Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271055

National Weather Service Jackson KY
655 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Issued at 635 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Patchy dense fog remains in place across the southern and eastern
portions of the region this morning with some locations down to a
quarter of a mile visibility. This fog should dissipate around 13Z
this morning, leading to a pleasant fall day. In terms of the
grids, did a quick refresh to the hourly temps and sky cover and
sent updates to NDFD and web servers.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

The large upper level low currently over the western Great
Lakes region will gradually shift southward towards Kentucky
throughout the short term. Energy from this low is expected to
pivot into our area Wednesday afternoon, providing enough lift
for at least a chance for showers. Decided not to include mention
of thunder at this time due to model soundings showing very
limited instability.

In terms of sensible weather, today will finally feel like
autumn with a much drier airmass in place and seasonal
temperatures in the lower 70s. Patchy dense fog has developed
early this morning but should dissipate/lift around 13Z. Once the
fog dissipates, skies should remain mostly clear throughout the
day as the upper low stays far enough to our north. Tonight,
temperatures will fall into the mid and upper 40s before
rebounding into the low and mid 70s by tomorrow afternoon. As the
upper low approaches tomorrow afternoon, cloud cover and shower
chances will increase, with shower chances peaking in the
afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

The models remain in decent agreement with the amplified and
blocky long wave pattern to dominate across the CONUS through the
majority of the period. An upper level low will drop south out of
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions through Friday, before
gradually shifting back to the north and diminishing through early
next week.

This will result in below normal temperatures and periods of
unsettled weather across eastern Kentucky through the first part
of the weekend. Dry weather and a gradual warm up will then ensue
as the low pulls away, and 500 mb heights recover.

The blended guidance came in very reasonable with the rain
chances through the period, so stuck close to the given values.
Sky cover did look on the high side, so dialed this back
somewhat. Also allowed for slightly warmer lows at night,
particularly when the system is closest to our area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)

Dense fog has become more prevalent than initially forecast,
bringing visibilities down to minimums across most of the TAF
sites early this morning. This fog should dissipate/lift by 13-14Z
this morning, then VFR conditions will prevail throughout the day.
Fog development is again possible during the overnight period
tonight. Winds will be light and variable around 5 knots or less
through the period.




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