Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 292339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
639 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Continued VFR. Earlier MVFR ceilings have scattered out for the
most part and will be replaced by thinning high clouds tonight
with light NW winds.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

GOES water vapor loop shows the upper level low continues to spin
off to the northeast this afternoon while leaving an elongated
trough axis across the area.  Low and mid level moisture remains
trapped in the trough and weak synoptic lift east of the trough axis
has continued to produce light rain to drizzle through the
afternoon.  The bulk of the light precipitation is across the
central and southwestern South Plains and central Rolling Plains
while drifting slowly southward.  Expect to see this weak
precipitation continue through the early evening before synoptic
lift weakens enough and the trailing trough axis moves east of the
forecast area.  Visible satellite already showing a few breaks in
the clouds across the southern Texas Panhandle and expect to see
skies gradually clear through tonight leaving mostly clear skies for

North winds of 20 to 30 mph behind the cold front will decrease in
speed after sunset and gradually swing back to the west which will
help to moderate how far temperatures will fall by Thursday morning.
Expect to see mid 30s across the northwestern South Plains and there
could be a few locations that manage to make it to near freezing,
especially in low-lying areas in our typically cool northwestern
counties. Temperatures across the Rolling Plains will remain in the
40s as cloud cover will linger across this region until nearly
sunrise Thursday and west wind will have a bit of downslope
component to keep temps from bottoming out. Wind will remain out of
the west but speeds will be much lower, generally around 10 to 20
MPH through the day Thursday.  Ample sunshine under mostly clear to
clear skies along with the downslope component to the wind should
help to bump highs back up to around 30 degrees above what we have
seen so far today so a nice day will be in store for the region.


Upper level ridging will make a cameo appearance early Friday ahead
of an approaching upper low. The ridging along with south to
southwesterly surface winds will allow a warmup back into the upper
70s/mid 80s. A developing surface low ahead of the upper low will
allow for breezy conditions Friday afternoon mainly along the TX/NM
state line. Models agree with the evolution of the upper low up to
this point but then continue to diverge with the forecast by
Saturday. The ECMWF continues to have a more southerly track than
the GFS (tracking the center of the low over the FA) and would be
more rain friendly. The GFS brings the upper low northeastward
across the OK Panhandle leaving our region high and dry. The
forecast will continue to reflect low PoP chances given the
continued uncertainty with the track of the low. Either way a cold
front is still progged to push through by Sunday morning helping to
give another cool day. Another upper low is progged to move across
the central CONUS by mid week and is thus far looking to provide us
with our next bout of windy conditions. MOS guidance is providing us
with near 40 knots of winds for next Tuesday afternoon. For now the
forecast will reflect sub advisory level winds and lower than MOS
guidance but higher than most other model output. If trends continue
then the forecasted wind speed will have to be increased further.




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