Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 260921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
321 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...Hot and dry conditions will continue today for most
areas. The threat for thunderstorms will expand slightly further
northward compared to yesterday, generally south of a line from
MacDonald Pass to Skalkaho Pass to Riggins, ID. There will be a
mixed bag of threats as thunderstorms will be capable of locally
heavy rain and gusty winds. Forecast models still hint at the
potential for a few nocturnal thunderstorms tonight, but coverage
should remain isolated at best.

On Thursday, monsoonal moisture will spread even further north
with thunderstorms chances reaching into the Mission and Seeley
valleys by the afternoon. The highest concentration of convective
activity will still remain generally south of a line from Butte
to Georgetown Lake to Lost Trail Pass. A couple of potential
impacts stand out for Thursday afternoon/evening: first, slow
storm motion and deep moisture may lead to a localized flash
flooding threat for southern areas. Second, thunderstorms from the
Bitterroot Valley northward could produce gusty outflow winds
which could aggravate the fire fighting efforts during the late
afternoon and evening hours.

Convective potential will exist once again for the same region on
Friday, and perhaps Saturday as well, as continued unstable
atmospheric conditions mix with monsoon moisture. Still, northwest
Montana seems to be left out of the threat during this entire
stretch of time.

Chances for afternoon thunderstorms will decrease somewhat as we
head into early next week. The overall weather pattern for next
week looks like it will be hot and dry for the entire Northern
Rockies region.


.AVIATION...KMSO and KGPI will again see generally VFR conditions
today, although smoke from area wildfires could affect visibility
at KMSO from time to time. There will once again be a chance of
thunderstorms at KSMN and KBTM between 26/2000z and 27/0300z. The
main threats from thunderstorms will be gusty winds to 35kt, along
with a brief reduction in visibility due to heavy rain. Shower
activity will diminish during the evening hours.



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