Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 211938
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ANCHOR OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF PRECIP THAT CROSSED SW ME...AND BROUGHT SOME MODERATE
RAFL...HAS MOVED NE AND WEAKENED. THIS WAS SET OFF BY SOME BRIEF
MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ALSO...SEEING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG
SFC TD BOUNDARY IN THE ERN ZONES...WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUN
AND HEATING. THESE SHOULD TRACK NNW ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TONIGHT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA MOVE INTO SRN AND
WRN NH THIS EVENING...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD EWD
TOWARD ME...WITH LITTLE CHC OF ANY PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AND MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MINS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME MID 50 READINGS IN THE
MTNS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...LOOK FOR A WEAK 500 MB WAVE TO ALLOW A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR IN FROM THE NE...WHICH COULD SET OFF OF SCT SHRA....ESPECIALLY
IN THE MTNS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL SHIFT TO EAST AND DEEPEN A
BIT...SO IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FRI NIGHT WITH MINS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SWD THRU THE REGION ON SAT. AS IT DOES
SO A STEADY CLEARING WILL WORK IN FROM N TO S. IF BOUNDARY HANGS
UP IN SRN NH...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT POP UP DURING
PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES MOVES IN AND DOMINATES THE WX
THRU MIDWEEK. RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES EWD...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST
OFF TO THE W. THIS WILL PREVENT THE SERIOUS HEAT FROM WORKING ALL
THE WAY EWD...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A COLD FNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W. HOWEVER...ATTM THEY DISAGREE ON TIMING.
PREFER THE SLOWER TIMING AT THIS POINT...WITH A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PERHAPS DROPPING TO LIFR AT KLEB/KAUG...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FRI AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A SURGE OF NE WINDS TO AROUND
15 KTS ON FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO


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