Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 262011
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
211 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...A moist and unstable atmosphere will linger this
evening with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from
Camas Prairie (Idaho) eastward across western Montana. The main
impact will be lightning and ponding along roads under isolated
heavier rain showers.

A weather system and associated cold front will shift across
Orofino and Grangeville later tonight and then across western
Montana Friday. Ahead of this front, a few thunderstorms may
develop in southwest Montana Friday. The main impact will be local
downpours and brief ponding along roads. The frontal system will
also increase the winds, especially across western Montana from
late morning into the afternoon Friday. This will create
increasing waves on areas lakes (especially Flathead Lake).

A relatively cool air mass will shift across north central Idaho
and western Montana Friday afternoon into early Saturday. The big
difference between the current forecast and what was expected
earlier this week is the air mass now looks quite a bit drier. As
such, showers are no longer expected to be much, if any, of an
impact into Saturday. Instead, brief partial clearing may allow
temperatures to fall to near the frost point in valleys of
western Montana and some typical colder spots of north central
Idaho Saturday morning. The drier westerly flow that sets up
Saturday will also support local breezy afternoon winds.

The westerly flow and possibly a weak weather disturbance may
ripple across the northern Rockies Sunday producing a few light
showers, but mainly over the terrain.

A more organized weather system is expected to brush mainly
western Montana on Memorial Day. This should translate into
scattered light showers and rather cool...breezy conditions.

In the longer term, our confidence is growing that a warmer and
drier period may be in store for the mid to later part of next
week. Stay tuned...since not a lock yet.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm are
possible at all terminals across the Northern Rockies this
afternoon and evening through 27/02z. Brief moderate to heavy
rains can be expected with the heavier showers.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



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