Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 032031
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL DROP THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE IS
MINIMAL WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH UP TO 200 J/KG. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHEN THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. THERE IS AN INVERTED V
SOUNDING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS BUT WITH MIMINMAL CAPE ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY IN SE WI WITH WEAK
SURFACE CONVERFENCE SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE USA ON WED WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED WILL MOVE TO THE SE USA WED NT INTO THU WITH HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INTO SRN WI THU AFT AND LINGER INTO SAT AM. AT THE
SFC...THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI ON THU WHILE A N-S WARM
FRONT WILL THEN SET UP FROM UPPER MI THROUGH ERN WI. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO FRI WITH ESPECIALLY WARM TEMPS ON FRI AS 925 MB TEMPS
WARM ABOVE 20C. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND 70S FAR EAST. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY BUT WILL NOT TRAVEL TOO FAR INLAND ESPECIALLY ON FRI.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT. THERE ARE GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTORM WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND PLEASANT SPRING WX TO THEN PREVAIL ON SUN.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS INCREASING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 2 AND 6Z AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND IT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT EASTERN TAF SITES. 1-2 KFT
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT EASTERN TAF STIES
AND MAY LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH BROKEN VFR CUMULOUS.

.MARINE

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BRISK NORTH
WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADIVSORY IN
EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES MAY LINGER LONGER SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING


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