Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 210307
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1007 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
819 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

HAVE MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POPS AND TIMING OVERNIGHT...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND HIGH
RES MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. OVERALL...HAVE
TRIMMED BACK POPS TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY MORNING WITH EXPECTED MCS REMNANTS
ARRIVING FROM MINNESOTA.

A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.
NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED WITHIN THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES NOTED TOPPING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS WHICH WAS ROUGHLY FROM ST LOUIS NORTHWEST INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY INSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THIS ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH COMPARISON TO
OBSERVED RADAR/SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVER
FORECASTING EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION SO FAR.

WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL JET FLOW AND SHORT WAVE FORCING CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ORIENTED INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE BEST AREA FOR STRONG CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST
IOWA. WEAKER FORCING AND WEAKER WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
BAROCLINIC ZONE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI...WHICH SUGGESTS LESS
INTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT HERE. DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS A BIT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON AMOUNT OF
COVERAGE. HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE SCENARIO OF AN MCS
DEVELOPING OUT OF ANTICIPATED CONVECTION OVER THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED MID-UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. WITH
ALL OF THIS IN MIND...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MCS
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO PERHAPS PRESENT THE GREATEST RAINFALL
PROBABILITY. 00Z SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM OF OUR FORECAST AREA DEPICT
PWATS IN THE 1.5-1.6 INCH RANGE SO STILL A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT FROM STRONGER CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY PERIOD.

ALSO...WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BUMPED MIN TEMPS
JUST A BIT OVERNIGHT.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
320 PM CDT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BUT WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH CONFIDENCE STILL LOWER ON COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT
OF STORMS TONIGHT...HAVE NOT ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME
BUT DID ISSUE AN SPS TO RAISE AWARENESS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

IN THE NEAR TERM...QUIETER CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA DRY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING STEADY
STREAM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY DIMINISHING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO BRING
PRECIP ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BUT DONT REALLY AGREE. FEEL THAT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF LINE FROM OREGON TO
WATSEKA...WHERE STEERING FLOW COULD DRIFT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BRIEFLY OVER THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...BRIEF AND LIGHT
RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS IN AND
AROUND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE BREEZE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. A LACK OF ANY INHIBITION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS
THE CWA...AND WHILE SURFACE WARM FRONT SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA LIFTS NORTH. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED ON CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL RIDE ALONG THIS RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL BEGIN VEERING THIS EVENING AND THEN BE ORIENTED TOWARDS THE
CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AS WAA RAMPS UP WITH
THE VEERING/STRENGTHENING LLJ. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME STEEPER MID LAPSE
RATES...CURRENTLY OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...TO LINGER
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY GREAT WITH REGARDS TO THE
INTENSITY OF STORMS TONIGHT BUT WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
FORCING MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT
THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM TO PROVIDE
A HAIL/WIND THREAT. FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY COULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSSIBLY RESIDE
PER CURRENT ANALYSIS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

A GROWING CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THESE STORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY WITH REGARD TO OVERALL COVERAGE AND
EXACT PLACEMENT OF BEST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND WITH MY
CONFIDENCE NOT THE GREATEST WITH REGARDS TO RESIDENCE TIME OF ANY
STORM. NONETHELESS...OBSERVED HIGH PWAT AXIS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
CURRENTLY OBSERVED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH THIS HIGHEST AXIS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THESE HIGH PWATS IN
PLACE AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEG AND 850MB DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 15-16C...ANY STORM WILL EASILY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. DESPITE THESE CONCERNS...I ONCE AGAIN
DONT HAVE THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF COVERAGE/PLACEMENT AND HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THIS EVENING BUT IN THE
NEAR TERM HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. STILL
THINK THAT WHAT OCCURRED JUST TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY COULD
EASILY OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SETUP PROVIDING
BETTER/STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ANY LINGERING STORMS THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH MID DAY WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR
CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE DEPARTING STORMS COULD ALLOW FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND THE ENVIRONMENT TO DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN
DURING MID DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG LIFTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CLEARING WILL BE KEY WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS
ON THURSDAY BUT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF A GOOD AMOUNT OF HEATING COULD OCCUR. FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR STILL IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO CONTINUE CONCERNS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* CHANCE FOR TSRA THURSDAY MORNING.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z..
WE HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TS CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS
THE MAIN FOCUS OF SCT DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE MAIN TERMINALS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO
OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IOWA COULD MOVE OVER
THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SO I WILL LEAVE THE
CHANCES FOR TS IN AFTER 12 UTC.

KJB


//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
CHANCES AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THUNDER AT THE TERMINALS
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH A WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND PORTIONS OF IOWA ALONG THE
BETTER FOCUS OF A LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE
MAIN QUESTION WITH THESE STORMS ARE HOW FAR NORTHEASTWARD THEY REACH
LATER TONIGHT...AND HENCE IF THEY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
MORNING THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MN CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
DAYBREAK.

WITH OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOW TO MODERATE...I HAVE MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* LOW WITH TSRA LATE...LOW-MEDIUM WITH TSRA AFTER DAY BREAK
  THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR TSRA.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
158 PM CDT

FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST FROM
THE LOW INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE POSITION OF THE
WARM FRONT LIKELY BEING MODULATED AT TIMES BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.

IZZI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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