Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 291111
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
611 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Surface moisture remains quite limited today as the cold front
from Saturday night has now pushed down to the Texas coastal
region. Dew points locally today will remain in the 30s today.
Despite the low moisture values, steep mid level lapse rates and a
disturbance in the upper atmosphere moving southeast should
trigger scattered thunderstorms in the higher terrain of northern
New Mexico. Those storms are forecast to move east and southeast
toward the panhandle. As such, we have a slight chance of rain in
the southwest Panhandle tonight. However, in all probability the
storms will fall apart before reaching the state line.

South to southeast surface winds will continue and we expect
increasing atmospheric moisture begin a much more rapid increase
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a disturbance in an upper trough
on the West Coast approaches from the west. Accordingly we expect
thunderstorm chances to increase significantly from late Tuesday
night through Wednesday and Thursday. With precipitable water
increasing to around 1.3 inches and winds aloft relatively
light, we could see some slow moving storms with locally heavy
rainfall.

In the longer range of the models starting about Friday and going
through the weekend the forecast upper pattern becomes
significantly less certain with significant differences between
the models. Rain chances are expected to decrease, but not
completely.

With regards to temperatures, we have gone fairly close to
guidance. Highs should remain in the 80s through Thursday with the
increasing moisture and cloud cover, but then warm to the 90s for
the weekend.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

51


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