Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 112220
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT
ENTIRELY THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TODAY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES AS AN EFFICIENT DRY
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME BOOSTED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THIS
INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL COULD RESULT IN MORE HIGHS TOPPING 70
DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PINE BELT TOMORROW...BUT ELSEWHERE
HIGHS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL FALL OFF FROM WHAT HAS BEEN THE CASE
TODAY (ALTHOUGH IN MOST AREAS IT WILL BE FAR FROM FRIGID). BY
SATURDAY A REINFORCING COLD SHOT WILL GET FUNNELED DOWN INTO THE
REGION AND BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS TO ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY AND
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BUT THE GRADUALLY CHILLIER TREND WILL PUT ITS BRAKES ON SHARPLY ON
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING TOWARD THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST BUCKLES THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE MAKING IT THIS FAR
EAST. THIS BUCKLING WILL HELP KICK UP A SURFACE LOW TO OUR
WEST...WHICH SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TRACK NORTHEAST RIGHT THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE ADVANCING
BACK NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING TYPE
PRECIP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH
(ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH) LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND IN THOSE
AREAS TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE A WINTER WEATHER CONCERN. BUT IN
OUR REGION THE THREAT FOR WINTER WEATHER IS QUITE LOW (BECAUSE IT
WILL BE TOO WARM) AND MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY. THIS IS THE POINT AT WHICH OUR REGION SHOULD FEEL THE
COMBINED IMPACT OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY. VERY CHILLY TEMPS WELL ALOFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...DESPITE QUITE TAME MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR THE SURFACE. THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS PRETTY LOW...BUT THE PARAMETER SPACE
FORECASTS FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN
THE COMING DAYS BECAUSE SOME SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND OF MASS FIELDS
COULD YIELD A MARGINALLY HIGHER THREAT THERE. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL RESULT IN AN
EVENTUAL WIND SHIFT AT SITES.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AROUND
18 KNOTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY BETWEEN 3-8 KNOTS.  SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AT NAMELY KHBG. THIS COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITIES
DROPPING TO MVFR CATEGORIES AROUND DAY BREAK FRIDAY.  THE PATCHY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 14Z./19/17/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MONDAY
EVENING...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD OVER OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THEN
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  65  37  50 /   0   1   0   0
MERIDIAN      41  67  35  49 /   0   1   0   0
VICKSBURG     42  64  38  49 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   49  73  40  54 /   1   2   0   0
NATCHEZ       49  68  40  53 /   1   2   0   0
GREENVILLE    33  56  32  41 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     33  58  31  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/17/22


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