Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 260842
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
342 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A PRETTY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN HAS SETTLED ACRS
NOAM. THE MAIN WESTERLIES WILL STAY ACRS CANADA. A WEAKER BUT
VERY ENERGETIC SRN STREAM WL REMAIN ACRS THE CONUS...WITH THE
MEAN TROF POSN OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND A RIDGE NEAR THE EAST
COAST.

THE GENERAL SWLY UPR FLOW WL FEED GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
RGN...LIKELY RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SIG PCPN. PCPN AMNTS
ARE LIKELY TO END UP WELL ABV NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS WL
REMAIN MILD FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH A COOL-DOWN IS
LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND AS STG NRN STREAM UPR TROF PROGRESSES ACRS
SRN CANADA AND DRIVES A COOL CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE SEWD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES RGN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LOTS OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH THIS FCST. SHRTWV EJECTING NEWD
FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WL BRING STRENGTHENING FRONTAL WV THROUGH
THE RGN TDA/TNGT. THE SFC LOW IS LIKELY TO TRACK FM SW-NE WI...SO
AT LEAST THE SERN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
GIVEN THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE /SFC DWPTS IN THE MID 60S F HEADING
NWD FM IL/ THAT CERTAINLY OPENS THE DOOR TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SVR WX. BUT THERE ARE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT FACTORS THAT COULD
WORK AGAINST SVR WX AS WELL. FIRST...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. SECOND...FAIRLY STG LARGE-SCALE
FORCING IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA...SO THERE MAY
BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR INDIVIDUAL STORMS TO ORGANIZE. WL NEED
TO MONITOR THE SITN CLOSELY GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHEAR TO INCREASE THIS AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SFC LOW...BUT WL PROBABLY NEED TO GET SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLDS AND HAVE THE ONSET OF PCPN DELAYED FM WHAT IS NOW FCST
FOR A MORE SIG SVR THREAT TO MATERIALIZE.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TRACK OF THE SFC WV. UPR DEFORMATION ZONE WL PIVOT THROUGH THIS
REGION...AND GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES IS LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ALSO POSSIBLE.

STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE VALUES FOR
TEMPS...THOUGH LESSENED THE DIURNAL RANGE A BIT DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CLDS AND PCPN.

THE VERY MOIST AIR WITH HIGH DWPTS HEADED NWD ACRS LAKE MICHIGAN
COULD BRING DENSE FOG TO THE LAKESHORE AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE PCPN WED NGT THRU THU...NEXT ROUND
OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS SET TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK BEFORE A DRYING TREND IS NOTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON
TIMING/EXTENT OF THE PCPN...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ON FRI...AND
DEPTH OF COOLING FOR WEEKEND TEMPS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO PULL TO OUR EAST WED
EVENING...BUT MAY NEED TO MENTION A LINGERING CHC POP IN THE EAST
FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...HI PRES OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRES OVER THE NRN PLAINS WL CONT TO FEED WARM/
MOIST AIR INTO WI WITH A WRMFNT DRAPED OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE
GREAT LAKES. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHWRS IN THE VCNTY
OF THE WRMFNT...BUT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AIMED AT THE UPR MS
VALLEY...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY OVRNGT. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR 50S NORTH AND LAKESHORE...MID 50S CNTRL/E-CNTRL
WI.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS NE INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY ON THU AS THE WRMFNT
LIFTS NORTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS PLACES NE WI SQUARELY IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH ANY PCPN EITHER TO OUR NORTH WITH THE WRMFNT...OR
WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW/CDFNT. 8H TEMPS TO BE AROUND +14C
AND IF CLOUDS CAN STAY AWAY LONG ENUF...INLAND LOCATIONS COULD
EASILY REACH THE 80-85 DEG RANGE (WARMEST CNTRL WI).

CHCS FOR SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS BEGIN TO INCREASE THU NGT FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE SLOW-MOVING CDFNT EDGES CLOSER AND SHORTWAVES RIDE
NEWD INTO WI AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPR TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. SHWRS/TSTMS STILL LOOK LIKELY ON FRI AS THE CDFNT FINALLY
PUSHES EAST INTO WI. CAPES DO APPROACH 1K J/KG...LI`S FALL TO
AROUND ZERO AND BULK SHEAR VALUES DO REACH 35 KTS. PROBLEM FOR
SEVERE WOULD BE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT MAY BE NEEDED TO ALLOW ANY STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORM STRENGTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAX TEMPS FOR FRI WL BE LIMITED TO THE
LWR 70S NORTH/ALONG LAKE MI...UPR 70S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

AS THE CDFNT CONTS TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND...
PCPN CHCS SHOULD FOLLOW SUITE AND DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
FOR FRI NGT...THE FNT IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING WI...
THUS WL NEED TO CARRY POPS ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI WHERE
0.25-0.75" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. BY SAT...AN AREA OF HI PRES WL BE
SITUATED OVER ONTARIO AND FUNNELING DRIER AIR INTO WI ON BRISK NE
WINDS. PCPN SHOULD CONT TO PUSH SOUTH...THUS ANTICIPATE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA BY SAT AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ON
SAT TO BE MUCH COOLER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LWR 50S ALONG
THE LAKE MI SHORELINE...TO NEAR 60 DEGS ACROSS CNTRL WI.

HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF/GEM MODELS THAT ALLOW THE HI
PRES TO DOMINATE NE WI WEATHER AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS
THE OLD CDFNT CLOSER TO WI ALONG WITH BEING FARTHER NORTH WITH A
NEARLY CLOSED UPR LOW. A DRY EASTERLY WIND TO PREVAIL...THUS A
COOL END TO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50`S LAKESIDE...
MAINLY LWR 60S ELSEWHERE.

THE HI PRES IS FCST TO SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/
NE CONUS BY NEXT MON...BUT THE WRN FRINGES OF THE SFC HI TO STILL
REACH THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE WEAKENING UPR LOW TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF IL AND NOT BE A FACTOR IN OUR
WEATHER. THEREFORE...PREFER TO RUN A DRY FCST WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GENERALLY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS DUE TO
LOW CLDS AND PCPN. THE MOST PERSISTENT LOW CLDS AND FOG WL BE OVER
N-C WI...WITH A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO THE S AND E.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



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