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000
FXUS63 KIWX 100129
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
929 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA AS SEVERAL
CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD IN THE 30S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE 50S
ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN ITS
WAKE. ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE LIKELY BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL WAA PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT. BROAD AREA OF SFC PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OFF
3-4MB/3 HOURS HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THESE PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINTENANCE OF 10 TO 15 MPH
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND
GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY OR PERHAPS SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST HAVING REACHED MIN TEMPS ALREADY. HAVE SENT EVENING
UPDATE MAINLY TO REFRESH AFTERNOON WORDING AND TO MAKE MINOR
TWEAKS TO SKY/HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT/TOMORROW WITH THE LOCAL AREA
ON THE WARM SIDE OF ACTIVE CLIPPER TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WAA/BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE RELATED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MIXING AS LLJ DROPS
SOUTHEAST WILL LIMIT TEMP FALLS TONIGHT. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO BE
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST.
MELTED SNOW/WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH INVERSION STRENGTHENING
AS ELEVATED FRONT LIFTS THROUGH HINTS AT THIS POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTHEAST OF THE FA. FILTERED SUN BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM SECTOR BECOMING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SUPPORT A
UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY. HIGHS MAY EXCEED 60F IN THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
WHERE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE NOSES IN OVER LITTLE/NO REMAINING
SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLW TO BEGIN THE PD WILL RAPIDLY EVOLVE TWD A MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED PNA STATE BY LT PD AND BEYOND W/UNSEASONABLE COLD
RTNG. POTENTIAL PHASING ISSUES W/POTENT SW IMPULSE DROPPING OUT OF
CANADA REMAIN BUT RELIABLE TRENDS EMERGING AMG MOST MODEL GUIDANCE.
IN FACT EXCEPTIONAL 12Z GEFS CLUSTERING ADDS CERTAIN CONFIDENCE ON
BENDING FCST SIGLY UPWARD TUE NIGHT/WED W/POTENTIAL LT SEASON
SNOWSTORM.

AS SPREAD IN 12Z SOLUTIONS HAD NARROWED CONSIDERABLY W/FVRBL
CONSENSUS TRACK TAKING RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FM THE CNTRL
PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AS NRN/SRN STREAM SW DISTURBANCES
PHASE WWD OVR THE MID MS VALLEY...MODELED DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WHILE
SEMI BRIEF IS XCPD TO BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. FIRST GUESS AMTS OF 4-8
PROBABLE W/HEAVIEST INVOF OF FGEN MAX...MOST LIKELY ORIENTED SW-NE
THROUGH CNTRL CWA ATTM. LIKELY INITIAL WARM BNDRY LYR FAR S MAY
PROMOTE A BRIEF PD OF MIXED PCPN BUT UNDERCUTTING STG CAA WING IN
ASSOCN/W RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW SUGGESTS HOLDING W/ALL SNOW
MENTION TUE NIGHT. OTRWS SYS CONTS TO WRAP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
W/IMPRESSIVE UPSTREAM HGT RISES SPREADING EWD INTO FRI AHD OF
ANOTHER SIG SW DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. ADDNL SNOW COVER
WILL TEMPER BRIEF WARMUP FRI-SAT BFR THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT AGAIN SUN
ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AND SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL ALLOW FOR MAINTENANCE OF SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. HAVE MAINTAINED LLWS MENTION
IN THE 03Z-09Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MID LEVEL CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO CONTINUE TOMORROW
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MARSILI


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