Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 031933
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
233 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE ONLY SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SINGLE CELL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED...MAINLY DUE TO LARGE CINH REMAINING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL CONTUNUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. SEVERAL WAVES...PERHAPS CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW... ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TYPE
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE
FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO SET UP JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE AFFECTED BY THESE
MESOSCALE SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

55

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MODELS HINTING THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE 5H RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES BECOMING EVEN MORE
SCARCE AND LIKELY LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING /LESS HOT/ AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING CLOSER NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  95  73  92 /   0  20  40  50
CAMDEN AR         73  98  74  96 /   0  10  20  20
HARRISON AR       71  91  69  89 /   0  30  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  97  75  94 /   0  10  30  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  98  74  94 /   0  10  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     72  98  74  96 /   0  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      72  97  74  93 /   0  10  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  92  69  90 /   0  30  50  50
NEWPORT AR        73  95  73  93 /   0  20  40  50
PINE BLUFF AR     73  98  75  95 /   0  10  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  95  73  93 /   0  20  30  40
SEARCY AR         73  97  73  93 /   0  10  40  40
STUTTGART AR      73  97  74  95 /   0  10  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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