Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
FXUS63 KJKL 280240
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1040 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Issued at 1040 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016
The forecast continues to be on track this evening. A few minor
adjustments were made to the cloud cover for the rest of the
night, with a slight decrease in overall coverage through out the
night. However, these adjustments changed the overall forecast
very little. The rest of the forecast was in good shape. Also
ingested the latest obs data into the hourly forecast grids to
establish new trends. An updated zone forecast text product has
already been issued.
UPDATE Issued at 727 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016
The forecast is on track for the most part so far this evening. A
cold front has been tracking across eastern Kentucky for the past
few hours, and has now into the higher terrain east of the weather
office. Winds have shifted to the northwest behind the boundary
and are still quite brisk at up to 10kts at time, with higher
gusts. A large of area of cloud cover is expected to continue to
stream across the area behind the front. These clouds will likely
persist across the area through early Friday morning, before
finally breaking up and moving out of the area by early tomorrow
afternoon. The latest obs data were ingested into the hourly
forecast grids to establish new trends, but no other changes to
the forecast were deemed necessary.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 356 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016
An area of surface low pressure is currently moving across the
eastern Great Lakes. A cold front stems southwestward, aligned
from KSYM to KBWG across Kentucky. High pressure is moving into
the Ohio Valley, with the center across Illinois at this time.
Aloft, a short wave trough is moving towards the Eastern Seaboard,
with ridging building in across the Plains.
Some isolated showers continue to pop up along the surface boundary,
and will continue to be seen across eastern Kentucky through the
rest of this afternoon, before diminishing into early this
evening. High pressure will build in tonight; however, given the
plentiful cloud cover upstream, and winds slowly veering to the
north northeast, clearing looks to be delayed. Lows will be in the
low to mid 40s.
Once any lingering stratus/stratocu burn off by the mid-morning
hours on Friday, skies will clear out as upper level heights build
in across the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. Highs on
Friday will range from the mid to upper 60s in the north, to the
mid 70s in the south.
High pressure will be positioned to our southeast on Friday night,
allowing for return flow and a ridge/valley temperature split.
Lows will range from the mid to upper 40s in the valleys, to the
mid 50s on the ridges under clear skies.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 408 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016
...Record warmth possible this weekend and into next week...
500mb ridging will be in place across the southern conus (mainly the
Gulf states) through the weekend, increasing in strength across the
southeast through next week. Zonal flow/slight ridging will be
present across Kentucky through the day Saturday, with a small wave
moving through the region and points northward during the day
Sunday. AS the stronger ridging takes hold across the southeast,
heights are also expected to push their way into the Ohio River
valley through next week as well.
At the surface, high pressure will be in place across KY and points
to the southeast through the day Saturday, promoting good SW to NE
flow across the region. This will combine with abundant sunshine to
produce temperatures well above seasonable normals for this time of
year. In fact, some places may see record high temperatures this
day. Continued to go 2 to 3 degrees above the blend of models, given
its dependence on climatological values and the very
unclimatological weather pattern. For Sunday, the small wave that
will move through the area aloft will translate to a surface low
pressure system across the Upper Great Lakes and a frontal boundary
which is expected to stall out just north of the Ohio River. It will
be fairly weak, as it elongates and shears out, so don`t expect
enough energy to make it into the CWA which would promote
precipitation. However, it will increase the southerly flow across
much of the southeast conus, once again prompting well above normal
The front will eventually shift southward through KY Sunday
evening/night, but will be so weak at this point we should expect
little impacts. Overall winds will remain southerly as the frontal
zone strengthens slightly to our south, becoming a warm front. As
the upper level ridging continues to intensify across the region,
this deep pull of southerly air is expected to continue through the
rest of the period. Combined with ample sunshine, afternoon highs
are expected to max out well above seasonable normals for the
duration of the long term forecast. As a result, continued to
increase temperatures a couple degrees above the model blend since
this is such an unclimatological set up. Many locations could see 80
degrees both Monday and Tuesday. In turn, this heat wave could
result in more record high temperatures for several days next week.
As was also noted in the previous discussion, with the start of the
month of November looming, this heat wave may in fact meet or beat
some of the all time record high temperatures for the month.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016
MVFR ceilings will gradually move in across the entire area
through this evening as a cold front moves through the region.
Winds have shifted to the west and northwest behind the departing
cold front at JKL, SYM, and SJS, and should shift soon at LOZ and
SME. These winds will diminish quickly this evening and should be
light and variable for most of the night. High pressure will build
into the Ohio Valley tonight, with cloud cover gradually thinning
from west to east between 06 and 12z. Winds will likely be light
enough to allow for fog formation if ample clearing can take
place; however, could also see more of a lower IFR stratus deck
forming towards dawn as a possibility. For now, have sided more
with stratus forming, given the slower clearing trends upstream.
Low clouds/fog will burn off by the mid-morning hours on Friday,
with VFR conditions returning thereafter.