Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 032025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND PRECIP IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET. HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS EARLY FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.10 INCHES ON FRIDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO SE TX. AM STILL EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND SO CAN`T RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE NW ZONES AND MID
90S OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST BUT
NEVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TX TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SERIES OF
S/WVS INTO THE REGION THAT HELP TO CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO SE TX THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AND ALSO MAINTAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IT`S A LONG WAY OFF SO JUST BLENDED
THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS OVER LOW
SEAS/EARLY DAY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AVERAGE SOUTHERLIES AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS...SMOOTH
BAY WATERS WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR BOATERS AND BEACH GO`ERS TO EXPERIENCE
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LABOR DAY. NEXT WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES MAY GO UP IF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATES WESTWARD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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