Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 250855
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
355 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Mid level shear axis remains over the Hill Country and Central Texas
with Subtropical Ridges over the Southern Plains and extending from
east of Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico. A TUTT low is over the
western Gulf of Mexico. Slightly drier air has worked into our area.
Very isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
into early evening due to the seabreeze and the mid level shear axis.
However, chances are too low for mention in the forecast. Moisture
increases a little on Wednesday as higher PWS over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico filter into southern Texas. Have maintained slight
chances of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon along the
seabreeze for the Coastal Plains and Highway 77 corridor. Heat index
values may flirt with advisory levels of 108 for an hour or two in a
few spots along and southeast of the Escarpment this afternoon and
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
The Southern Plains Subtropical Ridge expands to the east Thursday
and Friday into the western Gulf of Mexico while the TUTT low moves
across northern Mexico. Airmass dries again with a stronger capping
inversion. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible for areas
nearest the Coastal Plains Thursday afternoon with none on Friday.
The Subtropical Ridge retreats to the Four Corners region while a
trough develops over the eastern States this weekend. The resulting
north to northwesterly flow aloft allows a surface boundary/rare late
July cold front to sag south across Texas. Enhanced moisture
convergence along this surface feature will allow for showers and
thunderstorms beginning on Saturday and continuing into next week.
However, enough influence from the Subtropical Ridge will keep the
activity isolated to widely scattered. Similar to the short term,
heat index values may flirt with advisory levels of 108 for an hour
or two in a few spots along and southeast of the Escarpment during
the afternoon hours through Sunday. Increased cloud cover will bring
lower high temperatures next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  78 101  77 102 /  10  -   10  10  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  99  76 100  76 101 /  10  -   10  10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport    100  76 100  75 101 /  10  -   10  10  -
Burnet Muni Airport            97  75  98  74  99 /  10  -   10  -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  78 101  78 102 /  -   -   10  -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  77  99  76 101 /  10  10  10  10  -
Hondo Muni Airport            102  76 103  75 103 /  10  -   10  -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport       100  76 100  76 101 /  10  -   10  10  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   99  77  99  76 100 /  10  10  20  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport      100  77 101  77 101 /  10  -   10  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport          102  77 103  76 103 /  10  -   10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...04



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