Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 091922

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
322 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015

A cold front was located over south central KY as of 300pm and will
continue to move SE into TN this evening.  A cluster of strong
storms will continue over the next hour in the Cumberland Lake
region just ahead of this front.  These strong storms may contain
strong winds and pea size hail.  They should clear the area within
the next few hours leaving showers and maybe an isld embedded t-
storm in their wake.

Showers and low clouds will linger over the area for much of the
evening hours.  Some of the latest models do indicate the upper
trough associated with this system will sharpen causing showery
activity to linger over south central KY through the early morning
hours Sat.  Low clouds will start to clear over southern Indiana
near sunrise Sat morning.  Low temps will hold in the upper 40s to
lower 50s overnight due to the clouds and lingering showers.

For Saturday, thick cloud cover will gradually clear from N to S
over the region during the morning hours with most places only
partly cloudy by Sat afternoon.  The post-frontal airmass will
result in high temps ranging through the 60s to around 70.

For Saturday night, skies will become clear with sfc high pressure
and upper level ridging aloft.  This will allow for optimal cooling
conditions dropping lows into the 40s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015

The long term will begin with the region under the influence of a
ridge aloft and high pressure at the surface. Highs Sunday will top
out in the lower to mid 70s. Lows Monday morning will be quite a bit
warmer than Sunday morning thanks to continued southerly winds. They
will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

For Monday a shortwave trough and cold front will swing through the
lower Ohio Valley. The front should begin to move into southern IN
during the afternoon and push through the rest of the region through
the evening. Scattered showers will accompany this frontal passage
Monday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will rise into the mid to
upper 70s ahead of the front. Behind it cooler air will filter in
with highs topping out in the 60s Tuesday.

Northwesterly flow aloft will set up and remain in place through the
remainder of the forecast period. A couple of weak waves will move
through this flow, but for now they look to mostly stay to the north
of the forecast area. Thus will go with a dry forecast for Tuesday
through Friday. Temperatures will warm back into the 70s Wednesday
and Thursday with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A dry front
then moves through on Thursday night with highs in the 60s once
again Friday.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015

Convection will continue over the TAF sites through this evening
courtesy of a cold front moving through the region.

SDF...looks to be done with t-storm chances as the front is very
close shifting winds to the WNW.  Expect showery activity to
continue through this evening with VFR conditions declining to MVFR
from roughly 21Z-3Z.  Cigs should lift as dry air moves in at the
sfc allowing conditions to return to VFR by 3Z.

BWG/LEX...Should still see t-storm chances through the afternoon and
early evening hrs ahead of the front.  By 21-22Z, the front should
be through these TAF sites resulting in only showery activity
through the evening hours.  BWG looks to remain a bit close to the
upper level trough associated with this system which may cause them
to hold on to MVFR cigs and showery conditions through the overnight
hrs.  LEX should hover near MVFR/VFR threshold overnight and have
kept the TAF optimistic for now.  Both sites should go VFR by 13-16Z

Winds will veer at all TAF sites from WNW this afternoon to N
tonight to NE for tomorrow.  Wind speeds of 5-9 kts will be common
with higher gusts in t-storms.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
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