Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 102249

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
549 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 345 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

High pressure centered over Kentucky today will move east to the
Atlantic coastline by midday Sunday.  Southerly winds in the wake of
the high will usher in relatively warmer temperatures and higher
moisture for the second half of the weekend.  Rain chances will
return to the area by afternoon as a fast moving upper level short
wave interacts with the moisture for a cold Kentucky (and southern
Indiana) rain (cue the Elvis music). While warmer than today,
temperatures will only top out in the 40s, with the possible
exception of a 50 degree reading around Lake Cumberland.

The cold rain will persist through Sunday night, but end toward
morning north of the Ohio River. Look for about a half inch of
rainfall to help further ease the improving drought conditions.

Southerly winds could gust over 20 mph at times tomorrow afternoon
thanks to the tight pressure gradient on the back side of the
high, adding to the blustery feel of the day.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s, but thanks to the
south winds, Sunday night`s lows will remain above freezing, ranging
from the mid 30s in southern Indiana to the mid 40s along the
Tennessee border.

.Long Term (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 345 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

Rain chances will drop off from northwest to southeast Monday
morning, and with the possible exception of the I-75 corridor and
Lake Cumberland Region, should be over with by noon.  Partially
clearing skies will follow, with mainly dry weather to follow until
Friday.  That being said, a deep closed low sets up over Hudson
Bay by midweek, and there is the outside chance that a clipper could
drop some flurries or light snow showers into the Bluegrass
Wednesday afternoon.  As is always the case with these fast moving
systems, a slight variation in the path or timing could leave us
high and dry, or result in a quick inch of snow. Given the current
guidance trends, however, it looks more like the former than the
latter - at least for now.

The better chance for our next shot of precipitation comes in Friday
afternoon and night.  This could start out as a messy mix of rain to
the south and snow to the north before switching over to all rain as
southerly winds push warmer air into the area after a sub-freezing
start to the day. Being day 7 of the current forecast however, this
is very susceptible to change, but does bear watching.

Temperature-wise through the week, readings will be at or below
normal through the period. Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest
days of the week, with most highs in the 40s.  We then turn markedly
colder for Wednesday and Thursday as northwest flow around the
aforementioned Hudson Bay Low punches colder air into the region.
Highs on Wednesday may still reach the 40s along the Tennessee line,
but will fail to reach 30 in southern Indiana.  By Thursday, high
temperatures are expected to remain below freezing across the entire
forecast area as cold high pressure moves over in the wake of the
clipper.  By Friday though, temperatures rebound as southerly winds
return on the back side of the high and bring precipitation chances
back in (not unlike the weather in the short term).

Low temperatures will follow a trend similar to the daytime highs,
dropping from Tuesday morning lows ranging from the upper 20s to
upper 40s north-to-south, into the teens everywhere by Thursday
morning, before coming back up a few degrees for Friday morning.


.Aviation (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 549 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

We`ll have a quiet night tonight with just some mid and high clouds
passing overhead.

A developing low pressure system will track across the Midwest and
lower Great Lakes Sunday, bringing in a tighter pressure gradient
locally. Expect winds to become southeasterly then southerly by
Sunday morning, increasing to 10-14 kts with some gusts around 20
kts by Sunday afternoon.

Showers will creep in toward the tail end of the forecast period at
BWG/LEX. At SDF we`ll have showers and high-end MVFR ceilings for
the planning period as moisture deepens and the aforementioned storm
system approaches.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........JBS
Long Term.........JBS
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