Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 190008 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
608 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Updated for 00Z aviation discussion


00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the period.
Light and variable wind tonight will become southwesterly Friday
and remain less than 10kts. /22/


Tonight through Tomorrow: Quiet weather to continue through the
next 24 hours as the center of a surface high slowly edges
eastward across our forecast area. Mostly clear skies and light
winds tonight will allow for another night of good radiational
cooling across the area, however increasing cloud cover with an
approaching shortwave trough by early morning may limit cooling
for southern counties and parishes. Although parts of our forecast
area will dip down into the upper teens and low 20`s tonight, the
warmer temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow will limit hard
freeze concerns. The temperatures will still be cold, so
precautions should still be taken to keep people, pets, pipes, and
plants warm overnight. High temperatures will be close to 50
tomorrow afternoon with the return of southerly winds and warmer
air off the Gulf of Mexico. /NF/

Friday night through Wednesday: We will transition to a more milder
pattern through the period with rain chances coming for Sunday into
Monday with dry weather coming back Tuesday and Wednesday.

On Friday night into Saturday morning a weak shortwave will cross
the region with no associated rainfall. Shortwave ridging will come
behind this system and help set up some warm advection return flow
to the region. Meanwhile an upper trough with an associated closed
low will be approaching the plains on Sunday. Warm advection showers
will develop across the west by Sunday afternoon. The rains will
spread across the region on Sunday night as moisture transport
increases across the ArkLaMiss as the system sets up across the
Plains toward the Mississippi Valley. There will be enough elevated
instability for some isolated thunder for Sunday night into MOnday.
The system has plenty of shear but struggles with instability for
any strong storm potential. The potential for any thunderstorms will
be along the associated cold front, which will track across the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday. The rains will end from the
west on Monday afternoon. As the upper trough axis exits east on
Tuesday a zonal flow pattern will develop across the region. High
pressure will bring in dry weather for Tuesday. On Wednesday a short
wave will swing across the region. Models and their ensembles were
generally similar with the pattern.

As far as temperatures are concern we will have a general moderating
trend. On daily highs readings will push into the 60s by Sunday
then will settles into the 50s and 60s for the rest of the period.
For daily lows readings will be in the upper 20s and 30s for
Friday night then will rise to the 40s and 50s over the weekend
then will push back to the 30s for Monday through Wednesday./17/


Jackson       18  52  36  60 /   0   0   2   8
Meridian      16  52  32  59 /   0   0   1   4
Vicksburg     17  51  36  62 /   0   0   3   9
Hattiesburg   18  54  34  62 /   0   0   3   7
Natchez       20  51  38  63 /   0   0   5  10
Greenville    18  47  35  56 /   0   0   2  10
Greenwood     17  49  35  58 /   0   0   2   8





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