Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 300405
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1205 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE EARLY PARTS
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA AROUND
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER ALL BUT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND
THESE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO OUR
REGION. HOWEVER SO FAR I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY INDICATION OF THIS.
MODELS INDICATE ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS AND WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT POPS THERE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.  FARTHER WEST WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM INDY
AND POINTS TO THE WEST AND NORTH.

I EXPECT EVEN IN THE EAST ALL CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER
BY 06Z-07Z.

RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM
AND SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER ON OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AROUND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT...APPEARS MOST OF THE LIFT/ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THREAT
WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IT MAY CLOSE
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS.

ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD IS ON
WEDNESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS BY THAT TIME.
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST PRECIPITATION THREAT WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE MAY BE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL DROP THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY AT THOSE
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE ACTIVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
DROPS THROUGH THE REGION IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM
START WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OP GFS
APPEARS TO BE SHOWING ITS PROGRESSIVE BIAS WITH SYSTEMS SO TYPICALLY
SEEN AT BEYOND 4 DAYS OUT. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WHICH DELAY MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE EXTENDED AS
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. PRESENCE OF INSTABILITY
WARRANTS A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD ONTO PRECIP INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS A SECONDARY WAVE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RIDES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PLEASANT BUT COOL WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 300600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME VFR STRATOCU WILL BE ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THESE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT
LEAVING BEHIND SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

MONDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID CLOUD...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.