Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 291734 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...

CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAK CAP
APPARENT ON THE RAP SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHERN WI. THIS CAP WILL ERODE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY 2 PM. THEN EXPECT PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
AND MAYBE A SHOWER OR TWO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE U.P.
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH WI TODAY. THE PEAK
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT MID EVENING.

TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WOULD
ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTION. SMALL HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

PARADE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL
BRING MOSTLY MID CLOUDS AND ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION TO SRN WI.  BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS THIS AFTN AND EVE WHEN STRONGEST SHORT
WAVE AND SFC TROUGH SAG THROUGH SRN WI.  ISOLD -SHRA ACCOMPANYING
VERY WEAK FORCING ATTM OVER EAST CENTRAL WI SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z.
WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW POISED TO AFFECT SRN WI ALL DAY SO NOT IMPOSSIBLE STRAY
-SHRA COULD POP UP MID-MORNING...PRIOR TO MAIN CONVECTION EXPECTED
THIS PM. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN WI TONIGHT. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...MAY BE SOME -
SHRA LINGERING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MRNG IN THE
EAST.

MUCAPE VALUES LIKELY TO REACH THE 200-500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTN WITH
SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  WEAK SHEAR AND COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPS MAY RESULT IN SMALL HAIL FROM STRONGER CONVECTION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE EXPECTED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED WITH A FEW
VORTICITY MAXIMA HELPING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM TIME TO
TIME AS WELL. COOLEST 925 TEMPS ARE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS
CELSIUS WITH A PUSH TOWARDS 20 CELSIUS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MAKES A SHIFT EAST THOUGH STILL
NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME POPS AS LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS
ESPECIALLY INTO ERN WI. THE GEM IS SLOWEST ON THE DEPARTURE OF
ANY LINGERING VORTICITY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE GEM AND GFS TRANSITION TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS A FAIRLY BENIGN THOUGH SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY PROGGD FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STICK WITH THE DRY FORECAST. 925 TEMPS WARMER STILL REACHING
THE LOW 20S CELSIUS. SO LOOKING AT SOME LOWER 80S COMING BACK.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE ECMWF DROPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SRN WI FROM THE
NORTH...MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA
TIED TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR NORTH. WHILE THE MODELS ARE
DISAGREEING ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTICS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA IN EITHER SCENARIO SO WILL RETAIN THE ALLBLEND POPS AT
THIS TIME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ISOLD TO
SCT CONVECTION WL THREATEN TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY
CONVECTION THAT MAKES DIRECT HIT AT AIRPORT.  SMALL HAIL A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTN.  THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT.  THE WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR



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