Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 261748
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1048 AM PDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will lead to a warming trend today
through at least Saturday, especially inland with afternoon
readings back into the 80s and lower 90s. A marine layer will
persist near the coast. Latest long range models suggest
seasonably warm weather to continue inland areas Sunday through
Memorial Day.

&&

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 09:16 AM PDT Thursday...Summer like pattern
over the Bay Area this morning, low clouds, patchy fog and coastal
drizzle. Bay Area profilers and sodars put the marine layer depth
near 2000-2500 ft. Additionally, there have been numerous reports
of drizzle during the morning commute. The latest forecast handles
this rather well so no short term update is needed this morning.

As mentioned previously, the burn off this morning will be earlier
than the last few days. KSFO is already reporting clear, which
did not happen the last two days. Interior locations are also
clearing out. The earlier burn off and warming airmass will lead
to warmer temperatures across the Bay Area today. Generally
speaking, highs will be in the 60s coast, 70/80s inland or about 5
to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.

Warmer weather will continue into the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 3:48 AM PDT Thursday...Main theme for
today will be to mark the beginning of a warming trend, especially
after a fairly prolonged cool spell for the inland valleys. As
skies turn sunny this afternoon expect afternoon readings back to
more seasonable levels with more widespread 70s and even some
lower 80s.

Warming trend, especially inland will continue Friday and Saturday
as 850 mb temps warm and the marine layer gets eroded under a
developing northerly wind that should show up in the hills Friday
night into Saturday morning. Temperatures are forecast to jump
significantly on Friday with inland areas well into the 80s and
lower 90s, not at all unusual for this time of year but much
warmer than the last week or so. The combination of some northerly
winds Saturday morning should lead to continued warming to start
out the holiday weekend. It looks like pool weather will arrive
just in time while typical 60s will persist along area beaches.

There could be a brief cool down Sunday with a return of some
marine air and onshore flow. However the ECMWF and GFS are now
showing another warm solution for Memorial Day with a 584 dm high
west of San Francisco with an associated thermal trough along the
coast. So looking like a warm and dry holiday weekend with nice
travel weather for the bay area and minimal fog.

Long range ECMWF for early next week looks high and dry at least
through Weds with perhaps a trough approaching by the middle of
next week to induce some inland cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:50 AM PDT Thursday...Clouds have burned-off
for most of the terminals at this hour. Rest of the day should
stay VFR with MVFR CIGS forecast to return after 06Z tonight.
Winds generally from 240 to 280 with typical afternoon seabreeze
gusts. High Confidence.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR through at least 06Z before return of MVR
conditions around 07Z. Should see break-out similar time tomorrow
or even an hour earlier. Winds becoming mostly 260 to 280 with
gusts over 20 KT from 20Z to 04Z. High confidence.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR possible through most of the period
at KMRY with more clearing expected at KSNS. Winds from 240 to 280
increasing through the day with gusts at KSTS forecast to be
around 20 KT at 20Z. Early return of stratus at both spots by 03Z
 at the latest. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...as of 10:39 AM PDT Thursday...Expect gusty northwesterly
winds across the waters through friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds into the region. The northerly winds will also result in
hazardous conditions from steep fresh swell. Winds will be
strongest in the outer waters north of point reyes.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 3 PM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: Bell
MARINE: Bell


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