Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 182022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
222 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

...Turning Much Warmer, Dry and Stable Saturday into early next

.DISCUSSION...The relatively deep layer of moisture on Thursday
will transition into a cooler, but more shallow moist northwest
flow tonight and Friday over north central Idaho and western
Montana. This means the heavier shower threat will shift to the
east and only leave a threat of very light showers or sprinkles.
The northwest flow should help clear out much of the smoke and
haze. The exception may be near the bigger fire areas of northeast
Oregon and north central Idaho.

A drier northwest flow should set up late Friday and Friday night
resulting in clearing and a colder night.

A strong ridge of high pressure should then build over the
northern Rockies Saturday into early next week. As this occurs,
day time temperatures will quickly warm to well above normal. The
down side is the atmosphere will become quite stable in the
valleys with haze and smoke likely increasing.

In the longer term, model guidance is not breaking down the
ridge of high pressure over the northern Rockies as quickly by
mid next week. A transition to a wetter pattern still seems
possible, but maybe delayed until late next week.


.AVIATION...A moist southwest flow will transition to a
west to northwest flow tonight into Friday.  The deep instability
and showers today will shift east and leaving a shallower moist
layer in the lower atmosphere. Some mountain obscuration is possible,
especially higher peaks tonight.



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