Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 060753
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
353 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AFTER ANOTHER EVENING OF
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME FLASH FLOODING SHOWERS WERE JUST
ABOUT GONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
LINGERED IN A FEW SPOTS OVER NE TN AND SW VA. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS
LOCATED MOSTLY IN AREAS STILL RECEIVING SOME LIGHT RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 AREAWIDE. SOME DRIER
AIR WAS FINALLY WORKING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEHIND THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW THAT WAS STILL SPINNING NEAR
THE WV...KY...VA INTERSECTION. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
TN/VA BORDER WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THE UPPER LOW
WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL WANT TO
KEEP SOME SHOWERS IN EXTREME NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z SO KEPT LIKELY POPS THERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY.
CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY WITH ZONE ISSUANCE. ELSEWHERE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AND WARMS UP AS UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO SHIFT
EAST WHILE DRIER AIR MASS WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXCEPT UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 NE WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER. NEAR AVERAGE LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS VALLEYS WITH
MORE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF NE TN FOR TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DIE DOWN THIS EVENING SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO THE WET
GROUND. SOME AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP WORDING
PATCHY. THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE FROM
CONVECTION MOVING INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...NORMAL
SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN AN ISSUE FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE NAM
SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING A RIDGE INTO THE AREA...HOLDING AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO KEEP US IN
A DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH
BEST CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20 TO 30
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  70  90  72 /  20  20  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  69  87  70 /  20  20  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  69  87  70 /  20  20  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  63  85  67 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/MJB



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