REDUCED BY FOG. EXPECTING FLYING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR BY
AROUND 05Z AND TO VLIFR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER. SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT NEAR SUNRISE WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
TURN THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH. THEN CIGS WILL RISE TO MVFR
LATE MORNING THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 15 WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT IS SET TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 09Z AND INTO
AUSTIN BY 12Z AND SAT BY 15Z. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS SUGGEST A
SLIGHT ACCELERATION OF THE FRONT POSSIBLE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
TRENDS CONTINUE DOWNWARD FOR THURSDAY...AND BY LATE EVENING...A FEW
LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY MAY BE AT RISK OF
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC
FRONT... LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERRUN
THE ARCTIC AIR AND PRODUCE A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. PF AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW 1/10 INCH...
AND SO A WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LEVEL THREAT IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...
WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONFINE EARLY ICING TO
MAINLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY AS A SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME CONTINUED DRY AIR REINFORCEMENT IN THE
LOWEST 3000 FT OR MORE. LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE REDUCED TO DRIZZLE AT THE SURFACE...SO VERY LITTLE ICING IS
ANTICIPATED...DESPITE SEVERAL HOURS OF OPPORTUNITY OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SLEET SHOWN IN THE FORECAST. PERSISTENT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND MODEL TRENDS ON
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THIS AIR MASS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE ONE
PRIOR TO THANKSGIVING. IF ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS DETECTED IN
THE BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES THAT
RESULT WOULD WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WARNING TO BE
ISSUED.

BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES IN
THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AS IT DOES SO...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR WAKE SUBSIDENCE TO
CLEAR OUT SKIES AND MODIFY THE TEMPERATURES TO END THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MODEL TRENDS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
GFS...SHOW THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH BECOMING MORE
SHALLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THUS FURTHER INCREASING THE CHANCE
FOR CLEARING SKIES. NEVERTHELESS...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
FURTHER REINFORCED ON MONDAY WITH THE COLDEST MORNING LOWS OF THE
SEASON EXPECTED OVER MANY AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...
LEADING TO A HIGHER CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  57  33  38  29 /  10  30  70  60  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  59  34  38  28 /  10  30  70  60  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  62  37  39  29 /  10  30  70  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  49  31  35  25 /  10  30  70  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  68  39  47  33 /  -   20  60  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        48  53  31  35  26 /  10  30  70  60  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  67  38  40  33 /  10  20  60  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  61  36  38  29 /  10  30  70  60  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  67  38  39  33 /  10  30  60  70  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       62  64  36  39  32 /  10  20  70  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  65  38  41  34 /  10  20  60  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33