Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 260112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
812 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Have made very minor adjustments to overnight forecast temperature
traces, near term forecasts appear on track.



.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 608 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017)

VFR conditions will continue during this period. Any chances for
TSRA at northwest sections will occur after the valid TAF period.



SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday
Upper low pressure over the northeast U.S. and southern Canada will
move east tonight as an upper ridge builds over Arkansas. The upper
ridge will move east of Arkansas Friday and southwest flow will
return to the state. An upper trough will enter the Rockies Friday
night and move into the Plains Saturday.

Surface low pressure will drag a cold front into the Plains tonight
and a warm front will develop out ahead of it. Warmer temperatures
are expected Friday in the lower 80s to lower 90s and a bit cooler
Saturday with more cloud cover. Clouds will increase over the state
late tonight and Friday morning. Dew points are in the 50s currently
but will increase on Friday.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Friday afternoon
in the north...spreading south Friday evening. The cold front nears
the northwest corner of Arkansas Saturday morning. This will bring
increased chances for thunderstorms. By afternoon strong instability
is expected along with deep-layer shear. Given this...strong to
severe thunderstorms will become probable...with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats along with a few tornadoes.

LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Strong to severe convection is expected across at least northwest
sections early in the period, focused by the previously mentioned
frontal boundary.

Severe potential on Sunday will be strongly modulated by the amount
of convective overturning and residual cloud cover from Saturday
night`s activity.

The cold front will continue to move slowly south through late
Monday. Near to slightly above normal temperatures will still
prevail during this period.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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