Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KEWX 240852
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PER AREA 24/00Z RAOB DATA. THIS PATTERN USUALLY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RADAR DATA DOES
SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN
AUSTIN TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE AS OF 06Z COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TODAY. THE HI-RES RUC...3KM TEXAS TECH WRF AND SREF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON
THE ABOVE...WE HAVE INCLUDED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ON FRIDAY... A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS... WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
WEEKEND AS THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN INTACT...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT LIKELY CONTROLLED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE RATHER LOW...BUT
GIVEN THE PATTERN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER DATA BEGAN TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW (20%) FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 REMAINING FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND NEXT
WEEK...BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76 100  76  99 /  20  20  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  99  73  98 /  20  20  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  73  99  73  99 /  20  20  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  74  97  74  97 /  20  10  -   -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  77 100  77 101 /  10  10  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  98  75  98 /  20  20  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  73  98  74  99 /  20  20  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  98  74  98 /  20  20  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  75  98  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  98  76  98 /  20  20  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  98  75  99 /  20  20  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.