Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 200806

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
306 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Our general weather pattern will begin to change today resulting
in a wet pattern this weekend into early next week.

For today, we will undergo height rises which will put the kibosh
on thunderstorms in the Rolling Plains. This will occur along with
another day of very warm temperatures likely pushing over 100
degrees in the Rolling Plains. As a result of the height rises,
upper level winds will begin to back in advance of the upper level
trough entering the western CONUS. Models do bring a weak short
wave overhead on Thursday afternoon with most models convecting
along the dryline. Instability will only be around 1000 J/kg
which is less robust than observed the past several days where
severe weather occurred.

The large trough covering the western CONUS will open up the
moisture stream from the Gulf of Mexico pushing the dryline well
into eastern New Mexico. Furthermore, southwest flow aloft will be
able to tap into Pacific moisture by Friday. Initially, on Friday,
lift will be concentrated near the state line and into eastern New
Mexico. This lift will slowly spread more eastward each day
through the weekend through Tuesday. It still looks as though
training storms and flooding will be the primary threat from
activity during this time frame. Some instability will be present
especially early in the weekend which may support a slight chance
of a severe threat in the form of large hail and damaging winds.




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