Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 280109 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
805 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

DID A FEW EARLIER UPDATES TO ADJUST POPS IN THE FIRST PERIOD AS
REMAINING SHOWERS WEAKENED AND MOVED SE. CURRENTLY ALL EVENING LIGHT
RAIN HAS PUSHED OUT OF AR. HOWEVER UPSTREAM A SHORT WAVE WAS
STARTING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER E KS AND WESTERN MO. THIS
IS HEADING SOUTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT AR LATER TONIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY AM WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP. HRRR MODEL ACTUALLY HAS
SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERALL ALL OF AR...AND WILL PROBABLY
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO ALL OF CWA WITH LATE EVENING UP. ALSO TEMPS
OVERNIGHT TO SATURDAY AM WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING IN SOME NORTHERN
TO NE LOCATIONS...AND SOME RISK OF RAIN SNOW SLEET MIX WILL BE
POSSIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE WITH
LATE EVENING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE SEVERAL ELEMENTS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.AVIATION...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
DISSIPATING OVER THE STATE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MISSOURI. THESE CLOUDS WILL REACH NORTH
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ELSEWHERE...AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE MORNING. EXPECT LOWERING CLOUD
DECKS IN THE MORNING AS WELL...TO MVFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

HAVE CONTINUED TO SEE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH
THE STATE TODAY...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WINDS PICKING UP. BEGINNING TO SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX A
BIT ACROSS SW MISSOURI AND SE KANSAS...THEREFORE THINK ALLOWING THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 00Z SEEMS ON TRACK. PRECIP ACROSS THE
STATE HAS BEEN STUBBORN WITH CLOUDS BEING SLOW TO CLEAR. JUST MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH POPS ENTERING THE FORECAST. THE MAV HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT
COLDER WITH THE LATEST MODELS RUNS...WITH THE MET HINTING AT IT AS
WELL...BUT NOT NEARLY AS DRASTIC. TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT LOW FORECAST
MORE TOWARDS THE MET. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH CHANCES GENERALLY FOR RAIN...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES FLYING ACROSS THE NORTH.

LOW TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE A BIT TRICKIER. MAV
CAME BACK SIX DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH THE MET
ABOUT TWO DEGREES COOLER. DID TREND MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD...BUT STILL
KEPT READINGS ABOVE FREEZING. AGAIN...CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT AND A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE
COME BACK A BIT WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL THINK TEMPS WILL
BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY WINTER WX HAZARDS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

OVERALL THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AT BEST WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTEND WITH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS
PREFERRED BUT NONE OF THEM REALLY PRODUCE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT WASHES OUT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT. THE NEW
FRONT WILL EXIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A TEMPORARY END TO
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL
STALL LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...AND THAT COULD RESULT IN MORE RAIN
CHANCES AS THE PERIOD ENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     34  45  34  64 /  20  40   0  10
CAMDEN AR         41  64  45  76 /  10  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       34  49  36  65 /  20  30   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    39  60  43  72 /  10  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  38  52  40  70 /  10  20   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     39  57  44  74 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      37  62  42  72 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  49  35  65 /  20  40   0  10
NEWPORT AR        34  45  36  63 /  20  40   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     38  53  42  72 /  10  20   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   38  57  39  69 /  20  20   0  10
SEARCY AR         34  47  36  67 /  20  40   0   0
STUTTGART AR      37  49  40  69 /  10  30   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







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