Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 230449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1149 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

IR Satellite imagery showing some high clouds moving over SE Texas
but still VFR. Calm winds are expected through the morning but
then increase through the afternoon from the SE. Overall no
aviation concerns the next 24 hours.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/

High pressure at the surface over Mississippi was ridging into SE
Texas early this evening. A few clouds may begin to overspread the
area later tonight from mid and high level moisture over south
Texas. Did a few tweaks but the current forecast is on track.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/

Surface analysis shows high pressure has moved over the
Mississippi River Valley allowing for winds to turn E to SE this
afternoon. Winds should decouple again overnight with mostly clear
skies. Winds pick up a bit more tomorrow from the SE. Moisture
will be returning from the Gulf so may need to watch for fog
Monday morning.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/

A beautiful afternoon continues to unfold across Southeast Texas
with 3 PM CDT temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80 underneath
sunny skies. Quiet and dry conditions are expected to continue
through the overnight hours, with surface high pressure sliding
farther east of the region with time and allowing light east to
southeast winds to become more southerly during the day Sunday.
Low-lying or sheltered areas may see localized patchy fog early
Sunday morning, but better fog chances would be Monday and beyond
for areas west of Interstate 45 as onshore winds allow for some
slow low level moisture return. Otherwise, expect overnight low
temperatures to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s inland and low
60s along the coast under mostly clear skies.

Afternoon water vapor imagery and morning upper air analysis
showed broad ridging in place across Texas, with a shortwave
trough rotating north out of central Mexico. This disturbance is
expected to move into Southwest Texas tomorrow, reaching South
Central/Southeast Texas on Monday. Limited available moisture
(forecast soundings showing precipitable water values generally
around an inch or less inland) will make the passage of this
feature relatively uneventful, with little more than increasing
mid and high level clouds heralding its arrival. However, could
see a few isolated showers develop across the coastal waters
Monday into Tuesday as this disturbance slides into the northwest
Gulf. Otherwise expect highs to gradually warm back into the low
to mid 80s through Wednesday, with lows generally in the 60s to
low 70s.

By the middle of the upcoming week, a secondary shortwave trough
looks to reach the Southern Plains from the Pacific and pushing a
weak frontal boundary towards the region on Thursday. This
boundary looks to stall or wash out before reaching Southeast
Texas, keeping the end of the work week dry with highs in the mid
80s and lows in the 60s.


As high pressure moves off to the east, expect light to moderate
onshore winds to develop tonight and tomorrow. Mainly east to
southeast winds will persist across the area through the first
half of the upcoming week. No flags are anticipated. 42


College Station (CLL)      54  83  65  84  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              54  83  63  85  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            66  81  72  83  74 /   0   0  10  10  10




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