Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 281917
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
317 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...A WEAK SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL FOCUS BEING LOCAL TERRAIN
FEATURES. AN AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE HIGH PWS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AREAS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD ISSUES. ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

BY SUNSET OR SOON THERE-AFTER...CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...PATTERN OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO FOCUS ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES...SO WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS/AND PLATEAU.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM REMAINS JUST ON THE FRINGE OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANYTHING
THAT DOES FORM WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE INSTABILITIES WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH EACH NIGHT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...FORMING AGAIN AS THE DAY HEATS UP. INSTABILITIES
ARE STRONG DURING THE DAY...BUT SHEAR IS EXTREMELY WEAK...SO WILL
ONLY SEE THE TYPICAL POP UP THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM THE GULF. DIURNAL TYPE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THESE TWO DAYS...AND AS EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT...ANYTHING THAT FORMS WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AND UNCHANGED THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  85  66  84 /  30  50  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  84  65  85 /  20  40  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  84  65  85 /  20  40  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  85  63  85 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





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