Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 251312
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
912 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE FROST
ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FAVORABLE LEVELS.  NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 315 AM...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIG A 500 MB LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST STATES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH LARGE RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL TURN THE FLOW NW AND INCREASE ATOP THE CWFA...AND HELP
DROP A DRY/WEAK SFC FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
QUITE DRY TODAY...SO EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND A RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPS
FROM COOL EARLY MORNING LOWS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
70S ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONT...A SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE NC MTNS WITHIN NWLY FLOW. AN
OUTSIDE CHC OF A LIGHT ISOLD SHOWER BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NRN
MTNS. BUT IF ANYTHING...MAINLY PATCHY SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. I
WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NRN MTNS. THE
REST OF THE CWFA WILL LIKELY JUST EXPERIENCE A WIND SHIFT FROM SW
BACK TO NW. WITH WARMER AFTN HIGHS...AND INCREASED/LINGERING MIXING
OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST FEW
NIGHTS...MAINLY IN THE 40S IN THE MTNS AND UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...ON SUNDAY...BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...H85 FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND HEIGHT RISES SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY...MARGINAL GUST POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...PROVIDING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THE H5 RIDGE
AXIS WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION...WITH THE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS BY 0Z TUES. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO L80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SAT...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD...WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON WED. THE COMBINATION OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...0Z GFS INDICATES
THAT A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROF WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION. I
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE LATE WORK WEEK...KEEPING POPS
GENERALLY IN THE SCHC RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z SUN AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC AND CALM TO LIGHT NW/NE WINDS THRU
THIS MORNING. CONTINUED SKC OR FEW250...WITH A LIGHT SW/WSW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME VERY
SHALLOW LLVL MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE NC MTNS IN NWLY FLOW.
SOME OF THE CLOUDS MAY REACH KAVL. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE CLOUDS
AT MVFR LVL. BUT CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION TO THE KAVL
TAF.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW
PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH/NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK



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