Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 280607 AAC
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1207 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of MVFR ceilings with VFR ceilings will be seen over the next
24 hours. Isolated to at times scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms will be seen Monday night to Tuesday morning. Due to
uncertainty, only used VCSH in Tafs. Toward Tuesday morning some
areas of IFR will also form with patchy fog. Winds will be east to
south at 5 to 15 mph overnight, becoming more southeast to south at
5 to 15 mph toward Tuesday morning. Also, a low level jet will set
up Monday night over AR, and wind shear will be see in lower levels
at all TAF sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 900 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 )

Discussion...

Overall forecast on track. Earlier convection mainly over the
soutern half of AR, now in the central to northern parts of AR. Most
was still isolated with some storms producing small hail. Tonight
expect continued slight to low chance of convection over much of AR,
with a primary area of the northern half of the state where forecast
models have the most upper lift moving across. Severe potential
remains low and isolated overnight, with hail and winds the main
threats. Lows tonight will be from the lower 50s to lower 60. Winds
will gradually become more southeast. Tuesday forecast remains the
same with developing and increasing convection in the afternoon,
evening and into the overnight. Severe potential remains up. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 545 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/
Aviation...

Areas of MVFR ceilings with VFR ceilings will be seen over the next
24 hours. Isolated to at times scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms will be seen this evening and tonight. Due to
uncertainty, only used VCSH in Tafs. Toward Tuesday morning some
areas of IFR will also form with patchy fog. Winds will be east to
south at 5 to 15 mph tonight, becoming more southeast to south at 5
to 15 mph toward Tuesday morning. Also, a low level jet will set up
tonight over AR, and wind shear will be see in lower levels at all
Taf sites. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 240 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday Night
Data from local radars indicate scattered convection affecting
southern sections of the forecast area. Additional storms were
noted across northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana. This
activity was located to the north of a warm front, which will be
moving north overnight. Some additional activity will be possible
overnight, as a low level jet increases across an increasing
unstable atmosphere.

Forecast concern will be timing, and magnitude of severe
convection to affect the forecast area late Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Forecast soundings for Tuesday afternoon and evening are
quite supportive of supercell development. The question will be if
limited large scale forcing can support discrete cellular
development. An approaching cold front will support QLCS
development, which will sweep from west to east by early
Wednesday.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Monday
Lingering cool air expected across the area Friday into portions of
Saturday as surface high pressure lingers across the region Friday
before making a slow eastward shift on Saturday. Expect temperatures
to start out seasonal with a slow warming trend taking place.

Aloft, 500mb flow will be mostly zonal with no systems approaching
the state until the Sunday/Monday timeframe. That is when the flow
shifts more southwesterly and a few weak impulses appear to the west
of the state. Some rain chances will be seen Sun/Mon as low pressure
develops in the Plains and a cold front slowly approaches the state.
Decent surface pressure gradient could lead to some stronger
southwesterly winds at the end of the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...59


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