Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 310823
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
422 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Surface high pressure will nudge into the area today, bringing a
break from the thunderstorm chances. Storm chances will return as
early as Monday and persist through the week as multiple
disturbances round an upper level ridge to the southwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Although the airmass will remain somewhat humid, a break from
recent storm chances can be expected today as weak low pressure
shuttles to the east and weak high pressure noses into the area.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable if a bit cool,
similarly to recent days. Should easily reach the low to mid 80s
across the area today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Storm chances will be required again as early as Monday,
continuing through the remainder of the short term as models
depict multiple disturbances rounding the upper ridge centered to
our southwest, and the approach of a frontal system late in the
period.

Consensus temperatures appear reasonable throughout per low level
thermal progs. Near normal temperatures will persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through next Saturday/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016

The ensembles are in good agreement and have been steady in building
southern Plains dome of high pressure northeast over the Ohio Valley
during the middle part of next week. This will push a warm front
northeast over central Indiana Wednesday into Wednesday night and
should result in decent thunderstorm coverage along and ahead of the
front with lesser chances in its wake. This lull should be short-
lived, however as a Hudson Bay vortex is expected to drive a cold
front southeast across central Indiana early next weekend and result
in increased thunderstorm coverage once again.

Look for above normal temperatures through Friday under the
influence of the upper ridge. Then, temperatures should drop to near
normal in the wake of the cold front per the regional blend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 31/0900Z IND TAF Update/...
Issued at 422 AM EDT SUN Jul 31 2016

No changes needed to the TAF.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT SUN Jul 31 2016

Weak area of low pressure will be off into northern areas of PA this
morning allowing high oressure to come down from WI.  Light winds
will allow some areas of fog dropping conditions down to near MVFR
in most areas, but could see some brief IFR visibilities between 10Z
and 12Z.  Should return to VFR by afternoon with some scattered
clouds as mean RH values come down and extend eastward across
central IN.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DWM/MK



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