Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 231040 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
540 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016


Updated for aviation discussion for 12z TAFS. /EC/



There is a small chance for patchy fog to reduce visibility at TAF
sites.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through Monday. /EC/



Today through tonight,

Overall, expect continued dry weather with a warming trend for the
ArkLaMiss early this week as forecast models are in agreement on
rebuilding the upper level ridge across the southern tier of the
CONUS. Given the increasing drought and very low relative humidity
today (min RH ~ 20%), fire weather danger will bump back up into the
"elevated" category over portions of east central and south central
MS, and this is being reflected in the latest HWO/graphics.
Relatively light winds are keeping this from becoming a more
significant fire weather event. Otherwise, there is very little to
discuss in terms of impactful weather this period. Temperatures will
be running around 4 to 8 deg F above normal for highs with lows
tonight fairly close to typical values due to strong nocturnal
cooling of the dry air. /EC/

Monday through Saturday night,

Overall a dry stretch will continue through the week, with the
exception of a weak front moving through around mid-week. Surface low
and upper trough over eastern Canada will slowly build to the east on
Monday while weak mid-level ridging will slowly build in from the
west. In addition a 1030mb surface high will be building into the
northern Plains, Great Lakes and into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
This will move in the wake of a very weak front moving to our north.
The dry airmass will promote efficient mixing with dewpoints falling
into the low 40s to upper 30s, with the lowest mainly over central
and eastern Mississippi. As low level temperatures warm, highs could
warm into the low 80s. Due to this, humidity values could fall into
critical thresholds. Added an elevated threat in the HWO/graphics
through Monday in east-southeast Mississippi due to humidity values
falling into critical thresholds in the low 20 percent range. With
the airmass still pretty dry, only near a half an inch or so PW`s,
efficient radiational cooling looks to continue Monday night as winds
will be light overall with below normal lows dipping into the upper
40s, mainly in the east.

As the mid-level ridge and surface high move east through early to
mid week, highs will shape up to warm into the low to mid 80s, some
8-10 degrees above normal. Return flow will be slow to move back in
but lows will gradually warm up into the mid to upper 50s through
the week. Moisture will continue to be low around Tuesday with
humidity levels slowly moving back up above critical values. Return
flow will gradually return mid-late week as an upper trough and
quick moving surface low drag a cold front towards our area.
Moisture will slowly creep back up near an inch PW`s but overall
with such low moisture and weak moisture return, very little rain is
expected, with some in north Mississippi and some possibly in the
northern Gulf to south Mississippi. Best chances of rain should
remain out of our area, which will only exacerbate our drought
issues. Kept only some slight chance POPs in the southeast but that
may struggle as moisture is low and most should be squeezing out
before it makes it here. Dry weather and ridging will move back
into the area into the weekend. /DC/


Jackson       81  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      82  48  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     80  47  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   79  48  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       77  51  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    77  52  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     78  49  80  50 /   0   0   0   0




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