Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 010455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1155 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Other than a few minor tweaks to fit current radar, no major

UPDATE Issued at 940 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

The low pressure system continues to move into our western
counties, with one mass of rain in the central Red River Valley
near the low center and bands further west wrapping around. Bumped
up POPs in the central counties and that area should lift north
through the rest of the evening. More scattered activity over the
Devils Lake Basin has shown some really strong low level vorticity
but so far no reports of any funnels and low level CAPE will be
ending shortly after sunset. Will keep highest POPs in the
northern CWA transitioning to northeast counties through the rest
of the night. Lightning should diminish in the next few hours so
will go all showers after midnight.

UPDATE Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Adjusted POPs to fit current radar trends in the next few hours
as the main low pressure system continues to slowly rotate into
the western counties. Extended thunder mention a bit longer as
there should be some small CAPE values hanging around for the next
few hours until the sun goes down. Storms are producing pea sized
hail at most but with the upper low overhead will monitor the
non-supercell tornado parameter until sunset.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Main forecast challenge remains dealing with the weather elements
associated with the stacked low over central ND. As of 3 pm,
seeing quite a bit of convective cloud cover east of the low, or
over most of this FA. Much more stratiform clouds behind it over
western ND. Looking at the SPC meso page, a thin ribbon of 1000
SBCAPE has developed along the Canadian border between Pembina and
Bottineau. The non supercell tornado product has been highlighting
one area around KBIS and another area northwest of KMOT. Sfc map
shows a boundary extending from the low near KMOT, northeast into
southern Manitoba, then southeast into portions of NW MN. Regional
radars show some cells from east of KHCO to near Brandon Manitoba,
which may be the area to watch this evening for funnels or weak
tornadoes. However with cold temps aloft and the presence of the
low, could get a few reports of these about anywhere in central or
eastern ND. Otherwise expect some showers/ISO storms working into
the FA from the west this evening. Most of the high resolution
guidance indicates the most activity working into east central ND,
then lift it into the northern Red River Valley late. Some of
these echoes will linger into Wed as the low progresses ENE. Best
pcpn chances Wed should be around the Lake of the Woods. This pcpn
should exit out of the FA Wed night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

FA should finally be free of this low pressure system by Thu with
lighter winds and a little more sun. Next sfc low moves in from
the NW Thu night and will linger into Friday.

For Fri night through Tuesday...Upper level short wave will exit
the area on Saturday with rain showers ending. Upper level trough
to hang up a bit to our east and with cold air aloft could see a
few showers over northern MN into Sunday as well. For Monday and
Tuesday generally dry weather as some upper level ridging moves
into the northern Plains. The northern edge of this upper ridge
may see some weak disturbances pass through and will have a low
chance for a few showers Mon and Tues along Canadian border.
Provided we get some sun temps should be near normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

The low pressure system continues to move into the Red River
Valley, with showers at all but KFAR. Will keep the VCSH or even
-SHRA mention going through much of the rest of the night. Have
some lowered vis at KGFK for a short time, but only 5SM. Ceilings
will start to come down in the next few hours to MVFR, with some
IFR possible by morning. Conditions should return to VFR by
afternoon. Winds will shift around to the northwest by the
departing low pressure, and become quite gusty over 20 kts
tomorrow afternoon before diminishing in the evening.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Godon/Riddle
AVIATION...JR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.