Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 281119 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
619 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Satellite shows a fairly robust disturbance dropping southeast
through MT this morning. The models bring the disturbance through
Wrn Neb this afternoon and evening. The forecast leans on the HRRR
and NAM models which are the most aggressive with showers and
thunderstorms. K indices will be in the lower 30s and this should
support thunderstorms.

The temperature forecast is a blend of the HRRR and RAP models plus
bias correction for highs in the 70s. H700mb temperatures warm into
the low single digits celsius. Lows tonight fall in the 40s using
the guidance blend plus bias correction. High pressure across
Alberta and Saskatchewan will ridge south in the wake of the
disturbance this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Monday through Wednesday...An upper level low will continue to move
slowly southeast out of Canada and move across the Great Lakes
region. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures across the area
as a cold front passes through on Monday. Highs will only be in the
upper 60s across our northern CWA and in our lower 70s across
southwest Nebraska. The upper level low will then translate
northeastward and move across the Hudson Bay region.

Wednesday and beyond...northwest flow will prevail starting
Wednesday as a ridge begins to build in from the west. Precipitation
chances increasing on Thursday and Saturday in association with a
couple upper level systems. Temperatures will warm into the upper
70s to low 80s Friday and Saturday under the broad ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

An upper level disturbance dropping through MT/Nern WY/Wrn SD this
morning is expected to produce scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms this aftn/evening...generally affecting areas west
of highway 83. Local MVFR would be expected in the showers and
thunderstorms.

Note the HRRR suggests wind gusts to 50 mph may develop from this
activity during the peak heating period this afternoon. Storm
activity should diminish this evening and end by 05z this evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...CDC


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