Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 282030
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXIT THE MIDCOAST REGION OF MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND A FRESH SNOWPACK
WILL LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT ALL
COMMUNITIES WILL BE AT OR BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHORELINE TOWNS REMAINING ABOVE ZERO FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY.
OVERALL...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEREAFTER...THE FLOW WILL
BECOME NEUTRALLY TILTED BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE COOL ON THURSDAY. DEW POINTS
WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERN BLOCK...PART OF THE CONTINUAL +PNA PATTER AT 500MB HAS SET
UP TO PRODUCE A STEADY WAVE GENERATOR OVER FAR WRN CANADA...WHICH
WILL SEND WAVES THRU THE BASE OF THE COLD AND LARGE SCALE TROUGH
OVER ERN NOAM. LOOK FOR A COLD AND SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING THE GULF OF ME FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW BREAKS OUT
FROM W TO E THU NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF
UPPER LVL ENERGY DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY...500MB
LOW TILTS NEGATIVE AND STARTS CLOSING OFF. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC LOW
TO INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
TO ENHANCE SNOW AS MID-LVL DEFORMATION ENHANCES AND BANDING
DEVELOPS. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL BE TOO FAR E FOR THE HEAVIER
SNOWS TO PUSH BACK W INTO NH...BUT THEY WILL LKLY MOVE INTO PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND MAYBE WRN ME FRI AFT AND EVE. A WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDING IN ME ZONES. SEVERAL
HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH 6 TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 10
INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS. IN NH...WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

THE LOW SHIFTS E BY SAT MORNING AND THE MID-UPPER LVL SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FILL...SO ALTHOUGH SOME -SN MAY LINGER INTO SAT
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN ERN ZONES...EXPECT NW FLOW TO TAKE OVER
AND CAA ADVECTION TO BEGIN IN EARNEST WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COLD AIR SETTLES BACK IN SAT NIGHT AND SUN...ALTHOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND EURO NOW AGREE
IN KEEPING SFC LOW WELL OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE
CMC DEVELOPS FAIRLY POTENT COASTAL LOW. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPREADS
REMAIN QUITE HIGH WHEN IT COMES TO SFC LOW POSITION...SO HAVE
STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME MODERATION BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDS OR LOWER LKLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AT
ALL TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AT NH SITES FRI
NIGHT...BUT WILL PROB FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LINGER IN ME THRU
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS ON SAT.
HOWEVER...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND THE PENOBSCOT BAY TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR SCAS. SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET AS WELL.

LONG TERM...GALES WILL LKLY BE NEEDED IN NW FLOW FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
     154.

&&

$$



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