Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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788
FXUS64 KEWX 301146
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
646 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/

A weak low level disturbance close to Baffin Bay S of CRP will
become absorbed into a mid level low over the next day. Broad
cyclonic flow around this disturbance will continue a trend for
light showers in the late morning hours. Midday mixing could lower
rain chances briefly, with afternoon heating likely to trigger new
convection late in the day. Will follow a general persistence
trend from yesterday on precip impacts with mainly showers to
create some wind shifts and mainly MVFR cigs and vsbys. A slight
increase in IFR cigs were noted this morning around TAF sites
with some LIFR cigs seen in outlying areas. weak northerly winds
will keep the low clouds sct-v-bkn this morning and Wed morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Early this morning a surface trough was located along the Mid
Texas Coast. An inverted mid level trough axis just offshore
extended northwest. Deeper convection through the morning hours
will be located closer to the surface trough as well as along the
northern Rio Grande Plains into far West Texas, closer to zone of
mid level forcing. The surface and mid level trough axis will
weaken as it moves off to the southwest today. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are then forecast to develop
this afternoon through the evening across the remainder of the
CWA. Precipitable water values still around 2-2.1 inches and some
brief heavy downpours are possible. But heaviest rainfall should
be focused further south today along the Mid Texas Coast and South
Texas.

Slightly drier air works into northern areas tonight and Wednesday.
Combined with forcing weak, coverage of any convection Wednesday
should remain isolated. Temps a few degrees warmer also on
Wednesday, with heat index values back over 100 along and east of
I-35.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
What is left of the upper level weakness across the western Gulf
of Mexico will weaken Wednesday and Thursday with weak ridging
building into the CWA from the west. Precipitable water values
fall to around 1.5-1.8 inches Wednesday night into Thursday.
Diurnally driven convection Thursday afternoon should remain very
isolated, with continued warming temps.

An increase in moisture may take place from the northeast Friday
into Saturday. This may bring a slightly better chance for showers
and storms across northern and eastern areas, but coverage wise
isolated to widely scattered.

Early next week a ridge looks to become established over the
southeast U.S. with deeper southeast flow developing over the
area. Around the southwest periphery of the ridge, a weak wave and
pool of deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico may move into
eastern portions of the CWA bringing a chance of showers and
storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  74  93  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  73  92  74  93 /  30  20  20  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  73  92  74  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            87  72  90  73  92 /  30  20  20  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           88  74  91  75  93 /  50  40  20  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  73  92  74  92 /  30  20  20  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             89  73  93  74  94 /  50  20  20  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        88  73  92  74  93 /  40  20  20  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  75  93  76  95 /  40  20  20  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  74  93  75  94 /  50  20  20  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           89  75  94  76  95 /  50  20  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen



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