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051
FXUS64 KLUB 242348
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
648 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Current convective activity lined up along a weak Pacific cold
front/surface trough edging through the Rolling Plains with
showers still impacting KCDS as late as 02z perhaps. Then, we
should experience a lull in showers impacting the TAF sites anyway
until activity bulging northward early Sunday interacts with a
Canadian cold front moving in not long after daybreak. We have
made no significant changes at this point as Sunday still looks
like a bleak day with uncertain ceilings somewhere in the MVFR
range plus or minus and plenty of showers. Thunder looks like a
possibility as well and with the arrival of the 00z solutions in
the next few hours will allow reassessment for the 06z package.
RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

SHORT TERM...
We have seen widely scattered showers and thunderstorms roaming a
good chunk of the CWA (all but the western zones) through the day
today. This activity has more recently shifted into the Rolling
Plains ahead of a weak surface trough near the I-27 corridor and
within the deeper moisture caught up in the modest southwesterly
flow aloft. Afternoon heating has resulted in MLCAPE values of 1500-
2500 J/kg off the Caprock and this has helped to fuel an increase in
storm coverage and intensity, and we will continue to see the
potential to a few strong to marginally severe storms into the early
evening hours. In addition, PWATs in excess of 1.6 inches will
support very heavy rain rates, with the risk for minor flooding
where cells can train a bit. However, relatively quick storm motions
should preclude a more widespread flooding threat this evening. In
fact, the bulk of this activity may shift east of the CWA this
evening, though at least the southeast most zones may see the storm
and heavy rain threat persist.

After a bit of a lull in activity this evening, a developing upper
low centered over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico late
tonight and associated lower-level circulation near the Big Bend
will help to draw moisture back northwestward while also increasing
lift locally. As such, shower and thunderstorm coverage will expand
northwestward late tonight into Sunday morning. Attention will also
turn northward to a cold front that will be sweeping southward and
will move through the South Plains during the morning and early
afternoon. 850-700 mb convergence is progged to setup for period
across the southeast South Plains into the Rolling Plains and this
may lead to another round of locally heavy rainfall. Depending how
much rain this area receives through tonight, a flooding threat
could develop, but current thinking is that it should generally be
nuisance type flooding. We will continue to watch this though for a
possible more widespread heavy rain threat. Elsewhere, light to
moderate rain is expected north of the front along with gusty
northeasterly winds and relatively chilly temperatures. Plenty of
cloud cover and rain will make it difficult for highs to climb out
of the 60s, though morning lows will not be that much cooler (except
northwest where it may drop into the 50s again). Precipitation
intensity and coverage will begin to fade from north to south
through the afternoon hours as lift weakens and drier low-level air
invades.

LONG TERM...
Precipitation is expected to continue into Sunday evening favoring
the southern zones. However, with lift diminishing through the
night as the parent upper level low retrogrades westward across
Sonora, precipitation will begin to taper off. This trend
continues into Monday, although the setup may favor some afternoon
showers depending on the degree of warming. Along those lines,
quite a bit of relatively low mid cloud expected, but the lack of
low cloud will support increasing high temperature forecast for
Monday.

The rest of the extended looks fairly quiet. Upper level ridging
Tuesday will begin to dry things out and warm temperatures. Not
as much energy is progged to be ejected from the southwestern
CONUS when the retrograded low finally gets kicked out midweek.
Could see a few storms toward next weekend depending on evolution
of a trough out west, but not much to hang your hat on at this
point.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05