Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 250730
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
330 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Ridging aloft will build into the area today from the west as the
closed low to our east continues to move away. Northeast sections
will have some clouds through the morning, but by the afternoon we
should have mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. The ridge axis
will be over the Appalachians on Wednesday, with a SW low level
flow in the TN Valley. This will provide temperatures well above
normal, with highs in the mid 80s for most Valley locations.

A deep trough over the Plains on Wednesday will be lifting NE and
become negatively tilted as it tracks into the TN and OH Valley
region. The NAM and GFS agree pretty well on the timing of storms
ahead of the cold front, reaching the Plateau around 12Z Thursday.
The severe threat with this system will be mostly to our west as
the timing is not favorable for instability from surface heating,
and the NE track of the surface low and upper trough should mean
a general weakening trend as storms approach our area. Likely PoPs
will be continued for Thursday, tapering off through the evening
as the front as the cold front exits to the south and east.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Relatively active Spring weather pattern continues with a short
wave building northeast across the Upper Midwest. The wave and
some warm and moist advection could allow for a few showers and a
thunderstorm or two at the end of the work week. That warm front
will advance well north of the forecast area later Friday night
into Saturday as an amplifying long wave trough presses slowly
northeast out of the Mountain West through the Great Lakes Sunday
into Monday. As this occurs, a deepening mid latitude cyclone will
drag a significant cold front through the Southern Appalachian
Region with an increasing probability of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night into Monday. Beautiful above normal warmth is in
store through most of the extended period with a return to more
typical early Spring temperatures by Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             78  57  86  63 /   0   0   0  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  77  56  85  61 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  56  86  62 /   0   0   0  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              71  52  84  55 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$
24/99


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