Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
FXUS65 KMSO 281024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
424 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...Light to moderate rainfall overnight across much of
north central Idaho and western Montana has led to another damp,
foggy morning. As in previous mornings, take caution on your
morning commute, as fog could be dense at times, causing low
visibility to those traveling. Fog and/or stratus should lift by
later this morning.

We will finally see a brief break in precipitation today, as
moisture shifts far enough south and east to relieve most of the
Northern Rockies of rainfall. The exception will be extreme
southwest Montana and southeastern Idaho, where precipitation may
linger longer. Unfortunately, whatever minuscule break in
rainfall that we receive today will be quickly followed by yet
another day of periodic showers Saturday and Saturday night. Those
who plan to celebrate Halloween Saturday and/or Sunday should be
ready for rainfall and chilly temperatures.

Monday through Thursday, periodic light precipitation will
continue to stream over the Northern Rockies in persistent
southwest flow aloft. Rain showers on Monday (Halloween) are most
likely in the morning hours, with relatively dry conditions in the
evening. Snow levels drop below 5000 feet Monday night, with
travel impacted by briefly snow-covered roadways over area
mountain passes.

Models seem to trend drier for the Northern Rockies beginning late
next week, however a large scale pattern change appears to be
missing from the forecast equation. Model performance lately,
particularly for moisture fields, has been problematic in the
extended forecast periods. Thus, expectations of precipitation
have been kept close to climatology. Bottom line: skeptical of a
truly dry forecast in the next week or so.


.AVIATION...Ceilings and visibilities for KGPI and KMSO will once
again see impacts from rain and fog as a result of prolonged
moisture and saturation. Vsby/ceil will be restricted through at
least 28/1600Z for both terminals as a result of fog. Conditions
should improve thereafter. KBTM and KSMN, who did not receive
nearly as much rainfall as the aforementioned terminals, should
remain impact-free from fog/stratus. A break in precipitation is
expected throughout the day area-wide, however given how
saturated conditions are, expect cloud cover to remain abundant.
The threat for fog and more rain will return after 29/0600Z to the
Northern Rockies.



$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.