Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 052316

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
716 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

The rest of the day looks fairly dry with only a small chance of a
stray shower or sprinkle this evening from roughly south central IN
to Louisville to Lexington and points northward.  This is courtesy
of a weak wave riding SSE around the upper low over the Carolinas.

Tonight the upper low will continue to drift further up the east
coast pulling away the low clouds over the region.  Expect clearing
skies tonight with low temps in the mid 40s.

Friday looks to be a dry day with mostly sunny skies and weak sfc
high pressure moving into the area.  High temps will be quite
pleasant in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

Most of Friday night looks to be dry as well, however, models still
indicate forcing along a weak inverted trough may be sufficient to
produce some light showery activity very late Fri night into Sat
morning.  Low temps on Fri night should range from the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016


After some very light showery activity Sat morning, the majority of
Sat afternoon and early evening will remain dry.  A cold front still
looks to drop down Sat night bringing showers/storms to the region.
However, the timing looks slower in the latest model runs.  It looks
like the Louisville Metro would stay dry until after 8pm. Timing
with this front is a bit uncertain and will need to keep an eye on
trends over the next few days, but for now the trend is slower and
later with Sat night showers/storms.

As far as storm strength along the front Sat night, they still look
like they could be strong to perhaps marginally severe. The later
timing would lend to lesser severe chances, but again enough
uncertainty exists to continue to advertise the possibility of
strong storms. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-45 kts, decent low level
lapse rates, and some elevated CAPE would probably pose a gusty wind
threat and maybe some small hail.  Again the best timing on that
would be late evening after 8pm for the Louisville Metro.

High temps on Sat will warm nicely into the upper 70s/lower 80s. Sat
evening temps should fall into the upper 70s, and low temps Sat
night should remain mild in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday - Thursday...

The front will linger over the region Sun/Mon providing 20-30%
chance for continued showers/storms for the beginning of next week.
A more potent upper trough will arrive for Tues bringing a more
unstable airmass and better wind fields for stronger convection.
Will need to watch Tues for possible svr.  The stormy pattern will
continue through mid week with several disturbances progged to cross
the Midwest.  Temps will remain slightly above seasonal norms.


.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 715 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Mostly VFR conditions across the region this hour under a steady
northwesterly wind. Have some light rain showers over IN and western
OH, wrapping around an upper low over the Appalachians. These should
dissipate with loss of daytime heating, and anyway are too light to
cause any kind of restrictions at the terminals. Rest of the period
should be VFR. Time-height sections from the RAP model would
indicate some low-level moisture affecting the LEX terminal around
daybreak. Not quite ready to add this to the TAFs, but something to
watch over the next few hours.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
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