Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KEWX 300008 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
708 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...AS A RESULT OF THE MORE BULLISH CLOUD FORECAST PER
HRRR/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/RAP OUTPUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...OVERALL
SKY COVER WAS INCREASED NEAR AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WERE ALSO INTRODUCED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AS A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOTED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND MAY HELP
PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION WITH
THE FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN POSTED AND AN UPDATED AVIATION
DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW AS WELL. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR SKC ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS OF 00Z. HOWEVER...
REDEVELOPING IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR STRATUS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND OF TEXAS AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL TERMINALS IN
THE 05-07Z TIME FRAME. LIFR WINDOW WILL BE FROM 10-15Z WHERE SOME
PATCHY FOG DOWN TO 1SM AT TIMES COULD ALSO OCCUR FOR KSAT/KSSF.
KDRT WILL LIKELY GO IFR AS WELL NEAR 12Z AND SLOWLY RECOVER TO VFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CENTRAL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KT THIS EVENING THEN DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 5
KT BY 06Z AND THEN PICKING BACK UP TOWARDS 10 KT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THANK FOR A WARM AND SUNNY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THIS
WILL PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE REACH OUR AREA. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND STICK AROUND FOR MONDAY. WITH
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE WEAK FRONT TO
OUR NORTH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY WITH SOME MORNING STREAMER
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN ANTONIO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER ON MONDAY THAN THEY WERE TODAY AND HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY EAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND APPROACH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN TERMS OF THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
LATE TUESDAY. THE SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FOR DAY 3. CAPE VALUES OF 1200 J/KG AND DECENT SHEAR SUPPORT THE
THREAT. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
WILL BE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO
THE 90S. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE FRONT
AND THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

TREADWAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  80  62  79  62 /  -   20  20  20  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  61  78  61  78  61 /  -   20  20  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  79  61  80  61 /  10  20  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  79  61  79  61 /   0  20  20  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  82  65  81  61 /   0  -   20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  78  62  79  62 /   0  20  20  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  81  61  79  61 /   0  10  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  79  61  79  61 /  10  20  20  20  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  79  61  79  63 /  10  20  20  20  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  80  62  79  62 /  -   20  20  20  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  80  62  80  62 /  -   10  20  20  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.