Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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842
FXUS63 KGRB 110911
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
311 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS.

COLD NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WAS STILL PRODUCING CLOUDS AND
SCT FLURRIES OVER NC/FAR NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS
AND LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS
LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON.

A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
FAR NORTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT...THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA ON FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH
H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -27 TO -29 C BY EVENING. COLD NW FLOW WILL
CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP IN VILAS COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT...AND ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI ON FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
QUITE DRY...SO ONLY MINOR ACCUMS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED
IN VILAS COUNTY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO EAST...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO WEST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTHWEST...AND LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS SOUTHEAST. BLUSTERY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DEAMPLIFICATION WILL
OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MODIFYING TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL.  AFTER A DRY PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL SEE PERIODIC
SNOW CHANCES RETURN AS RELATIVELY WARMER AIR TRIES TO RETURN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  WILL PUT SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHT INTO THE
GFS...WHICH IS BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BITTERLY COLD ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WHEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  TRAJECTORIES ARE ACCEPTABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS IN THE SNOW BELT OF VILAS COUNTY...BUT THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS COMBINED WITH TEMPS BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL
LEAD TO ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF POWDERY SNOW. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS FALLING
WELL BELOW ZERO.  COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WIND CHILLS
WILL FALL INTO THE 20 TO 35 BELOW RANGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.  WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE A SOLID BET DURING
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS
MODERATE SOME. BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO TANK IN THE EVENING...THEN REBOUND SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS
CIRRUS ARRIVES.  WILL DROP LOW TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MODELS STILL PROJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AS THE PATTERN
CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY.  DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE DUE TO A FAIRLY LARGE
SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.  BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES WITH THE SYSTEM...MOSTLY LIKELY SUB-
ADVISORY.  POSSIBLY ANOTHER SYSTEM TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THAT COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES.
THEN A SURGE OF WARM AIR COULD ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MVFR LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT AND EVEN TRACKED SOUTH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH RHI SOCKED IN AND AUW ON THE EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS. 925 MB MOISTURE SHOWS RHI WILL PROBABLY SEE THESE
CLOUDS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL SOMETIME
THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WINDS TURN WESTERLY. AUW IS A BIT TRICKIER
AS IT IS ON THE EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO
PUSH THESE CLOUDS AWAY FROM THIS AIRPORT. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP
THE LOW CLOUDS IN AT AUW FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
CAVEAT THAT THEY MAY NEED TO BE IN THERE A BIT LONGER. ONCE THESE
LAKE CLOUDS DISSIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI



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