Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 250553
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
153 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG THAT COVERED MUCH OF UPPER MI THIS MORNING HAS BEEN QUICKLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR FROM W
TO E. EXPECT THE FOG TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES OVER FAR
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF ONTARIO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES TO THE NE...BUT WITH MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAINLY NE OF THE CWA...PRECIP WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER FAR NERN
LUCE COUNTY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PATH. ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MAINLY OVER THE ERN/NERN CWA.
HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY
SPREADING FROM SERN MN INTO WRN WI WILL ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT BEFORE BEING SWEPT SE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NOW FOR THE WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
TIGHT BETWEEN THE 987MB SFC LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND THE 1020MB RIDGE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND IA...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
WNW 925MB WINDS OF 38-45KTS ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN UPPER MI AT
18Z...STRENGTHENING TO 40-50KTS AT 00Z SUN. IF COLDER AIR WAS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT /SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE 0C AT 850MB/ AND THERE
WAS MORE OF AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...WINDS WOULD LIKELY GUST TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW AND POSSIBLE NERN UPPER MI
NEAR THE SHORE ON SAT. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECT GUSTS TO 40MPH MAX IN
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS. DO THINK WINDS JUSTIFY A
GALE WATCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH THE LONG
TERM FORECASTER TO BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON LAKE PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SAT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH HI PRES WL BRING DRY WX FOR SAT NGT/SUN...THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE WX PATTERN AS A
PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE UPR LKS...THE FIRST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE SECOND ON THU. EXPECT TEMPS INTO TUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT COLDER AIR IS ON TAP TO ARRIVE TUE NGT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND LINGER THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SECOND SHRTWV...THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATING SN AT LEAST OVER THE NW HALF IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN.

SAT NGT/SUN...DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG
ALF APRCHG FM THE PLAINS WL SUPPORT SFC HI PRES/AXIS OF MID LVL DRY
AIR THAT WL DOMINATE THE GREAT LKS. SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
APRCHG SFC HI PRES RDG AND SFC LO PRES MOVING INTO QUEBEC/FCST H925
WINDS UP TO 35-40KTS WL CAUSE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS THAT MAY APRCH
ADVY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP EARLY ON SAT EVNG. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR STRONGER WINDS WL BE ABSENCE OF SGNFT H85 THERMAL
TROFFING AND ISALLOBARIC WIND/RELATIVELY CHILLY LK SUP WATER TEMPS
THAT LIMIT LLVL INSTABILITY. THESE WINDS WL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU THE
NGT WITH SLOW APRCH OF SFC RDG AXIS/ WEAKER GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION. DESPITE MOCLR SKIES ON SAT NGT... THE STEADY NW FLOW
WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS ON SUN MRNG
OVER THE E NEAR LK SUP WL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RDG AXIS IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS MAY ARRIVE ON SUN AFTN
WITH APRCH OF WAD IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT
HI TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REACH 10C OVER
THE W BY 00Z MON.

SUN NGT/MON...AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS THRU SE CANADA INTO THE NE
CONUS AND LEAD SHRTWV LIFTS OUT OF DEEPENING TROF IN THE WRN
PLAINS...A VIGOROUS WAD PATTERN IS PROGGED TO SETUP IN THE WRN
LKS...SHOWN BEST ON THE 300-305K ISENTROPIC SFCS /H8-675/. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE IMPACT OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR...OPTED
TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...SHIFTING W-E ACRS UPR MI
AFT 06Z MON. ADDED A SCHC OF TS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAD BAND TO
ACCOUNT FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO 500J/KG ROOTED AT H8-85 AS
SHOWN ON NAM/GFS FCS SDNGS. WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOTTING/MID LVL
CAPPING ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHRTWV PASSAGE THRU NW
ONTARIO...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DIMINISH W-E DURING
THE DAY ON MON. BUT PLENTY OF LOWER CLDS WL LINGER N OF SFC WARM FNT
IN WI...LIMITING THE DIURNAL RISE OF TEMP. TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE AS FCST SDNGS SHOW HI LLVL STABILITY N OF THE WARM
FNT.

MON NGT/TUE...AS STRONGER SHRTWV DRAGS THE PLAINS TROF E INTO THE
UPR LKS...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO REDVLP IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES/
ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FNT. THE COVERAGE/EXTENT OF THESE SHOWERS  WL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL WAD RAIN BAND.

TUE/WED...SHARP CYC WNW FLOW/LINGERING DEEP MSTR IN TANDEM WITH H85
TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -5C BY 12Z WED LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
SHRTWV/SFC LO NEAR JAMES BAY WL SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPING LK ENHANCED
SHOWERS THAT WL MIX WITH SN AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE
NW HALF BY LATE TUE NGT. THIS PCPN WL DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF H5 RDG
AXIS/SFC HI PRES RDG ON WED. A GUSTY WNW WIND WL ALSO DEVELOP ON TUE
UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON THE SW FLANK OF LO MOVING TO THE NE BUT
THEN SUBSIDE ON WED WITH CLOSER APRCH OF THE SFC HI.

THU/FRI...EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONG SHRTWV WL BE DIGGING
SEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS BUT DIFFER SGNFTLY IN THE DETAILS...EVEN
WHETHER THE DISTURBANCE WL PASS TO THE S OR N OF UPR MI. THERE HAS
BEEN CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AS
WELL...SO WL RELY ON A CONSENSUS APRCH FOR NOW. THE MODELS WHICH
SHOW A FARTHER S TRACK...NOTABLY THE 00Z ECMWF...INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SGNFT ACCUMULATING SN. THE 12Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF
ON THIS FCST AND SHOWS THE STRONGER SHRTWV PASSING THRU NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR MI. BUT H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -10C WL SUPPORT SOME
LES EVEN IF THERE IS LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS A SURGE OF DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC WILL LEAD TO LLWS OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
AND CLEAR SKIES/SUNSHINE RESULTING IN GOOD MIXING...WINDS TODAY WILL
BE GUSTY TO 25-35KT AT ALL TERMINALS...STRONGEST AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LO PRES OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL DEEPPEN AND TRACK E TO FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY SAT EVENING...DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. UNDER THE TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT WNW GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO
DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE E HALF. ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR SAT MORNING
THRU SAT EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A HI
PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT TO MOVE TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY
ON SUN. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL DIMINISH THE GALES.
ANOTHER LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK E...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. AS
THE LO TRACKS NE TO JAMES BAY ON WED...ANOTHER W GALE IS LIKELY FOR
TUE INTO WED UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SW FLANK. A
WEAK HI PRES RIDGE WILL THEN DRIFT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WED. THE APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL
DIMINISH THE GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC






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