Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 312043
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
243 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...Difficult Travel over Passes Saturday Evening and Sunday...

.DISCUSSION...Confidence is high for a very wet storm system to
move through the entire Northern Rockies Saturday Afternoon
through Sunday. Model solutions have come into pretty good
agreement on placement and timing of this storm. While
precipitation will occur everywhere the focus of the heaviest
precipitation has shifted a bit further to the north and west.
About the only uncertainty that remains is snow levels and the
timing of when they will lower. That will be a crucial deciding
factor for how much snow may occur in the mountains and passes.
Current thinking is the heaviest precipitation will fall Saturday
evening through Sunday morning. Impacts and timing

1. ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER ALL MOUNTAIN PASSES IMPACTING TRAVEL.
Heaviest snow amounts will occur over Lost Trail Pass with 6-10"
possible. Amounts of other passes are uncertain at this time due
to timing of lowering snow levels.

2. SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS of west central and
southwest Montana. Total rainfall amounts of .50" to 1.0" are
possible late Saturday through Sunday.

3. Accumulating snows over higher elevation valleys in Southwest
Montana especially impacting Georgetown Lake with Phillipsburg and
Butte receiving lighter snow amounts.

Next week another pretty wet storm system will impact the region
Tuesday and Wednesday. The flow from this system will be mainly
westerly and warm which will typically impact mountainous
locations across the region.


&&

.AVIATION...Clouds will steadily increase and lower across the
Northern Rockies tonight. Precipitation is not anticipated to
impact any terminals until Saturday afternoon/evening.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot
     Region...Lower Clark Fork Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake
     Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER STORM WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon Eastern Lemhi County...Northern Clearwater
     Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi
     County.

&&

$$




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