Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 270904
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KJAN RAOB
WAS 0.90) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BRING SOME
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION - SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THE EXPLICIT
MENTION OF THUNDER.

A SIMILAR SET-UP IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL SURGE A BIT FARTHER INLAND RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR GETTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SLIGHTLY
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP
INTO TO THE LOW-MID 90S...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS... ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. /EC/

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/EURO BOTH AGREE ON OUR REGION BEING ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP DRAW NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE
MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN). ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A
MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH
HELPS IN THE GENERATION OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY
FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION
VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS FOR TEMPS
DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...LOOK FOR FRI TO BE THE WARMEST WITH
HIGHS 90-94 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN
CHECK BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE
COMMON RANGE FOR SAT-SUN. AS FOR LOWS...LOOK FOR EACH DAY TO RUN ON
ABNORMALLY THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS 72-75.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN SAT-SUN. ONCE WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION (SE CONUS). THIS WILL
HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY
WHILE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID
90S. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. HBG/PIB WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR
GETTING AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  69  93  71 /   4   6  10  14
MERIDIAN      94  64  94  68 /   4   8   8  13
VICKSBURG     94  66  94  69 /   3   6  18  16
HATTIESBURG   94  70  93  71 /  17  10  19  13
NATCHEZ       91  69  90  71 /  14  10  31  15
GREENVILLE    93  68  95  71 /   2   4   9  12
GREENWOOD     93  67  94  69 /   2   4   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

/EC/CME/





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