Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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316
FXUS64 KEWX 301744
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1244 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF CYCLE/

All sites have returned to VFR after the MVFR to even LIFR cloud
and visibility restrictions this morning. VFR conditions are
expected to continue through at least 08-09Z overnight Sunday.
Isolated TSRA will develop across the coastal plains this
afternoon but are not expected be near the main terminals.
Surface winds will be near 10-15 kt from the south to south east
this afternoon. Surface winds will decrease to near 5 kt
overnight.

MVFR and patchy areas of IFR ceilings are again expected 09-15Z
Sunday morning for KAUS/KSAT/KSSF terminals. It is not impossible
for brief LIFR ceilings to develop as well. Patchy ground fog will
also be a possibility. Will need to watch KDRT closely if brief
MVFR ceilings are possible as well. Have placed a SCT020 group to
hedge that direction. Will likely need to include TEMPO groups
for lower cloud decks and ground fog restrictions on subsequent
TAF issuances during the 09-15Z time-frame for KAUS/KSAT/KSSF.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
A TUTT trough over the Lower Rio Grande Valley drifts northwest
and becomes centered over Southern Texas later today and lingers
through Sunday as a mid/upper level shear axis shifts northwest
across northern and southwestern Texas. The shear axis lays
between Subtropical Ridges centered over the Four Corners region
and over northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Also, an MCV along the
Rio Grande drifts to the west across the Serranias del Burro of
Mexico. Finally, the seabreeze moves inland each day. The features
aloft serve to enhance the seabreeze to generate isolated showers
and thunderstorms across areas near the Coastal Plains today and
again on Sunday. Models show a slight drying trend and expect the
showers and thunderstorms to dissipate before reaching the I-35
corridor by early evening. Also for this afternoon, isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible across Maverick county
near the Rio Grande due proximity to the MCV. Due to a warming
trend of daytime temperatures and a lingering humid airmass, areas
east of I-35 may see heat indices of 105 to 107 for an hour or two
during the mid afternoon.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
Early into the middle of next week, the TUTT trough/shear axis
quickly fills as the Subtropical Ridges build toward each other
and then center over Texas. This means no rain chances for Monday
through Wednesday as the airmass dries and becomes strongly
subsident. Late in the week, the Subtropical Ridge shifts north a
little allowing somewhat deeper moisture back into Southern and
Central Texas. This enables the seabreeze to generate showers and
thunderstorms for areas near the Coastal Plains and maintained
slight chance POPS for Thursday and Friday. Heat indices will
reach the 105 to 108 range each afternoon.

Just beyond this forecast, for next weekend, all models are
showing some type of tropical development from the wave currently
well east of the Lesser Antilles. Recent runs show a track west
to the Yucatan, the Bay of Campeche/southwestern Gulf of Mexico
and into Mexico. The previous run of the ECMWF showed the system
moving into Southern Texas. As a result, there is uncertainty. The
strength and location the Subtropical Ridge axis will determine
its track.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Rio Grande
Plains Monday through Friday during the afternoon hours. Relative
humidities of 20 to 30 percent and southeasterly wind of 10 to 15
mph are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  98  77 100  75 /  -   -    0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  97  75  99  73 /  -   -    0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  98  75 100  73 /  -   -    0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75  97  75  98  73 /  -   -    0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  98  78 101  77 /  -   -    0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  98  77  99  75 /  -   -    0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  97  74  98  73 /  -   -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  97  75  99  74 /  -   -    0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  97  77  98  75 /  -   10  -   -    0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  96  76  98  75 /  -   -    0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  98  76 100  75 /  -   -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...09
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams



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