Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 240437
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
937 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN SLIGHT WARMING. OUTSIDE OF
PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MOST WARMING WILL BE CONFINED
TO INLAND AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CA TODAY TOUCHED OFF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS LAKE COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS
IN LAKE COUNTY DID BRIEFLY CROSS INTO FAR NORTHERN SONOMA AND
NAPA COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS SINCE ENDED.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INLAND OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SAME TIME...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN. THUS...WE CAN EXPECT EARLIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING
ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

THE WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY STALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS YET
ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE PAC NW AND TEMPORARILY WEAKENS
THE RIDGE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE RIDGE
EASTWARD OVER CALIFORNIA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE ROBUST WARMING FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH 80S FINALLY RETURNING AFTER A LONG
ABSENCE. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE MAY 1ST AND 2ND THAT
TYPICALLY WARM LOCATIONS SUCH AS SANTA ROSA AND LIVERMORE WILL
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. MEANWHILE...COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY COOL AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY WILL MOVE S-SE DURING THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS. LOW CLOUDS FORECAST TO CLEAR BY 20Z
SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS DURING THE PERIOD. PARTIAL
CLEARING POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING FRESH SEAS WITH SHORT
PERIOD SWELLS. WINDS MAY EASE SLIGHTLY ON MEMORIAL DAY BUT NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RWW

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