Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 301754 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1254 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Regional radar imagery showed a thunderstorm complex moving into
northwest Arkansas this afternoon. Have included TEMPO thunder at
KHRO and KBPK this afternoon to account for the likelihood of this
complex affecting northern terminals. Believe scattered
convection will develop elsewhere across Arkansas but confidence
in exactly which terminals it will affect as well as exact timing
is not high enough to include TEMPO thunder for central and
southern terminals. Instead...will just go with VCTS and amend
when timing/placement becomes clearer. Convection will wane with
the loss of daytime heating and VFR conditions will prevail
through the first half of the night. However...MVFR visibility and
ceilings will be a possibility for central and southern
Arkansas...while LIFR conditions will be possible in the north.
This will be after roughly 08z for both scenarios.

&&


Short Term...Today through Sunday night

Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as new models are not showing any real variations from previous
thinking. Basically, unsettled conditions this weekend will be on
the decrease as upper level ridging is set to build back in over the
area.

Upper level ridging remains over the four corners with downstream
troughing over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. On the surface a quasi
stationary boundary remains stretched out across the northern part
of the state. Several weak impulses are still expected to move
through the prevailing northwest flow with a continuing chance of
mainly diurnally driven convection. Air mass remains choked with
moisture with PWATS at or above 2 inches so locally heavy rain
remains a concern.

Precipitation chances will begin to decrease Sunday night and into
the extended period as the aforementioned frontal boundary finally
starts to lift to the north and the upper ridge begins to expand over
the area.

Long Term...Monday Night through Friday
A ridge of high pressure will build over the region through much
of the period. Under the ridge, it will definitely feel like summer.
Above average temperatures are expected, with afternoon heat index
values from 100 to 105 degrees. Indices will briefly exceed 105
degrees in places. Any precipitation will be isolated to scattered,
and mainly during the heat of the afternoon and early evening.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

64
Aviation...99



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