Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 022114
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
314 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front is moving into the area tonight and will usher in
another period of cooler weather and rain showers for central
Idaho and western Montana. Expect mostly light showers as the
system moves into the northern Rockies and becomes established
Friday, with the main wet period this weekend.

Amounts of rainfall are the most challenging aspect to this
weekend`s system, given the potential variability in placement
with time. That being said, confidence is highest that locations
across the Clearwater mountains in central Idaho, and locations
across west central and southwest Montana, will have the best
potential for receiving high amounts of rainfall from Friday
through late Sunday. Most places across western Montana and north
central Idaho will see measurable rainfall, however the
aforementioned locations could see the most when it`s all said and
done.

Upslope flow from east to west over the Glacier Park region
could help enhance precipitation production, thus increasing low
elevation rainfall and light high elevation snowfall in this
immediate area. Those with camping or back country plans of any
sort in Glacier Park this weekend should be prepared for raw,
cold, wet conditions.

A weak secondary low pressure feature has gained some additional
consistency in the models and thus a slight chance for
precipitation was extended into Monday. But overall conditions
should be quite nice with highs in the 70s and afternoon showers.
For Tuesday and beyond forecast models are really struggling to
resolve the upstream weather pattern over the Pacific Ocean due to
interactions from significant tropical cyclone activity. Thus
confidence in the forecast becomes quite low with time. But
generally speaking, near normal temperatures with little chance
for additional precipitation appear to be at least a little
consistent through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Breezy conditions and showers this evening as a cold
front moves through the region. Only expect brief light rain with
minimal ceiling and visibility restrictions. KMSO and KGPI will be
the most affected by the front with mainly just gusty winds
affecting KBTM and KSMN through the evening. The frontal passage
will help clear some of the lingering wildfire smoke from the area
as well.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Deerlodge/West
     Beaverhead...East Beaverhead.

ID...&&

$$


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