Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXHW60 PHFO 242004
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1004 AM HST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MAUI COUNTY LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN STALL AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND
BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...TURNING NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF
THE HAWAII THIS MORNING...MOVING EAST AT AROUND 30 MPH. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS CAUSING STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER THE STATE...RESULTING IN WINDS
AT THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA WITHIN THE ADVISORY LEVEL
RANGE TODAY...BLOWING WESTERLY AT 35 TO 50 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
SEE THE NPWHFO PRODUCT ON OUR WEBSITE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
WIND ADVISORY.

NEAR THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING OVER HAWAII TODAY. THE
BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND MOVING ONTO
MOLOKAI AT THIS TIME. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF
BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT.
THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THE
RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL
ONLY LASTING AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE
SHOWER BAND WILL MOVE OVER MAUI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE BIG ISLAND LATE TODAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI TO
MOLOKAI THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS CLOUD BAND...A LARGE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST...EXPECT BREEZY NORTH WINDS TODAY WITH EVENTUALLY MORE
SUNSHINE LATER TODAY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MUCH DRIER AND GUSTY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A SLIGHT BOOST TO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE 15 KT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. AS OF
19Z...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN MOLOKAI. SHOWERS EMBEDDED
ALONG THE FRONT WILL CARRY MVFR TO ISOL IFR CONDITIONS AND TOPS TO
15 KFT. CONTINUING AT THIS SPEED...EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS OVER
PHOG AROUND 21Z. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS...AS WELL AS BKN-OVC SKIES BETWEEN 5
AND 6 KFT. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC WILL REMAIN OVER OAHU UNTIL
21Z AND MAUI COUNTY UNTIL FRONT AND CONDITIONS CLEAR THE AREA.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO BE PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MODELS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED MOD TURB IN THE
AIRMET TANGO BULLETIN AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS
OVER MOST MARINE ZONES THROUGH 6 AM HST TUESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT REMAIN STRONG...WITH THE LIKELY RESULT OF
THE SCA CONTINUING FOR TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND
BIG ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO WINDS.

THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SURF HEIGHTS TO
ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF ALL SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE ROUGH AND CHOPPY SURF ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF
OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.