Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 231730 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Wrap around clouds continue over the region from the north early
this afternoon. MVFR to VFR ceilings was noted across the region
with breezy north winds at 10 to 18 knots,especially across the
open delta region. Skies were slowly clearing from the northwest.
Expect clouds to decrease from the west late this afternoon into
the overnight hours. The clouds will hang on in the east over
night except for the HBG area. Winds will decrease to around 5 to
8 knots for tonight. The clouds will exit the east early
Monday./17/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest satellite imagery showed the midlevel closed low moving
over the region with wrap around clouds. So expect the combination
of cool air advection and clouds to keep temps rather cool for
this afternoon. Latest guidance lowered temps a few degrees with
highs from the upper 50s east to the upper 60s west. The light
rains have exited the east so will keep dry pops for the rest of
the day. Some patchy drizzle may be possible this afternoon with
the system pushing through. Otherwise expect cool breezy north
winds. /17/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight: WV imagery this morning showing a weak shortwave
moving through central MS which seems to be responsible for the
lingering showers over eastern sections. While this shower activity
will push east of the area before sunrise, will not be surprised to
see some shower activity over northeastern sections this morning
as the mid level cold core low skirts that area on its way into
AL. Elsewhere across the region, cold air aloft in proximity to
the low will result in widespread cloud cover and cool
temperatures.

Ridging at the surface and aloft will help cloud cover dissipate
from the west after sunset. Coolest readings tonight look to occur
in the west where duration of clear skies and calmer winds will
allow for the most radiative heat loss. The warmest area will be in
the far east where cloud cover should hang on to around sunrise
Monday./26/

Monday through Saturday: The cooler drier conditions will be
short-lived as high pressure at the surface shifts over and east
of the region Monday into Tuesday. Flow aloft will also gradually
become more westerly through mid-week as a ridge axis also builds
east through the forecast area. This will result in a warming
trend, that by Tuesday, will have highs back in the 80s each
afternoon through Saturday. Highs on Monday however, will top out
in the mid and upper 70s. Lows will also warm through the period.

Rain chances will also creep back into the forecast beginning late
Wednesday night as a cold front is currently expected to shift east
into the forecast area.  Models show that as the front tries to push
through, it`ll essentially washout over the forecast area, thus not
really bringing any appreciable airmass change in it`s wake.  Still,
some afternoon and early evening convection can`t be ruled out
Thursday into Friday.  Rain chances, albeit small, look to continue
to linger into Saturday simply as a result of the forecast area
being in a warm moist airmass.  These rain chances will primarily be
during the afternoon hours, with most of the forecast area remaining
dry during this time. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  48  77  49 /   8   0   0   0
Meridian      61  49  77  49 /  13   0   0   0
Vicksburg     65  47  77  50 /   7   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   64  48  78  50 /  13   0   0   0
Natchez       63  47  76  51 /   7   0   0   0
Greenville    66  48  75  52 /  11   0   0   0
Greenwood     62  47  75  51 /  12   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

17



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