Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 240714
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
314 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN LOW SITUATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL PRODUCE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.



&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 990 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE EVENT THAT SHOULD FALL JUST
SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT TO OUR EAST LATER TODAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WITH DIMINISHING WIND TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S. PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND BEGINS WITH A LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS DUALING LOW CENTERS WITH A NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN ONE TRACKING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE RESULTING
TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY THE DUALING LOWS CIRCLE TOGETHER OFFSHORE
AS A 500MB CUT OFF DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF
BLOCKING PATTERN THAT WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
ATLANTIC PROVINCES AS WELL AS THE US SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER CUT
OFF LOWS WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FILLS IN THE GAP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA
RIGHT IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STATIONARY LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE EASTERN MAINE LOOKS TO
SEE LIGHT RAINFALL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE MOVE WEST IT
GETS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER, WITH THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS EAST WEST GRADIENT WILL MAKE THE FORECAST FOR THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME PROBLEMATIC AS WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR SKIES WHILE
EASTERNMOST REGIONS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT PRECIP AND
OVERCAST SKIES.

SOME MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE BLOCK AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WOULD
PARADOXICALLY RESULT IN COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS FLOW ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS ONSHORE. THIS QUICK RIDGE IS
THEN FOLLOW BY A MAJOR LOW TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT SPREAD BETWEEN VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES
IN TERMS OF WHEN THE BLOCK MIGHT PROGRESS, AND HAVE OPTED TO SLOW
THINGS DOWN A BIT...PUSHING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OUR AREA
BACK TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST.




&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KT TODAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CEILINGS WILL DESCEND INTO
MVFR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY BEHIND THE
INTENSE OCEAN LOW...FOLLOWED BY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL BE QUIET ON THE WATERS. DESPITE THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA AS THE
SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK. THE CALM CONTINUES INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DRAMATICALLY TODAY OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY MEET METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE IS TELLING US THAT FUELS
ARE STILL TOO WET TO BURN SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE THERE FOR NOW. IN YORK COUNTY MAINE...WE EXPECT SIMILAR
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER FUELS AND A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. I EXPECT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CURTIS






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