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000
FXUS64 KEWX 132328 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
628 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP 08Z-10Z AT THE I-35 SITES AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES.
KDRT WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AROUND 12Z THEN IFR CIGS
FROM 14Z-18Z THEN BACK TO VFR. FOR KSAT/KAUS EXPECT IFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP AROUND 03Z FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
DECREASE TO 5 TO 8 KNOTS THEN INCREASE AFTER 16Z BACK TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS. KDRT WILL SEE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014/

UPDATE...
REFRESHED PRELIMINARY NUMBERS BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NW MEXICO WILL ENHANCE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THE INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLIER
PROJECTIONS...SO LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO APPEAR UNTIL A FEW
HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT. ONCE RETURNING THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER SHOULD
BE BUOYANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER OVERNIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. WITH THE EXPECTED
DELAY IN LOW CLOUD FORMATION UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES BEGINNING AT
DAYBREAK. MODEL TIME SECTIONS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A SOLID
SATURATION LAYER THAT WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
AND KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. MILD AND
CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASING
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO PROMOTE MORE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY
THROUGH NORTH TX AND LIFT NE IN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. DPROG/DT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LOW COULD BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH TIME...SO WILL NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS STILL
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH...WILL ONLY SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT AS
AN ISOLATED ONE FOR NOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL TX AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW 1/2
INCH WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

BY LATE SUNDAY...THE GFS 12Z RUN BECOMES AN OUTLIER AND SOME
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE FROM THIS TO MIGRATE CLOSER TO EARLIER
RUNS...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE MUCH SLOWER ECMWF. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE A STRONGER NORTH WIND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SLIGHTLY COLDER MORNING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NO
FREEZES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE FINAL PORTION OF THE 7 DAY
FORECAST HAS A RATHER FLAT ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WITH MILD IF NOT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  72  58  77  53 /  -   20  10  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  42  70  56  76  52 /  -   20  10  40  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  71  57  76  52 /  -   20  10  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  70  53  76  46 /  -   10  10  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  76  58  85  53 /  -   -   -   10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        42  69  54  74  48 /  -   10  10  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  74  58  81  52 /  -   10  10  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  70  56  75  51 /  -   20  10  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   46  71  59  74  61 /  -   20  10  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  73  60  79  53 /  -   20  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  73  59  80  54 /  -   20  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32