Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 280149 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
849 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Minor update, primarily to adjust temperature grids downward in
the near-term across the southeast zones where earlier convective
outflows have already knocked readings into the lower and middle
70s (a bit ahead of schedule). Sky grids were also adjusted in
accord with recent satellite trends, with very minor tweaks to
several other grids. Convection was waning locally, though a
little activity could linger/redevelop through the late evening
and overnight hours as decent moisture remains in place downstream
of a southwestern upper low. The best storm chances and highest
PoPs have been maintained across the northwest zones where
convection in eastern New Mexico could propagate across the state
line over the coming hours. Elsewhere, the isolated storm mention
with sub-15% PoPs was maintained.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

AVIATION...
There is a very slim possibility for -TSRA in the vicinity of any
of the terminals this evening, the chances too low to include in
the TAF. A better chance of t-storms is expected Sunday afternoon,
and PROB30 groups have been added late in the forecast period.
Surface winds will remain light outside of t-storm activity. A
outflow boundary may bring a north or northeast wind shift
through KCDS early Sunday morning, otherwise south to east winds
are expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Minor trough in light southwest flow was evident on water vapor
imagery from about Dalhart south to Wink and should continue to
foster some storm development through the afternoon. Other than a
thermal ridge enhancing vertical mixing in the western Panhandle,
the surface pattern itself is void of any focus for storms. MLCAPE
of 1500-2000 J/kg is supportive of another round of pulse storms
like last evening with slow storm motions breeding pockets of heavy
rain.

Convective evolution and maintenance overnight should be less than
last night`s protracted round given a more subdued look to water
vapor imagery upstream of the region. Nonetheless, lingering
convective boundaries, a modest LLJ and weakly cyclonic SW flow
aloft argues keeping a low mention of thunder over much of our
domain. This thunderstorm threat should amplify on Sunday as a
rather impressive upper low draws closer from NW Arizona. Although a
meridional upper jet streak will reside just west of the TX-NM
border during the day, model progged streamlines show increasingly
favorable diffluent upper flow over the western half of the CWA
throughout the afternoon and evening. This theme looks to only
improve by Sunday night as the diffluence axis becomes parked from
about Carlsbad northeast to Amarillo. WPC QPF accounts for this
scenario well which is reflected in our highest PoPs on the Caprock.
Persistence of this favorable ascent over the same region and
implied training of precip may very well open the door to a
widespread heavy rain threat - something that will be evaluated more
closely in later forecasts.

LONG TERM...
Upper level jet energy will remain well north of the area for the
first part of the extended as high pressure in the southeastern
CONUS attempts to dominate the weather picture out that way.  A few
weaknesses are noted within the confines of the high most notably a
relative low along the middle Texas coast.  This feature should
remain nearly stationary until about the middle of next week when
the SERN high begins to retrograde.  Thus, the coastal low should
make its way through the northern Mexican states on its way west. To
our west, a low over New Mexico will also see little movement given
the strength of the aforementioned high.  By late Monday or Tuesday,
the low will fill and simply revert to a weakness between a high off
the California coast and the high to the east which should be
sitting across the southern Mississippi Valley.  To our northwest,
embedded disturbances will scoot northeastward in the mean flow and
occasionally influence our weather.  However, by mid week, high
pressure will come to dominate the central CONUS bringing an end to
rain chances.

By Monday morning rain showers and a few Thunderstorms should be
ongoing with the western part of the CWA initially favored.  As the
day continues, scattered storms will persist and this trend will
continue into Wednesday and Thursday.  Model QPF fields are
relatively noisy and lack inter-model coherence and thus will
continue the mention of slight chance to chance activity.  The
general trend will be to have less precipitation opportunity into
late week, but the guidance remains in a state to where confidence
in complete dry conditions CWFA-wide is tough.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

33/23


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