Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 061617
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1217 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING GENERALLY COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK TODAY
AS SOME DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
MORE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE ON
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1215 PM...THIS ESTF UPDATE MAKES MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM
GRIDS THAT REFLECT SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS THE LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
950 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND INGESTED THE 13Z MESONET INTO
NEAR TERM GRIDS. THE UPDATED COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL ALSO
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

PREV DISC...
811 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE.... JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.
RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BUT CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE THIS MORNING. AT 07Z RAIN HAD ENDED ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS MAINE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST GUSTING TO 20KTS
ALONG THE COAST WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES OUT. FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WE SEE
A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THERE MAY
BE SOME SUNNY PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BY EVENING THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE BY EARLY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM IS
VERY WEAK AND IT ESSENTIALLY FALLS APART AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARDS,
LEAVING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. TOTAL QPF
WILL BE MINIMAL / LESS THAN 0.1 INCH /.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIGHT CLOSED LOW PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK CURRENTLY OVER THE
CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG CYCLONE CENTER
MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA. EVENTUALLY THIS CLOSED LOW CENTER WILL
BECOME PART OF THE OMEGA BLOCK AS IT REINTENSIFIES. BY THIS POINT
HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN CONUS
LEAVING THE REMAINS OF THE QUASI-OMEGA BLOCK CUTOFF OVER CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN STATES.

WE`LL SEE INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES A RAIN COOLED
DAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAKING IN THE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL
MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS FROM AN ACCOMPANYING 45 KT LLJ. AS THE RAIN
ENDS WINDS WILL STAY UP HELPING TO DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN
FROM CANADA.

ON MONDAY MUCH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL WARM UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS IN THE
25-35 MPH RANGE LIKELY. THANKFULLY THE RECENT AND FORECASTED
RAINFALL WILL KEEP THE WILD FIRE THREAT LOW.

MONDAY NIGHT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH. PARTY CLOUDY SKIES AND WEST WINDS WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 60S OVER
SOUTHERN NH ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ON WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS OUT
OF CANADA LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
FRIDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES. MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN WITH A DECREASE TO MVFR FOR CON MHT AND
PSM BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND FOR ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY WILL HAVE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...PROBABLY VARYING BETWEEN MVFR-
IFR MOSTLY EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. HEAVIER RAIN ARRIVES ON
SUN BRINGING SEVERAL HOURS OF MORE RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FOR MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SEAS
WILL DECREASE BY SATURDAY MORNING,AT WHICH POINT WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE. BETWEEN THE SEAS AND THE WIND, EXPECT SCA TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT LIGHT E FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO AROUND 5
OR 6 FT FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...MAINLY IN SWELL. A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THRU ON SUNDAY AND W-NW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LATE
SUN NIGHT INTO MON ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL BE HIGH TO MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED EACH DAY. A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT...PERHAPS A
QUARTER INCH...OF RAIN WILL FALL ON SUNDAY. COOL AND MOIST WEATHER
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING FIRE DANGER IN
CHECK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO CREATE A THREAT FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE AT PORTLAND IS 11.9FT AT 11:35PM
FRIDAY. WINDS... WHILE LIGHT... WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN ONSHORE IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
SEAS WHICH REMAIN IN THE 5 FOOT RANGE FROM THE PRIOR STORM WILL
SERVE TO DRIVE WATER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND PRODUCE A THREAT FOR
MINOR EROSION AND SPLASH-OVER. SINCE THE SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN FACTOR HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A WATCH AND LET THE DAY
SHIFT ASSESS FOR ADVISORY OR WARNING ISSUANCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$
ES



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