302
FXUS64 KEWX 140016
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
716 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...


.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch extended until 9 AM for the Hill Country, Southern
  Edwards Plateau, and I-35 Corridor.

- Up to level 2 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall for tonight over the
  watch area.

- Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated 3 inches
  possible across the Flood Watch area through Monday morning.

- Rapid river rises are possible with this event.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Evening rains are rebounding over southern and western areas where we
could have possibly allowed the watch to expire given the lack of
rain from last night and this morning. We were very close to allowing
the entire Flood Watch to expire, but the the final hour, the MCV
clearly defined over an are between the towns of Hamilton, Comanche
and Goldthwaite over North Central TX rekindled and formed a weak
feeder band of rain extending south toward Burnet County. This
prompted a closer look at the mid level analysis where a broader mid-
level shear axis identified to extend SW into Northern Mexico where
another mesoscale to low end synoptic scale low was perched over the
Serranias del Burros. Convection was firing both east and west of
Eagle pass, and cell propagation of this activity favored an
expansion of this activity back north into the watch area.

Thus we hastily extended the watch as we don`t want to gamble with
all the non-stop operations ongoing over the Guadalupe, Colorado, and
San Gabriel basins. As it stands we expect a low probability say
around 10-20 percent that some river impacts over these area come
from new overnight rains. The evening rebound of convection is a
reminder that those out in the remote areas will need to keep their
situational awareness up while the 2.0 to 2.2 inch PWat rich moisture
remains juxtaposed over the watch area. Most amounts should be less
than 2 inches, but a few amounts around 3 inches might occur west of
Junction to Uvalde. We still suspect that isolated 2+ inch amounts
could be enough to get area rivers to quickly jump back to minor
flood stage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

An upper level low pressure system is generating showers and
thunderstorms in an usually moist airmass over South Central
Texas. The system has been more progressive this afternoon, and
rainfall totals have been more moderate than early today. This
system will continue to move slowly across the region and rain
chances will continue tonight. As the low moves away from our
area chances should decrease to the 30%-40% range overnight. The
deep moisture will remain in place making locally heavy rain
possible in any strong updrafts. We will continue the Flood
Watch until this evening, but for now let it end at 7 pm. We
will re-evaluate the situation later this afternoon to see if we
need to extend it. The upper low will continue to influence the
region Monday. The airmass will still be very moist and the
lift from the upper low will be enhanced by daytime heating
leading to about a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon over the western Hill Country and Southern
Edwards Plateau. At this time it looks like the chances for
heavy rain will be limited, and we do not expect any flooding.
Monday night rain chances will decrease to slight. Most of the
CWA should be dry.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Tuesday the subtropical ridge will begin building of TX. There
will still be enough instability for a slight chance for rain
during the day Tuesday. Subsident flow should suppress
convection beginning Tuesday night. This will continue through
the rest of the work week. Drier weather and more sunshine
should lead to warming temperatures through the week. This
should bring highs back up to near normal. Friday and Saturday
we could see some seabreeze showers over the Coastal Plains
during the afternoon. Temperatures will stay near normal over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Some redevelopment of SHRA/TSRA is ongoing. Have VCSH mention for
this evening into the overnight and will monitor for updates for
prevailing or PROB30s. SHRA/TSRA are expected again on Monday.
However, for now, PROBs are too low to mention. Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions lowering to MVFR CIGs overnight into morning, then
mixing to VFR Monday afternoon. Brief lowering of CIGs/VSBYs is
possible in SHRA/TSRA. S to SE winds prevail with some gustiness
near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  92  75  93 /  30  40  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  92  75  93 /  30  40  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  93  75  93 /  40  40  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            71  88  72  90 /  40  40  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  94  77  95 /  30  30  20  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  91  74  92 /  40  40  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             74  91  75  92 /  40  40  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  93  74  93 /  30  40  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  91  75  92 /  30  40   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  92  76  93 /  40  40  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           76  95  76  96 /  40  40  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for Bandera-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-
Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Medina-Real-
Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...05
Aviation...04