Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280826

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
326 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Issue today clouds and temperatures. South-southeast wind 10-15
kts keeping the fog at bay at many spots....other than some 4-5sm
stuff. Exception is area around Gwinner where earlier clear sky
and a tad lighter wind helped to develop some fog. Nearby Forman
DOT webcam shows fog has improved there. Otherwise fog so far not
an issue. What has occurred is that the low clouds have been
clearing overnight from the south and the low clouds have cleared
out of DVL, GFK, TVF sites. Considerable high clouds over the area
as 500 mb short wave moves east well north of the International
border should prevent a radiatonal fog resurgence. But something
to watch as been wrong before. Plus winds do go lighter toward
sunrise in E ND and RRV as front approaches from the west. Low
pressure will move east through southern Manitoba today and a cold
front/trough of low pressure will move through with winds shifting
the west over eastern ND this morning-midday and into NW/WC MN
later today. Provided low clouds do not reform by sunrise and we
can see some sun later today as high clouds thin some, west winds
should push high temps well into the 50s and 60s.

Cold advection will ensue tonight as winds turn more northwest.
Stratocu may well come back in in this cold advection. Any risk of
very light precip is right along the Intl border this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Saturday will be a cool day with likely lower clouds back into the
area in cold advection. There will be a fast moving short wave
through the central Plains Saturday. 00z ECMWF is a tad farther
north and stronger with the rain chances into southern ND vs a tad
farther south and drier GFS/GEM. Will maintain pops for light rain
along the SD border Saturday.  Some clearing Saturday night with
high overhead will give lows near the freezing mark. Saturday will
see return flow set up and temps a tad milder. Rain chances return
Sun night ahead of next stronger system due to move into the N
Plains Monday.

For the Monday through Thursday period...
Models in general agreement this run with ECMWF the most consistent
over the last few runs.

By Monday and Monday night...a wave crosses the area providing
another chance for measurable precipitation. For now...looking at an
initial round of pcpn associated with a warm front...with wrap
around moisture behind the cold front. Data indicate rain as the
main form of pcpn at this time as temperatures are forecast to be on
the warmer side. Tuesday the precipitation will move
out of the area and cooler conditions are expected in its wake.
A weak trof is expected to cross the area on Wednesday bringing a
slight chance for sprinkles...but otherwise look for slightly
warmer and drier conditions through the rest of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Updated clearing of IFR and low end MVFR clouds
has been pretty significant. DVl, TVF, FAR and GFK now out of the
low clouds. BJI may well clear out as well. Some light fog though
in the MVFR range vsby wise. Could possibly be pockets of 1-3SM
fog in spots yet this morning. Winds will turn westerly at most
sites later in the morning/afternoon.




LONG TERM...Hoppes/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle/Voelker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.