Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 211921
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
221 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH IT/S BEEN SAID MANY TIMES...AND MANY WAYS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.
THOUGH THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRAY SHOWER/STORM HERE OR THERE...
NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF A FORCING
MECHANISM.

LOOK FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE...WITH MAYBE A
LITTLE RELIEF IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIODS /WELL...OKAY...
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THIS TIME OF YEAR/.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES COULD COME CLOSE TO OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105...AND HEAT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY...IF NOT BY SUNDAY THAN LIKELY MONDAY...AS MORE OPPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM THANKS
TO A STRONG UPPER RIDGE STILL ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE APPROACHING 100 DEGREES FOR MANY PLACES ON MONDAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEWPOINTS MIX OUT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB
ABOVE 105 FOR SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
INDEED BE KNOCKED DOWN A BIT COME MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. HOW MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
THAT WILL LEAD TO BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS
MODELS ARE USUALLY TOO QUICK WITH PATTERN CHANGES THAT FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SUMMER. THAT SAID...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR TUE AND WED
AFTERNOONS IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES VERSUS MONDAY...WITH MID 90S
EXPECTED TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS.

AS STATED THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST/SOUTH THE TROUGH FROM THE
ROCKIES WILL MAKE IT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO ARKANSAS WED
NIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DURING
THAT TIME AND A COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS IS TOO QUICK...SETTLED WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S ON THU AND CARRIED OVER SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FROM WED
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY THU. WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF
CONSISTENTLY COOLER/WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

NEVERTHELESS...PERHAPS THIS HEAT WILL NOT BE AROUND FOR TOO TERRIBLY
LONG AFTER ALL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  98  73  99 /  10  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         73  96  71  98 /  10  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       71  96  70  97 /  10  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  96  73  96 /  10  10   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  96  74  98 /  10  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  96  73  97 /  10  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  95  69  96 /  10  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  98  70  99 /  10  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        73  97  74  98 /  10  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     73  96  72  97 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  96  70  99 /  10  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         72  96  71  98 /  10  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      74  96  73  97 /  10  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...64




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