Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 292048

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
348 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017


This afternoon/tonight through Tuesday:

The complex weather pattern continues today as widespread clouds
from the MCS over the Gulf coast and stream of moisture continues to
keep temperatures down into the upper 70s to just lower 80s. With
the previously mentioned meso-high still over the area and drier PWs,
we are definitely on track for another dry afternoon, for the most
part. The cold front is analyzed up in the ArkLaMiss Delta, with
better moisture and isentropic lift continuing over the region. Many
mesoscale features of the MCVs, gravity waves and some differential
heating boundaries, will play into this complex mesoscale setup.
Some cumulus fields are developing along the cold front in the Delta
and differential heating boundaries along the edge of the cloud
fields. Left chances for scattered showers and storms in there this
afternoon due to this but this is definitely a lower confidence
forecast. In addition a very strong MCS over the Gulf is likely
robbing better moisture transport/convergence into our area, keeping
it even more uncertain for convection. Due to this and very little
destabilization or convection developing, dropped the marginal for
today altogether for the entire area. If any convection develops, it
will be likely be late enough to limit much if any way of
strong/severe potential. These clouds will continue to limit high
temperatures today and adjusted the hourly temperatures and high
temperature today to this current trend.

More moisture will advect back in tonight due to the previously
mentioned shortwave and disturbance over the Gulf. Guidance
indicates a MCV/mesolow will slowly move northeast tonight but then
the upper forcing will gradually pull away and closer towards our
area into tonight. This will help bring some rain and storm chances
back in later tonight. Maintained rain chances through tonight as
there is too much uncertainty to cut much if any chances. This and
widespread clouds will keep temperatures in the mid-upper 60s. As
the shortwave continues to lift northeast and the forcing pulls away
to the east, expect the best chances for convection Tuesday to
remain mainly along and southeast of the front, with the best
chances southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor. Hi-res guidance
depicts the more widespread nature of convection tomorrow afternoon
across central and southern-eastern zones. Due to the scattered to
widespread nature of convection on Tuesday, this could keep
temperatures down. They will be into the upper 70s to low 80s in
this corridor southeast of the Natchez Trace, while areas to the
northwest along the cold front lingering in the area will warm up
into the low-mid 80s. The widespread nature of convection will also
limit strong-severe potential. This will keep lapse rates lower and
wind fields will be weak overall. /DC/

Tuesday night through the coming weekend:

The weather pattern still looks quite wet through the extended
period with temperatures remaining at least a little below average
on most days.

Upper level energy gradually pulling away from the region in the
previously-outlined short term period will be replaced by more
incoming (and slow-moving) upper level trough energy Thursday.
This trough will probably wait until sometime early next week to
pass entirely through the region so daily rainfall chances will be
enhanced as at least modest warmth and moisture advection continues
north off the Gulf of Mexico. There may be enough forcing at
times to throw askew normal early summer diurnal trends in
precipitation but in general anticipate best shower and storm
chances to be in the afternoon through early evening (coinciding
with typical best time windows for available instability). Overall
severe weather chances late this week and through the weekend do
not look too great at this juncture as only non-impressive lapse
rates and wind shear combine on most days. Owing to this
assessment the HWO will be kept clear of convective threats at
this time but we will still keep a close eye on the situation over
the next several days (because it certainly does not take much
wind shear in June around this region to sometimes generate
localized pockets of severe weather).

Additionally, we will have to be watching out for any areas of
locally heavy rain through the week and it is possible as we go
forward we might need to start highlighting areas of greater flood
potential due to repeated downpours. However, at this point the
synoptic setup offered by model consensus suggests the potential
for torrential training downpours is not great and we also must
consider that going into the start of June the lush vegetation
will work to soak up a lot of potential run-off water very
quickly and efficiently. /BB/


18Z TAF discussion:
Most TAF sites this afternoon are VFR with the exception of GLH
being at MVFR due to some slightly lower ceilings. Expect more
VCTS/TSRA tied to the cold front, near GLH, GWO and GTR, with some
isolated to scattered storms elsewhere. These should weaken after
30/00-02Z. Winds will be mainly from the west-southwest this
afternoon around 6-8kts before light-calm winds overnight. There
may be some fog development and MVFR visibilities near GLH and GWO
near the cold front & some lower stratus/MVFR ceilings towards
MEI, NMM, PIB and HBG, all around 30/10-12Z, which will lift by
mid morning around 30/14-15Z. /DC/


Jackson       67  80  67  85 /  59  64  23  49
Meridian      66  80  65  85 /  58  64  26  42
Vicksburg     66  83  67  85 /  53  57  22  48
Hattiesburg   69  81  67  84 /  50  57  27  49
Natchez       66  81  67  84 /  58  65  27  56
Greenville    67  85  66  85 /  24  28  15  22
Greenwood     67  85  65  86 /  33  36  17  23





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