Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 251124
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
524 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION...
TODAY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES AS UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL
BE WINDY TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 25KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
AND BRING A RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HEAD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY.
THAT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST...AND IT APPEARS
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE LITTLE ROCK
COUNTY WARNING AREA TO WARRANT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. WILL LET THE
DAY CREW EVALUATE THIS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN. WHILE IT
WILL LIKELY RAIN IN MOST AREAS...AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVE.
FOR NOW...QUARTER TO HALF INCH TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.

SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS
ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LONG TERM STARTS WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST OF THE STATE WITH
THE EURO THE QUICKER SOLUTION PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION OUT.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN
MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER...HOWEVER THEY ARE FAIRLY INCONSISTENT
FROM RUN TO RUN. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE INITIATION OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THURSDAY AND AS A RESULT...DID BACK OFF POPS.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING...THE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TRENDING WARMER. DID BEGIN TO
NUDGE TEMPS A BIT WARMER...YET STILL KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     52  38  56  48 /   0   0  20  50
CAMDEN AR         57  40  61  54 /   0   0  20  50
HARRISON AR       52  39  55  45 /   0   0  20  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  40  59  51 /   0   0  20  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  39  60  51 /   0   0  20  50
MONTICELLO AR     56  40  62  54 /   0   0  20  50
MOUNT IDA AR      55  40  59  50 /   0   0  20  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  38  54  46 /   0   0  20  50
NEWPORT AR        53  38  57  49 /   0   0  20  50
PINE BLUFF AR     55  39  61  52 /   0   0  20  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  39  57  48 /   0   0  20  60
SEARCY AR         52  36  58  49 /   0   0  20  50
STUTTGART AR      54  39  60  51 /   0   0  20  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...65





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