Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 010714
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
314 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS
SHIFTED TO OUR WEST TODAY FROM E TX NE TO CENTRAL INDIANA. HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BE RISING SLIGHTLY TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SLIGHT
INSTABILITY...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO TN-NC LINE AND
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA. PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS DEPICTED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST IN THOSE AREAS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED.

OPTED TO ALSO STAY DRY FOR THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL BUT SE TN. WARMER TEMPS FOR BOTH MAXES AND MINS
CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS VALUES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO VIRGINIA/
CAROLINA. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST SECTIONS. INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MAIN FORCING WILL BE OROGRAPHIC
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER/NEAR TERRAIN
FEATURES.  THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND SOUTH WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

OVERALL...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  63  88  65 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/DH



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