Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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943
FXUS65 KGJT 101106
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

WE CAN EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS AN AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA...AND LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EAST.

FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AT
MOST LOCATIONS...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THOSE COLD AND
INVERTED VALLEYS AND BASINS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO
INCLUDING THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN. THOSE SAME INVERTED VALLEYS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PATCHY LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG OR HAZE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AGAIN MODIFY A LITTLE...BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS INDICATED THAT QUIET AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST. VALLEYS WHICH HAVE BEEN TRAPPED BENEATH
PERSISTENT INVERSIONS CAN EXPECT ONLY MODEST GAINS IN TEMPERATURE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RECURRENT FOG/HAZE DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS SHOWN TO FLATTEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES ONSHORE
FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA AND ELKHEAD MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ACCORDING TO THE GFS. IN CONTRAST...IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS TROUGH IS MUCH SHALLOWER AND FASTER HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
THE AREA. SINCE MODELS STRUGGLE TO REACH CONSENSUS WILL LEAVE LOW
END POPS OVER THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

THE EC AND GFS WERE SOMEHOW MORE CONSISTENT IN THE LATER PERIODS
WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH A SHALLOW RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO BUY
OFF ON THIS SOLUTION SO KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW. MOISTURE PETERS
OUT BY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SLIDE BY A FEW DEGREES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY BUT REBOUND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

STAGNANT AIR TRAPPED BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION OVER THE EASTERN
UINTA BASIN AND THE GRAND FLAT OF EAST-CENTRAL UTAH WILL BRING
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN FOG/HAZE THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS WILL
IMPACT KVEL AND POSSIBLY KCNY THROUGH 16Z. IN ADDITION...ASOS
INDICATED LIFR CIGS OVER KCAG DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THIS APPEARED TO
BE LOCALIZED BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED FOG PRODUCT SO EXPECT
MORNING SUN WILL BURN THE LOW DECK OFF BY 16Z AS WELL.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



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