492
FXUS64 KLUB 132325
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
625 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through Monday afternoon.

 - Seasonable temperatures with highs in the 90s all week.

 - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday
   and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Weak SE flow will lead to modest Gulf moisture advection through
this evening, however forcing remains minimal and the latest more
reliable CAMs do not show any convective development at all across
the area. While a stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be completely
ruled out given the daytime instability, a generally pleasant
remainder of the day should be in order with partly sunny skies and
highs reaching the mid-to-upper 80s. Quiet conditions will persist
into the overnight hours, with lows falling into the 60s. Despite
the continued light winds, moisture parameters somewhat improve
Monday, with PWATS around 1.25-1.5" off the Caprock. Again, not much
will exist in the way of forcing, however as with today an isolated
storm cannot be completely ruled out during the afternoon/evening
hours and CAMs are slightly more optimistic. That said, PoPs have
been capped at 20% and in general we should see very similar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The subtropical upper high currently centered along the West Coast
of California and Baja is expected to build eastward through
Wednesday, but it remains relatively weak compared to other
summers.  Drier northeasterly flow aloft should keep rain chances
rather low Monday night through Wednesday and allow daytime highs to
warm back into the 90s.

By Wednesday evening the weakness in the upper ridge (trough)
located in central Texas today should get stretched out and allow
some of the associated moisture to be drawn back toward the
monsoonal moisture axis remaining in New Mexico to our west.  As a
result, NBM guidance bring back chances of late afternoon or
nighttime showers and thunderstorms to most of the forecast area,
Wednesday and Thursday.  Rain chances will range from 10 to 50
percent, highest in the Southwest Panhandle and lowest in the
Rolling Plains. Those rain chances may be over done, but we don`t
plan on changing significantly from the NBM guidance.  The remainder
of the forecast for Friday and Saturday remains dry with seasonably
warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR is largely expected over the next 24 hours though we could
see some scattered showers and thunderstorms form across West
Texas after midnight local. This sort of overnight activity
sometimes manifests itself while at other times it fails to
materialize. However, general good agreement in the data suggests
that it is worthy of a conditional mention. Additional storms may
be possible Monday afternoon but we`ll hold off on explicit
mention given uncertainty.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...26