Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 301113
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
613 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

At 08z...Surface high pressure extended from Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska into eastern Kansas. Temperatures across western
Nebraska range from 60 at Chadron, with lower 50s in the remainder
of the Panhandle and western Sandhills, to only 37 at Broken Bow and
40 at Ord in central Nebraska. An increase in high cloudiness across
the Panhandle early this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Today...Surface low pressure will deepen along the lee of the
rockies today. A south to southeast wind will range from 10 to 15 mph
most areas, to as high as 10 to 20 mph across Cherry county. Highs
today will will be similar to yesterday, and range from near 70 in
the east, but a few degrees cooler from 72-75 degrees west of
highway 83. Forecast highs are a few degrees warmer than the raw met
and mav guidance values today. After several sunny days, a partly
cloudy skies across the west this morning will become partly to
mostly cloudy west of highway 83 this afternoon, while ranging from
partly to mostly sunny in the east.

Synoptically, an upper trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest
today, as a closed low remains nearly stationary across the Ohio
Valley. Gulf moisture has been effectively pushed south into the
Gulf of Mexico.

Tonight...Mid level moisture mainly in the 650-400mb layer will thin
out from west to east overnight. the the balance of the night
however, a partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist. This will
keep low temperature up somewhat from the past few nights, to range
in the mid to upper 40s.

Synoptically, an upper trough in the Pacific Northwest will dig
southward into California, as a closed low continues to remain
nearly stationary across the Ohio Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Upper level ridging will dominate the weather across the central
plains this weekend into Monday. Surface pressure will gradually
lower along the lee of the Rockies through the weekend, with south
winds developing and increasing to breezy levels by Monday. Warmer
air will be pulled north into the region as the south winds
increase, with highs in the mid to upper 70s Saturday and nearing
80 degrees for Sunday and Monday.

A potent upper level low pressure system will track from the west
coast toward the central and northern plains Tuesday into
Wednesday. Models are similar with the digging of the system along
the Pacific coast, but continue to diverge with the track as the
system moves inland toward the area. Confidence is fairly low at
this point regarding the track, as the operational GFS and ECMWF
have essentially switched their thinking, with the GFS now
showing a more southern track and the ECMWF now the farther north
solution. The GEFS mean is farther south like the GFS. The ECMWF
seems to be wobbling, and will weigh the forecast toward the
farther south GFS which has support from the GEFS (ensembles).
This means that a round of strong thunderstorms is still possible
Tuesday afternoon along and east of Highway 83 near a dryline,
followed by cooler and mainly dry conditions Wednesday into
Thursday. The exception would be across northern Nebraska
Wednesday, where showers could wrap south on the backside of the
upper low as it ejects northeast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

VFR conditions will continue at the KLBF and KVTN terminals the
next 24 hours. There will be an increase in mid and high
cloudiness today into tonight. Lowest ceilings forecast are
bkn150 at KLBF after 00z/1st.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Roberg



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