Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 171704

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1104 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

VFR is expected through the TAF period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

Frigid surface ridge was in full retreat mode early this morning
ahead of light southerly winds, however temps in many areas were
even colder than 24 hours ago given a lack of clouds and even
drier dewpoints. Winds have occasionally cracked 10 mph at various
West TX Mesonets resulting in a few locales seeing wind chills of
minus 5 to minus 10, but this should remain the exception as most
areas retain milder values with lighter winds. Otherwise, moist
isentropic ascent from 4000-6000 feet has triggered an abundance
of stratus in the western Permian Basin that is advecting slowly
north and should reach Yoakum-Terry County before daybreak.
Rapid update models have not resolved this thin cloud layer`s
northward push well at all, so we`ve applied some climo/pattern
recognition skills along with satellite extrapolation to forecast
some low clouds reaching the Lubbock area after sunrise, before
slowly eroding thereafter.

Thicknesses today will undergo modest gains even as a weak trough
passes to our west in decaying NW flow. By Thursday, this wave
should assume better definition as it encounters improving moisture
near the Big Bend, but this will be too distant for any impacts locally.
Behind this upper trough axis, winds aloft will back from NW to SW
and encourage a strong uptick in thicknesses through Friday. This
deeper SW flow will promote lee troughing and breezier winds on
Friday and again on Saturday, complete with some wildfire growth
potential both days given afternoon RH values in the teens. The
deterministic and GEFS models show good clustering on Sunday for
a neutral tilt trough to impact the southern High Plains with the
local area falling victim to mid-level dry slotting south of an
emerging upper low. Although westerly winds could easily reach 30+
mph with blowing dust in this pattern, wildfire concerns may be
afforded a reprieve by cooler temps and higher RH values courtesy
of a Pacific FROPA early in the day. Stout height falls in the base
of the developing upper low could even breed light precip in our
NW zones on Sunday, especially if this lift is favorably timed
with a modified Canadian cold front diving south with time. Opted
to keep PoPs below mention for now as the pattern is too conditional
for measurable precip. Quieter weather then resumes on Monday
under an increasingly zonal flow regime for much of the CONUS.




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