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000
FXUS63 KIWX 190956
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
556 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY
FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING TEMPERATURES WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

SPLENDID WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TODAY. RAPIDLY
LIFTING EAST COAST TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION FROM PACIFIC
NORTHWEST CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FORCE BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND
AVA OVER OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND
LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT A MARVELOUS LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. EXPECT NEARLY FULL
SUN...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A FEW DIURNAL CU...AND TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JUNE. COMPETING EFFECTS FOR HIGH TEMPS
TODAY WITH LINGERING THERMAL TROUGH...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
DAY...AND STRONG INSOLATION FROM VERY HIGH JUNE SUN ANGLE. 850MB
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 11C BY THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING THIS TO THE
SURFACE GIVES LOW/MID 70S BUT EXPECT MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN 850MB AND STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP US CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST WHERE A
DECENT LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GIVEN WEAK GRADIENT WINDS.
THIS WOULD BE AN ALMOST 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING FROM COOL MORNING
LOWS BUT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN DRY AIRMASS AND GOOD INSOLATION.
BUMPED INHERITED MAX TEMP FORECAST UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW
SPOTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLIGHT AIRMASS MODIFICATION
BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT ESE SURFACE WINDS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

SIG DOWNSTREAM HGT RISES XPCD THIS PD INADV OF DEEP LYRD TROUGH
PIVOTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. BROAD MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS BLDS CORE OF MID-UPR RIDGE AXIS ACRS THE SRN LAKES INTO
SUN BFR SHIFTING EWD IN ASSOCN/W EJECTION OF SIG NRN ROCKIES SW INTO
SRN MB. PRIOR TO THAT DOUBT PCPN CHCS HERE UNTIL LT PD IN CONCERT
W/WARM MID LVL TEMPS OVERTOP WK LL FLW AND DEEMED INADEQUATE BNDRY
LYR THETA-E WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE MID LVL CAPPING INVERSION
THROUGH FRI.

LTR PD POPS/WX GENERALLY HELD PER EWD PROGRESSION OF SHARP MID LVL
TROUGH THROUGH SRN CANADA AND SOME INHERENT BREAKDOWN IN MID LVL
RIDGE ACRS THE SRN LAKES XPCD. HWVR LACK OF HGT FALLS W/SRN EXTENT
PORTEND ISOLD CHCS AT BEST AND BEFITTING PRIOR GRIDDED STANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS TAF
PERIOD AS LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MAINTAINS DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BKN 5KFT STRATUS
DECK CURRENTLY AROUND KSBN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
EASTWARD BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW DIURNAL CU FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS
WITH A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION AT KSBN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE. DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVENT FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


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