Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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952
FXUS66 KMTR 281130
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
430 AM PDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A ridge of high pressure will build into our region
and provide warmer weather the next couple of days. At the same
time locally breezy northwesterly winds will continue. Cooler
conditions are likely on Thursday as a system moves through
Northern California. The ridge will rebuild by the end of the
week leading to another increase in temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM PDT Tuesday...Although temperatures
will be warmer today as a ridge of high pressure builds into our
region, it won`t feel very warm as breezy northwesterly conditions
can be expected from later this morning to the evening. In fact,
surface gradients are still impressive at this hour with SFO-ACV
at 5.5 MB. Winds of 15 to 25 mph can be expected in most spots
with local gusts over 30 mph likely. Temperatures will generally
be in the 60s to lower 70s at the coast with 70s inland.
Temperatures will see another 3 to 5 degree increase in most spots
for Wednesday as 925 MB values increase another 2C.

On Thursday an inside slider will move from Northern California
down into Nevada. Due to the track virtually all of the showers
should stay to our north and east. However, models do keep the
outside shot of light rain hitting higher elevation locations.
Kept a few mentions of PoPs around 20% for those spots. Bigger
impact will be another round of breezy conditions followed by
cooler temperatures. Highs will drop back into the upper 50s to
the upper 60s.

The ridge will rebuild and move back to our region starting on
Friday and continuing into the weekend. Some disagreement between
the models as far as how much warming will occur. ECMWF is running
3 to 7 degree warmer than the GFS. Based on its better
verification, the forecast was nudged toward the higher values.

Longer range guidance favors dry conditions through at least the
middle of next week. Some signs after that we will flip back to a
wetter pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 4:30 AM PDT Tuesday for 06Z TAFs. Moderate to
high confidence that VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24
to 36 hours at terminals. West to northwest winds will pick up
this afternoon with gusts exceeding 20 to 25 kt possible. Mostly
clear to clear skies are expected through the next 24-36 hours
with no stratus concerns at the moment.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions expected. Increasing west to
northwest winds this afternoon with exceeding 20 to 25 kt possible
through the evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Potential for brief scattered to broken
low clouds around KMRY before 15Z Tuesday, but otherwise VFR
conditions expected with west to northwest winds expected by the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...as of 04:19 AM PDT Tuesday...A long period northwest
swell will move through the coastal  waters on Tuesday. Moderate
and gusty northwest winds will continue for the next several days
as a strong surface pressure gradient builds over the region.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar
             SCA...Mry Bay from 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell
AVIATION: Rowe
MARINE: Rowe


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