Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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569
FXHW60 PHFO 140206
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
406 PM HST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...WHILE GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS ALLOW FOR LEEWARD LAND
AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU AND KAUAI. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH IS DRIVING EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...BUT THE FLOW
VEERS EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
THE FRONT.

AN UPPER RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE STATE ALLOWING STABLE AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION
OF 9 KFT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES BETWEEN 0.9 TO 1
INCH. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE STATE IMPACTING BOTH WINDWARD AND LEEWARD AREAS...WITH NO
SHOWERS ON RADAR.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR / MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AND MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND DIRECTION FOR KAUAI AND
OAHU BY LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI.

A TRANSITION TO A BREEZY AND RATHER WET TRADE WIND PATTERN IS
FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH THE DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT CLOSE TO KAUAI ON MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS
LIKELY ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS OVER THAT
ISLAND...WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDWARD BIG ISLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL ISLANDS
FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TRADE
WINDS WILL FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ONTO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREA...EXPECT LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS TO ALSO
RECEIVE SOME RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. MOST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
STATE...THUS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE. NO HEAVY RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
SINKING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
PUSHES THE LINGERING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND BRINGS A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE STATE FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WINDWARD SHOWERS PUSHING INTO E AND NE FACING SLOPES. NO AIRMETS CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR AREAS AROUND
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...EXCEPT FOR MAALAEA BAY...DUE TO
BREEZY EAST WINDS PRODUCED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY DROP OFF SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED AND EXPANDED IN COVERAGE FOR SEAS ON
SUNDAY DUE TO AN INCOMING WEST NORTHWEST SWELL TO THE ISLANDS.
THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES PUSHING IN WITH A STRONG HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST.

THE EARLIER MENTIONED WEST NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SPREAD WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOES INTO
EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SURF BUILDING ON NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU IN THE MORNING...THEN SPREADING
TO OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG TRADES PRODUCED BY NEXT WEEK/S HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST MAY
ALSO BRING HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOME ISLANDS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NORTH
WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST
WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...MORRISON



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