Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 200704
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF FOG THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. EXPECT
FOG TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREA LAKES AND STREAMS. FOLLOWED MOS
GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN 2 AND 4 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS IS MUCH MORE
STABLE WITH THIS LINE MOVING IN...WITH NAM SHOWING ALMOST 2000 J/KG
CAPE VALUES. WINDS ARE UNIFORM THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SOME
SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS DECENT DRY AIR IN THE
MIDLEVELS IN THE EARLY AFTEROON WHICH COULD ENHANCE DOWNBURST AND
WIND THREATS. THE FRONT SEEMS TO BE A BIT SEPARATE IN TIMING FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF DIVERGENCE FOR OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING OF THE
CONVECTION UPSTREAM...AND THE FACT THAT THE STORMS NOW LOOK TO MOVE
IN EARLIER AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT DAYTIME HEATING...COULD SEE
MODERATE TO STRONG STORMS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BE MODERATE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER FOR
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN COAST AROUND FRIDAY...WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED TOWARDS OUR AREA. COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
BRINGING DOWN AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  61  82  59 /   0   0  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  61  80  56 /   0   0  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  60  80  56 /   0   0  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  53  78  52 /   0   0  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




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