Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 260854
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT)...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY
START THIS MORNING...BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR
TODAY ALONG WITH A DRY FRONT WHICH WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS IN
TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SWINGING DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD...THIS PUTS THE SHORTWAVE ON A TRAJECTORY TO PASS NORTH OF
THE CWA ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MUCH LIKE THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. IT WILL ALSO BE
RATHER BREEZY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL MIXING UP TO NEAR 850 MB...SO A FEW
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO KEEP MOST AREAS
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY
MORNING FOR EAGER BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPERS. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF US FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE REGION
BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS TIME...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DIVERGE A BIT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEAK.  BOTH INDICATE A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.  THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENT OF THE TWO IN STALLING THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING IT OUT BY MID-WEEK.  THE ECMWF NOW STALLS THE
INITIAL FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY.  THEN IT
BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  BOTH
SOLUTIONS BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE
EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY AT
GLH/GWO/GTR...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  37  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      63  36  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     67  36  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   66  40  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       67  38  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    65  35  50  33 /   3   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     63  33  50  31 /   5   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/19



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