Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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544
FXUS63 KGRB 231118
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
518 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday
Issued at 313 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The winter storm has wound down for the most part, with an
additional band of light snow and or freezing drizzle passing
through this morning as the main low passes to the southeast.
Model soundings show north-central Wisconsin should mainly be
snow, with snow or freezing drizzle possible further south with
mid level drying depriving the low level moisture of ice nuclei at
times. Despite the mixed precipitation the impact from the morning
precipitation is expected to be minimal as most roads have already
frozen over or have been treated, making the impact from
additional freezing drizzle a low impact. That being said some
roadways, especially secondary and untreated, could remain snow
or ice covered for the morning commute. Will continue to highlight
the danger with SPS statements through the morning.

Once the low and any remaining precipitation exit to the east,
temperatures today will remain fairly steady or slowly fall as
cold air advection on strong northerly winds brings cooler air
into the region with a high pressure building in from the west.
The strong winds will cause wind chills to fall into the teens
across much of the area, with single digits across the far north
making the air feel colder than the thermometer would suggest
today.

A colder airmass in place and some clearing this evening will
allow temperatures a fall precipitously across the area with a
ridge of high pressure over the western Great Lakes region. Given
the current setup will go several degrees below the previous
forecast across the north with lows ranging from around zero
across the north and around 10 degrees across central and east-
central Wisconsin.

Dry weather will continue on Wednesday as the high slides off to
the east as dry weather continues. Despite the cold start to the
morning, highs on Wednesday will rise to a respectable lower to
middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 313 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Low amplitude upper level flow is expected during this part of the
forecast.

An upstream ridge and surface high pressure should keep the area
dry through Friday. There are only some slight chances for
precipitation with the passage of a cold front on Friday night.
There is a chance for snow showers in northern Wisconsin Saturday
night into Sunday night as another cold front passes.

Expect above normal temperatures throughout this forecast period.
Highs should warm to around 20 degrees above normal on Friday
before cooling to just a few degrees warmer than normal by
Monday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 511 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Light snow or freezing drizzle will persist this morning as a low
pressure system pulls away from the region. MVFR conditions are
expected this morning, eventually improving to VFR this afternoon
and lasting into tonight as high pressure builds in across the
area.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Gusty northerly Gales in the wake of a departing low will develop
today across the nearshore areas. Recent guidance indicates that
Gales are likely across all areas this morning, therefore will
expand the Gale Warning to include the nearshore areas south of
Sturgeon Bay. In addition the Gales north of Sturgeon Bay on Lake
Michigan look likely to continue into the afternoon hours and will
extend the Warning for that area through the afternoon. Once the
Gales subside there will likely need to be a Small Craft Advisory
for the Lake Michigan areas for the rest of the afternoon into
this evening before winds and waves die down around midnight.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Kurimski
MARINE.........Kurimski



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