Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 012058
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION. AS PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED...THE RECENT VERY HOT AND DRY WEATHER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
AN UNUSUAL DEGREE OF VEGETATIVE BROWNING AND THIS IS DEPICTED WELL IN
LATEST USFS WFAS ANALYSES. RAINFALL IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS AROUND
10% OF NORMAL AND KBDI VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 600. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HOT/DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LIMITED FIRE
DANGER THREAT...BUT EXPECT DECREASING WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
HELP TO MITIGATE THE THREAT SOME.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
ONE INCH TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES COULD
POTENTIALLY COOL OFF A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE
GREATER POSSIBILITY FOR DECOUPLING. FULL SUN IN THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO STRONG MIXING AGAIN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID/UPPER
90S. /EC/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART ON MONDAY WITH PWATS BELOW 1.4 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SURFACE FLOW DOES BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF THE HUMID CONDITIONS.

UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST
FLOW RETURNS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOPEFULLY THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. /15/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NE WINDS FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SLACK OFF THROUGH THE
EVENING AND BE 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL AND RESULT
IN ANOTHER NICE DAY FOR FLYING ACROSS THE AREA. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  97  71  98 /   1   1   2   3
MERIDIAN      67  96  69  97 /   1   1   2   3
VICKSBURG     65  97  70  98 /   1   1   2   3
HATTIESBURG   69  98  74  97 /   2   4   5  10
NATCHEZ       67  96  72  96 /   1   2   2   7
GREENVILLE    68  97  71  98 /   1   1   2   3
GREENWOOD     67  96  71  97 /   1   1   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/15/28/



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