Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 240135
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
835 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND
ALONG THE LOWER PECOS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A THIN RIBBON OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER. REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER TRENDS FOR TONIGHT. 18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE DISAGREEMENT
SEEN IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS ON POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH THE DRT VCNTY
THROUGH 04Z...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN TERMS OF OUTFLOW
WINDS AND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POSSIBLY
RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR DRT LATE TONIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP A DRY AND UNEVENTFUL TAF PERIOD IN PLACE FOR
THE I-35 TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
ALSO SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE DONE WELL WITH THIS CONVECTION
AND WE/LL GENERALLY FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE HRRR...NMM AND ARW
MODELS FOR THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. WE EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-EVENING FOR AREAS WEST
OF A KERRVILLE TO HONDO TO PEARSALL LINE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WE/LL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON
WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE COASTAL
PLAINS FOR SOME LATE DAY CONVECTION...BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE LATEST FORECAST. LATE WEDNESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TAKING SHAPE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL GENERALLY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THIS LOW...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY DUE TO
CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90
FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR THIS AND WE/LL RETAIN THIS IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE. WE DID OPT TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY...
WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  85  63  86  66 /   0   0  -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  86  60  87  63 /   0   0  -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  87  63  88  65 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  85  61  85  64 /   0   0  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  87  66  85  67 /  20  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  85  62  86  65 /   0   0  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  89  65  88  66 /  -   -   -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  86  63  87  65 /   0  -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  86  63  86  66 /   0   0  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  87  66  87  67 /   0  -   -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  88  66  87  67 /   0  -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32




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