Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLUB 312347
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
647 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH ONLY KLBB IS IMMEDIATELY THREATENED BY STORMS.
PATCHY LOW CIGS/VISBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN COVERAGE SO HAVE KEPT THE TAF FORECAST
CONSERVATIVE AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH
ANY TAF SITE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS NAILING DOWN
WHEN AND WHERE CONVECTION WILL POP UP. WE HAVE A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH MULTIPLE OTHER SMALL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
KICKED OFF FROM THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE ALSO BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY...SO
NEEDLESS TO SAY...BOUNDARIES ABOUND! WE ALSO HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN. ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A LARGE COMPLEX OF
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH AND AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS MOVING WEST ARE DOING A
SORT OF DO-SI-DO. THE SOUTH PLAINS ARE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE
ALLOWING AMPLE MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTH. AS OF
19Z...ISOLATED TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF
DICKENS...KING...ASPERMONT AND KENT COUNTIES AND ANOTHER AREA WAS
STARTING DEVELOP OVER IN COCHRAN COUNTY. SO...FOR POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HAVE GIVEN CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF AREA THAT PIVOTS
AROUND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO WEST. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT...THOUGH SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE
VIRTUALLY NIL.

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS AS WE WILL BE PRETTY SATURATED AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CALM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF WITH THE MORNING SUN...BUT IT
COULD STILL BE PRETTY SOUPY FEELING TOMORROW. WITH THE AMPLE
MOISTURE...KEPT TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM SEASONAL HIGHS.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL DAMPEN SOME MONDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. THIS WEAKNESS
IN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
MODEST FORCING SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD MONDAY EVENING. IT REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN PREFERRED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION OWING TO
WEAK FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION OF MESOSCALE SFC
BOUNDARIES. IN GENERAL...BROADBRUSHED POPS NEAR 30 PCT LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM.

BEGINNING TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD MOVING
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE TROPOSPHERE WILL
EXPERIENCE MARKED DRYING. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF
PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY...IF NOT AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND
INCREASED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  85  66  90 /  40  40  20  30
TULIA         67  84  66  91 /  50  50  30  30
PLAINVIEW     68  85  68  92 /  40  40  30  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  68  94 /  40  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       70  87  71  93 /  40  40  20  30
DENVER CITY   67  90  67  95 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  89  68  95 /  20  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     72  86  72  95 /  40  50  40  20
SPUR          71  89  69  96 /  40  40  30  30
ASPERMONT     73  92  72  97 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.