Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
FXUS66 KMTR 210033
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
433 PM PST Mon Feb 20 2017
.SYNOPSIS...High impact event will persist through the afternoon hours
as an atmospheric river takes aim at the central California coast.
Periods of heavy rainfall are expected, especially along the coastal
ranges, along with strong and gusty southerly winds through this
evening. These conditions will likely result in widespread flooding,
downed trees and power lines resulting in isolated to widespread
power outages. Flooding of area creeks, streams and low lying,
poorly drained areas can also be expected as well as rises on main-
stem rivers. The threat for rock/mud slides, shallow landslides and
debris flows in recent burn scar areas will also increase during the
next 12 to 24 hours. Rainfall and winds will taper off late tonight
into Tuesday. Cool and somewhat drier weather conditions are
expected during the second half of the work week.
.DISCUSSION...as of 02:40 PM PST Monday...Much of the afternoon
forecast will be focused on the next 12 to 24 hours as a high
impact event persists over the Bay Area.
Over the last 24 hours rain and wind battered the Central Coast
with a wide range of impacts: downed trees, downed power lines,
flooding both small/large scale and debris/mud and rock slides.
Rainfall was greatest over the North Bay, East Bay Hills, Santa
Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Mts. Many remote stations in the
Santa Lucias had over 5 inches since yesterday. One interesting
factoid is SF Downtown surpassed their water year (Oct-Sep) this
morning at 10AM with 24.50 inches. Normal value for the year is
23.65 inches. Winds have been rather strong with numerous gusts
over 50 mph, most notably over the Santa Lucias.
Current situation synoptically puts a cold front moving into the
North Bay as we speak. The main focus of the heaviest rain is
confined to the front and just south of it. Farther upstream,
abundant lightning is being observed offshore near the upper
low/shortwave trough near 130W. Additionally there is an upper and
lower level jet heading toward the coast. Latest thinking is that
over the next few hours the front will continue to move southward
as the upper low/shortwave move toward the coast. As a result,
expect an increase in rain coverage/intensity. The biggest
increase will be mainly from the North Bay down to the Santa Cruz
Mountains. The additional rainfall tonight through tomorrow will
be a general 1-2" for mainly locations...lesser amounts in the
rain shadowed Santa Clara/Salinas Valley. Coastal Mts, North Bay
Mts, East Bay Hills and Santa Lucias 2-4" locally 6-7". Lots of
available moisture and orographics will lead to the higher
rainfall amounts in terrain favored spots. The other fly in the
ointment are thunderstorms. Latest model guidance, lightning
offshore and Storm Prediction Center indicate thunderstorms will
be possible later this afternoon/evening through Tuesday mainly
from Monterey northward. Any developed thunderstorm will cause
locally higher rainfall amounts. All that being, any additional
rainfall will only exacerbate already stressed
streams/creeks/rivers. Numerous hydro products are currently in
effect. Visit weather.gov/sanfrancisco for the latest information.
Winds will also ramp up with more widespread wind gusts/damage.
Highest gust as of late was Bottchers Gap with a gusts up to 70
mph. High wind warning remains in effect for coast and higher
terrain with wind advisory for inland valleys through 3 AM.
Simply put, we are not out of the woods yet. There maybe parts of
the Bay Area that are seeing sunshine and even a break in precip
this afternoon, but do not let your guard down. The second push
could get interesting, especially if convection really kicks in.
Expect overall conditions to improve late Tuesday into Wednesday
behind the departing AR and frontal boundary with a few lingering
High pressure builds in bringing cooler and drier conditions mid
week. In fact, enough clearing occurs overnight temps could drop
toward freezing with patchy frost for interior valleys. Medium
range models still indicate active late in the week and next
weekend. This next system looks to be much colder with lower snow
levels. 12z runs looks more impressive than the last run.
.AVIATION...As of 4:15 PM PST Monday...Frontal system currently
moving through the SFO Bay Area and extends off the coast of MRY
Bay. Surface low behind the front will lift northeast into
northern California tonight. Rain will turn to showers tonight and
continue through Tuesday. Southerly winds have been gusty in
ceratin areas but have been less than expected in others. This
makes for a tricky wind foreacst for tonight. Still expecting
gusty winds up to 40 kt as the surface low will be at its closest
to the area. Winds aloft are strong with sw winds up to 60 kt
at around 2000 feet. Therefore low level wind shear remains in
Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR for cigs and/or vsbys. Rain turning to
showers tonight with continued wet runways. Southeast winds
switching to southwest and increasing rapidly after 01-02Z to
25-30 kt gusting to 40 kt. Winds decreasing after 12Z.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR with rain turning to showers
tonight. Southeast winds gusting to 30 kt decreasing slowly after
.MARINE...as of 4:30 PM PST Monday...Gale force winds are
expected tonight as a slow moving cold front remains over the
waters. Winds will decrease to small craft by tomorrow morning.
moderate swell along with strong winds will result in hazardous
conditions. Additionally, this system will continue to bring
widespread rainfall along with a chance for isolated thunderstorms
late tonight into tomorrow morning.
.Tday...High Wind Warning...Higher terrain Bay Area to Monterey
and San Benito counties.
Flood Watch...Entire forecast area.
Wind Advisory...Entire forecast area.
GLW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 6 AM
GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 6 AM
GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 6 AM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 6 AM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 10 AM
GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 1 AM
SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar
SCA...Mry Bay until 10 AM
GLW...Mry Bay until 10 PM
SCA...SF Bay until 10 AM
GLW...SF Bay until 11 PM
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: W Pi
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