Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 040747
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WHICH IS TRAINING OVER AREAS FROM PIKE TO DALLAS
TO LINCOLN COUNTIES. DO THINK IN THE NEAR TERM THAT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES SINCE LATE FRI EVENING...AND HAVE
POSTED SOME FFW AS FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
OTHERWISE...SOME STRONG WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD BE
SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE OVERALL SVR WX THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED HOWEVER. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AS LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH NEAR SFC MOISTURE LEVELS ARE PRESENT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FOCUS FOR MOST PRECIP THIS SAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
THIRD TO HALF THE CWA AS MOST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. FURTHER NORTH...THINK THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
DROP POPS AS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BE SEEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL PROBABLY SEE TEMPS A BIT WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON FRI AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WHERE PRECIP WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW FOR SUN...BUT OVERALL FLOW WILL
HAVE RELAXED SOME. AS A RESULT...THINKING THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN INTO SUN...AND
HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME AS A RESULT. SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
SEEN FOR SUN NIGHT AND FOR MON...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EVEN MORE. AS A RESULT...HAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR MUCH OF MON INTO MON NIGHT. BY TUE HOWEVER...A NEW FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NW...WITH POPS INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN TO END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...WITH THE GFS A
DRIER TREND...WHILE THE EURO A WETTER TREND. BOTH DO HAVE MOST OF
THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF ARKANSAS. THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MORE INTO
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE FORECAST
STARTS WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
AR...THEN TRENDS DRIER LATE IN THE EXTENDED ALONG THE DRIER APPROACH
OF THE GFS. THE GFS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF
AR...WHILE THE EURO SAGS IT FARTHER SOUTH TO NEAR THE MO AND AR
STATE LINE. LATE MODEL RUNS WILL FINE TUNE THESE TRENDS AND BETTER
CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND
NORMAL VALUES...THEN WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AR...THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  68  87  72 /  20  10  30  20
CAMDEN AR         87  72  89  73 /  60  20  40  20
HARRISON AR       84  67  86  69 /  20  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  71  88  73 /  40  20  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  71  89  73 /  40  20  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     84  71  88  74 /  70  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      86  70  87  72 /  40  30  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  67  87  70 /  20  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        83  69  87  71 /  30  10  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     85  70  88  72 /  50  20  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  70  89  71 /  20  20  30  20
SEARCY AR         84  69  88  71 /  30  20  30  20
STUTTGART AR      84  70  88  71 /  50  20  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59





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