Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 260313 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
913 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS ENDED
AND IS NO LONGER FUELING THE SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MS. ADJUSTED SKY
COVER JUST A TAD. WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY AT THIS HOUR BUT
SHOULD DECREASE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TONIGHT. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD WILL CONTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR MOST SITES BETWEEN 06-10Z WITH THESE RESTRICTED
CEILINGS THEN DISSIPATING BETWEEN 12-16Z. SFC WINDS ARE STILL A TAD
BREEZY...BUT LOOK FOR THOSE TO STEADILY DISSIPATE SOME THROUGH THE
NIGHT. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AREAL RADARS WERE PICKING UP SOME
SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTH OF CWA ACROSS WHICH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WAS NOTED ACROSS
THE REGION OF AROUND 20 TO 35 MPH...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIRES CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING.
THE SHOWERS AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY 06Z THIS
EVENING. FOR MONDAY A STRONGER DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
EAST TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. NIGHTLY LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER WITH READINGS FROM 35 TO 40. ON TUESDAY THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
OF RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BE IN
PLACE RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE HIGHER HEIGHTS AND
FULL INSOLATION WILL WARM TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE 60S SOUTHWEST./17/

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WILL RESULT IN FLAT UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE ARKLAMISS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING
TREND GOING INTO THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO MAINLY THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WHICH WILL BE
6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND EURO
TRIES TO BRING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EURO CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. WITH LACK OF GOOD
ASCENT OPTED TO KEEP DRY POPS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
CANADIAN MODEL WAS DRY WITH IT. TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP
DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL COME BACK DOWN INTO
MAINLY THE 50S. FLAT UPPER RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF BAJA.
THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR
CHANCES OF RAIN. THE GFS CONTINUED TO BE FASTER THAN THE EURO
IN BRINGING LIGHT RAIN BACK INTO THE REGION. WITH THE SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN PROFILES CONTINUE TO FAVOR JUST A COLD RAIN FOR NOW.
NEITHER MODEL BRING THE CLOSED LOW EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
/17/

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. GUSTY WINDS ARE BEING
REPORTED WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS FROM 20-25KTS AT MOST SITES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BREEZY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       38  54  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      38  53  36  62 /   4   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     38  55  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   40  56  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       38  56  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    37  54  37  59 /   4   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     38  53  36  59 /   6   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

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