Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 011017
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
417 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...Very Hot & Dry Saturday and Sunday...
...Return to Daily Thunderstorm Chances by Monday...

.DISCUSSION...
A very hot and dry air mass will impact the northern Rockies
through Sunday as a strong ridge of high pressure moves into the
area. Temperatures should peak for most areas on Sunday at about
10 to 15 degrees above normal, but generally a few degrees shy of
records. For reference, the last time Missoula and Kalispell were
within range of triple digits was the 4th of July.

Critical fire weather conditions are also expected this weekend,
especially across northwest Montana where very dry fuel conditions
will coincide with very low relative humidity, hot temperatures,
local breezy conditions, and an unstable atmosphere this
afternoon. In addition to a historically dry spring, northwest
Montana did not receive much precipitation from the recent storm
earlier this week, hence the very dry fuels.

On Monday, the hot and dry pattern will begin to change as the flow
shifts to more southwesterly. The airmass associated with this
flow pattern will be more moist, and bring chances for showers for
the first half of the weak. Initially showers could be dry, but as
moisture increases, brief heavy rains with occasional lightning
will be possible. Wednesday currently looks like the day with the
best chance for some stronger thunderstorms, especially in the
Lehmi county & southwest Montana region. Temperatures will
moderate during the work week as well, with highs closer to
average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION....Clear skies will continue for all terminals today.
Breezy winds are expected by this afternoon, with the stronger
winds over northwest Montana. KGPI may see gusts as high as 20kts.
Density altitudes will be high today and Sunday with very hot
temperatures in the area.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
     evening Flathead/Glacier Park...Kootenai...Salish and
     Kootenai Reservation...West Lolo.

ID...&&

$$



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