Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 052327
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
627 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

214 PM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY WEAK
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SOME MID CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR A
LIGHT SHOWER AND PERHAPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH MUCH WARMER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...HIGHS AROUND 80 MAYBE LOWER
80S STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE IL COUNTIES...70S IN NORTHWEST
INDIANA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND
THIS MAY PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...EVEN ALONG THE IL
SHORE SO NOW HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS ALL THE WAY TO
THE SHORELINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE APPEARS TO DIMINISH
SOME DURING THE MORNING BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ACTIVITY MAY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND BY THIS TIME LIKELY BE OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MAINTAINED THUNDER MENTION BUT BEST
THUNDER CHANCES MAY ALSO END UP BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY REMAIN DIFFICULT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY
ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND WITH LESS PRECIP EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS MAY WARM FASTER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT
THEN TEMPS COULD FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AT LEAST
NEAR THE LAKE. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INLAND BUT BY EVENING...COOLER AIR
FLOWING IN OFF THE LAKE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

214 PM...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH/CENTRAL IL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS EVEN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE DRY BUT
WITH THIS FRONT NEARBY...MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THIS MAY SLOW THE OVERALL
NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM FRONT ALLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY
OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES AS
WELL AS THE LOW WEAKENING AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH
FROM ONTARIO MIDWEEK. SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER STILL
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO COOL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
SHOULD PICK UP TO 6-10KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING ENOUGH OF AN OFFSHORE WIND TO PREVENT A LAKE
BREEZE FROM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS ADMITTEDLY ONLY MODERATE.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
253 PM CDT

NE WINDS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED WAVES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH EVEN THE WILMETTE BUOY IS NOW DOWN
TO 4-4.5 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE LAKE
TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT SOUTH ON FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO COLLAPSE
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE COMING DAYS...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
IN MANITOBA EXPANDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS HIGH A
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO NORTHERLY POSSIBLY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT. THE HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE LAKE
SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL
     7 PM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

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