Area Forecast Discussion
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375
FXUS64 KLUB 260515
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1215 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with south winds expected through Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 851 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

UPDATE...
The isolated showers across the southern and eastern South Plains
have ended, with mostly clear and mild conditions expected
overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals next 24 hours. S-SE
winds will veer to S-SW Wednesday morning, then swing around back
to the S-SE by late afternoon. Some modest gusts around 20-25 kts
are possible Wednesday.

UPDATE...
Quick update to reconfigure PoPs and add a isolated mention into
the southern South Plains where a few storms have developed in
response to intense heating and weak convergence. This activity
should die off quickly around sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level high is sitting right over the south central US today
which will slowly slide westward later this week.  The regime
appears to become more supportive of northwest flow-type storms late
this weekend into early next week.

Thunderstorm activity should remain quite scant today across our
area.  That said, areas near the TX/NM state line look
to have the best shot at rain. Overall, as the week progresses,
we may see increasing activity, especially to our north. This
will be triggered by a sagging frontal boundary which stalls out
near our northern boundary Early Friday morning. Another back door
front tries to make it into our area Friday night helping to
augment rain chances in the north and northeast. Rain chances
continue to increase into the weekend with mainly evening and
overnight activity. Otherwise, continued hot with slight decrease
in temperatures with the increased humidity. With the setup for
the weekend, we could certainly see an increase in thunderstorm
strength given the extra shear. Thus, strong to severe storms will
be possible.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07



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