Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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558
FXUS66 KMTR 310545
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1045 PM PDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A gradual cooling trend got underway across inland
areas today and will continue into Sunday as the marine layer
deepens slightly. Smokey conditions will also continue over the
Monterey Bay Area northward into the South Bay as a result of the
Soberanes Fire. Little change is forecast through next week.
Temperatures will be near normal through much of the week and low
clouds will persist near the ocean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 9:00 PM PDT Saturday...A slight uptick in the
depth of the marine layer, along with increased southerly low
level flow, resulted in about 5 to 10 degrees of inland cooling
today. The latest data from the Fort Ord profiler indicates the
marine layer continues to gradually deepen and is now slightly
deeper than 1500 feet. This should translate to a continued
cooling trend inland going into Sunday. The deeper marine layer
will also moisten up the airmass on the lower slopes in the Santa
Lucia Mountains...at least around the 1500 foot level...which is
an encouraging development for fire containment efforts on the
Soberanes Fire.

Smoke from the Soberanes Fire continues to spread to the north and
northeast as transport winds are primarily out of the southwest.
Short-term models indicate little change in transport winds
through Sunday and Monday which will mean continue smokey
conditions across northern Monterey and San Benito counties and
southern Santa Clara county over the next couple of days.
Indications are that winds will switch more to the west and
northwest by late Tuesday which will move the smoke more to the
east and southeast.

The upper trough to our north that has triggered our modest inland
cooling trend is forecast to move off to the east by late in the
weekend. But then another trough is forecast to move into the
Pacific Northwest by Monday evening and yet another trough will
drop south into the Pacific NW by late in the week. This forecast
synoptic pattern evolution will keep our temperatures near normal
or even slightly cooler than normal through most of the week
ahead.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:45 PM PDT Saturday...Smoke will continue to
linger around the forecast area tonight as mid level winds
persist out of the south. The marine layer has deepened to about
1500 feet and low clouds have already begun to impact several
terminals for the night.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
about 1100Z Sunday morning. First guess at Sunday morning burn
off is 1700Z. Westerly winds will slowly become light overnight.

Confidence is moderate.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Smokey conditions are being reported at
KMRY and KSNS this evening. Stratus is in place over the
terminals for the night. First guess at Sunday morning burnoff is
1900Z at KMRY and 17:30Z at KSNS.

Confidence is moderate.

&&

.MARINE...as of 10:35 PM PDT Saturday...Generally light winds are
anticipated across a majority of the coastal waters through mid
week. However, moderate to locally strong northerly winds will be
possible over the northern outer coastal waters through Sunday.
The surface pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen mid week
and will result in increasing northerly winds.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...SF Bay until 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema
AVIATION: Larry
MARINE: Larry


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