Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 201016
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
616 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

A ridge of high pressure will begin strengthening today over the
Great Lakes, bringing continued unseasonable warmth and dry
weather to the area for the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

After some patchy dense morning fog, skies should become mostly
clear today as the ridge begins to build over the area.
Temperatures will remain warm for the time of year, with 90 degree
readings possible in the western forecast area. Consensus numbers
appeared reasonable and were generally accepted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

The ridge will continue to be the dominant feature throughout the
short term, thus will continue with a forecast of unseasonably
warm temperatures and no precipitation, albeit in a humid airmass.
Consensus numbers appeared reasonable throughout the period and
were generally accepted with minor tweaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Little change is expected during this forecast period. Weather
conditions should be dry with above normal temperatures.

ECMWF shows strong ridging remaining over the eastern 1/2 of the
United States...keeping all forcing dynamic well north of Indiana,
Meanwhile the ECMWF suggests strong High Pressure building beneath
the ridge...associated with the ongoing subsidence. With Mainly
Southwest flow in place across the area along with a very warm air
mass will trend daily highs and lows at or above the forecast
builder blend which is well above seasonal normals. Partly cloudy
nights and mostly sunny days should work nicely.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 201200Z TAFS/...

Issued at 616 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

IFR/MVFR Fog across the area will quickly burn off after sunrise
as mixing and heating resume. A return to VFR is expected by mid-
morning.

Models suggest High pressure across the area along with subsidence
building aloft as water vapor imagery shows a ridge over Illinois
building eastward. Forecast soundings suggest convective
temperatures maybe reached this afternoon...but drying and
subsidence should prevent deep convection.

Any clouds should be lost this evening as daytime heating is
lost...and CIGS will be unlimited overnight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Nield
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...JP



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