Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 060405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN JKL AND SJS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM
A SHOWER OR STORM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE IFR OR WORSE FOG LIKELY SETS IN. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 15Z MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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