Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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186
FXUS64 KLZK 242303
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
503 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.AVIATION...
A cold front will move through Arkansas late tonight and early
Sat with no signficant impacts to aviation. While broken or
overcast mid level clouds are anticipated, along with perhaps a
sprinkle or two across northern AR, no MVFR ceilings are
anticipated. Winds will remain light despite a wind shift to the
north with the frontal passage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 237 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Dry conditions are expected to continue during this period.

Some amplification of the upper flow over North America is
expected during this period. A ridge axis will develop, from New
Mexico, to Saskatchewan, with lowering heights expected to the
concentrated along the Appalachians. This flow will promote a cold
frontal passage early Saturday across the forecast area. The
effect on sensible weather elements will be limited to cooler
temperatures across mainly northern sections on Saturday. A few
sprinkles will be possible across eastern sections during the
morning hours.

A southerly low level flow will develop on Sunday across the
forecast area, with above normal temperatures again expected
during the afternoon.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Sunday
Northwest flow aloft will be over Arknasas to begin the long term
period with high pressure over the southwest and an upper trough
over the northeast and east coast. The upper ridge will spread to
the east Sunday night through Monday night as another upper trough
enters the west coast. This trough develops a closed low
Monday...moves across the Rockies Tuesday and into the Plains
Tuesday night. The trough moves into the Great Lakes Wednesday night
and another upper trough crosses the Rockies...moving through the
Plains on Thursday. GFS and ECMWF are not in good agreement at
all.

Dry conditions will continue through the first part of the long term
period. High pressure will be over the state for Monday. A warm
front will move through the state Tuesday morning. Instability will
bring a chance of showers to the area late Tuesday. A cold front
will then move through the state Wednesday. Moisture will be fairly
limited. Do not expect any large QPF amounts. Small pops will
continue Tuesday night through Thursday night. Mainly above normal
temperatures are expected through the long term period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...32 / Long Term...44
Aviation...32



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