Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMRX 030700
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER REMAINS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND
SUNSET. DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH SOON AFTER SUNSET. LESS
CLOUD COVER...LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND RECENT RAINS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BE DENSE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA BEING A
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THEN REVEAL A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD GENERATE A
BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...
AS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY SLIGHTLY DECREASE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AFTER THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY TREND
CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             90  70  93  71 /  50  30  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  69  90  70 /  50  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       88  68  91  70 /  50  30  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  63  89  66 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.