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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221046
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA TODAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S
WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHRTWV OVER NRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE INTO
SRN ONTARIO TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVG TO WRN MI/NW IL BY
THIS EVE. PLUME OF >20C H85 TEMPS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
IA/NRN IL/SRN WI AND SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
AREA ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE NEARLY FULL INSOLATION
COMBINED WITH INCREASED SWLY GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY DEEP MIXING IN OUR AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS AT OR A BIT ABOVE MOS TEMPS... IN THE L90S.

UPR TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AS ROCKIES RIDGE
AMPLIFIES. DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPR LEVEL
TROF MAY ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THE
OTHER HAND... THE LLJ WILL SHIFT WELL TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT SO A
MECHANISM TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. THUS...
HIGHEST POPS MAINTAINED OVER NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE AS FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR IN THIS AREA
WHICH WOULD AID STORM/UPDRAFT LONGEVITY/STRENGTH SHOULD DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOP... SO SVR STORM PSBL. CAA FOLLOWING THE FRONT
SHOULD DROP TEMPS INTO THE M60S NW BY DAYBREAK WHILE SE LIKELY
ONLY FALLS TO THE L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FAVOR THE
HIGH RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS WHICH APPEAR TO REASONABLY
HANDLE THE COLD START CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...GIVEN A SUBSTANTIAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION STILL PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BELIEVE IT WILL BE HARD FOR STORMS TO FORM. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700/500 WILL BE NEAR 8C/KM...BUT THIS AREA
WHICH INCLUDES ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE HARD TO TAP GIVEN VERY STABLE
CONDITIONS BELOW THIS LAYER. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED STORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED.
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY
INCLUDING CUTTING TEMPS 5 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES OVER NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD AIR
INTRUSION WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND GIVEN THE CANADIAN EPS GRAMS
WITH THE MEAN ENSEMBLE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AT FORT WAYNE AROUND 54
DEGREES...FEEL THE GFS/MEX VALUES ARE IN THE PARK. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. MADE FEW CHANGES
TO THIS PERIOD AS THE ONGOING TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS APPEARS ON
TRACK IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST GFS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE OR NO CU TODAY.
CDFNT OVER IA/NEB ATTM WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN INDIANA LATE TONIGHT...
PSBLY ACCOMPANIED BY TSRA WITH THE BEST CHC AT SBN WHERE MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED... WHILE AT FWA RISK STILL SEEMS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS. MODEST SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... SHIFTING TO NW LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


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