Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 101530 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1030 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

14z sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over eastern
Kentucky. This led to a chilly start to the day with most
locations in the teens at sunup. There was even some patches of
locally dense fog around the Somerset area. The fog is now
starting to break up while a band of slow to clear out lower
clouds are still plaguing northeast parts of the area. Satellite
trends and the latest near term model data suggest that these
will dissipate by noon for most of the places currently stuck
under the clouds. A return of sunshine should help temperatures to
recover more completely later this afternoon. Current readings in
the low to mid 20s most places will climb into the low and mid 30s
by mid to late afternoon. Meanwhile, dewpoints will stay fairly
steady in the upper teens and lower 20s along with light and
variable winds. Have updated the forecast mainly to fine tune sky
cover through the afternoon and also to adjust the T and Td ones
per the latest obs and trends. These updates have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 649 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

Pesky stratus continues to linger about, but should see this lift
and mix out by mid morning. Nonetheless, the coldest morning of
the season thus far has materialized with temperatures ranging
from the low-mid 20s across northeast Kentucky underneath this
stratus, to very near single digits in valleys across southeast
Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

West/northwest flow will be in place aloft today following Friday`s
upper trough. Remnant energy will remain across southern Canada into
the Ohio Valley today, but precipitation will be limited to across
the northern Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes in closer proximity
to shortwave energy traversing Ontario and the Great Lakes along
with an attendant surface low. Surface ridging will keep dry low
levels in play locally, thus making for a dry Saturday across all
of eastern Kentucky. Once any lingering low stratocumulus mixes
out and/or lifts north this morning, cloud cover will be confined
to above roughly 7k feet as some altocumulus and cirrus stream in.
Although heights will slowly rise aloft as warmer air trickles in,
high pressure overhead will keep cold air entrenched, spelling a
chilly day once again with high temperatures only making it into
the low-mid 30s.

High pressure will shift east tonight, veering winds
southeasterly as return flow ushers in yet warmer air aloft.
However, given low wind speeds overnight, still expecting
temperatures to fall through this evening and tonight following
atmospheric decoupling. Will have to monitor mid-high clouds
regarding exactly how far temperatures will be able to fall by
daybreak Sunday, but currently expecting low-mid 20s for the most
part. Far eastern Kentucky may see a better ridge/valley split
nearer the departing ridge, but cloud cover may again put somewhat
of a damper on this. Nonetheless, a few sheltered valleys should
be able to reach the upper teens in the Big Sandy region.

Backing southwesterly flow aloft on Sunday, downstream of an upper
trough riding through the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes,
will bring much warmer air in aloft. Temperatures should make a run
at climatology as highs rebound into the mid-upper 40s. Some gusty
south winds will be likely in the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland
regions as the pressure gradient tightens due to a surface low
moving through the upper Midwest toward the Great Lakes. Not
expecting much in the way if any rainfall prior to Sunday evening as
better height falls and low level moisture recovery look to occur
then.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

The extended period looks to start off wet with near normal
temperatures Sunday night and Monday. A cold front is forecast to
move across the region from the west to begin the period. This
boundary will bring widespread rain showers with it as it moves
off to the east. The best chance for rain will occur from late
Sunday night through early Monday afternoon. The rain is then
expected to taper from west to east Monday evening, with the last
shower exiting eastern Kentucky late Monday evening. We can expect
a break from the wet weather Tuesday, Tuesday night and most of
Wednesday, as a ridge of high pressure temporarily settles over
the region. The air mass associated with this ridge will bring
near normal temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and dry conditions
to eastern Kentucky. The ridge will begin to break down and move
off to our east late in the day on Wednesday and Wednesday night,
as a trough of low pressure ejects from the Plains and heads our
way. This trough will be a bit disorganized, however, and will be
a somewhat starved for moisture, so only isolated to scattered
showers and are expected as this system moves across the region
Wednesday afternoon and night. A mix of rain and snow is possible
late Wednesday night, as colder air filters into the region. The
precipitation may even transition to all snow by dawn on Thursday.
The precipitation should be out of the area by early Thursday
morning.

A second ridge of high pressure will settle over the region
Thursday through Friday morning. This system is forecast to bring
another very cold air mass to the region to end out the week. In
fact, we may see highs only in the 20s and 30s on Thursday and
Friday. We will see another chance for precipitation Friday and
Friday night, as an area of low pressure approaches from the
south. The precipitation should start out as rain initially, but a
quick transition to a rain/snow mix and then all snow is possible
during the day on Friday, as surge of cold air associated with a
northern stream trough pushes into our area. Some snowfall
accumulations are possible Friday and Friday night, but confidence
in the forecast that far out is very low at this time, so no
specific snow amounts will be mentioned for now.

Overall temperatures will start out near normal, with highs
ranging from the upper 40s to the lower 50s Monday and Tuesday,
with Monday being the warmer of the two days. A cool down should
begin on Wednesday, with highs expected to top out at below normal
values between the mid 30s and mid 40s. The end of the week will
see a dramatic chill occur, with highs ranging from the mid 20s to
the upper 30s on Thursday and Friday. Nightly lows will also vary
greatly, with min values in the upper 30s and lower 40s possible
Sunday night and in the 30s Monday night and Tuesday night. After
that, we can expected progressively colder temperatures, with lows
bottoming out in the teens and 20s from Wednesday night through
Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

Only aviation note of concern will be a stratus deck slowly
tracking eastward. This and subsequent MVFR ceilings should
erode by mid morning, leading to the return of VFR conditions
for the remainder of the period. Winds will remain light and
variable with high pressure parked overhead, before veering
south/southeasterly near 5 mph later tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GUSEMAN


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