Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KOKX 030835
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW TONIGHT. A COMPLEX
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY...PROVIDING
THE REGION WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE MODERATE
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY COME TO AN
END BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

THE CLOUDY RAINY CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. SOME LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET DATA FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. IN ADDITION...WILL ALSO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING OF EACH
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S...TO NEAR
50. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS USED FOR SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKY PATTERN
STARTS OFF THE PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEMS OVER THE ERN US
AND ERN PAC...WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AS IT
TRIES TO MOVE EWD WITH A SPLIT FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI AND THEN WEAKENS AS
IT CONSOLIDATES WITH A CANADIAN VORTEX OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE
CUTOFF TRACKS TO THE E COAST...WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL RIDE UP THE
ERN SEABOARD...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE SAME
IDEA...THERE ARE MAINLY TIMING...BUT SLIGHT STRENGTH ISSUES. THIS
MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THU WILL BE TOO BAD AS ONCE WAVE DEPARTS
AND THE NEXT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC
POPS BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY. THE 03/00Z EC LOOKS
MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS WITH THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING UP
THE EAST COAST ON FRI AND SHOULD HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF RAIN.

DUE TO THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCK OVER THE ATLANTIC...THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT...ALTHOUGH AN UPSTREAM KICKER DIVING OUT OF
CANADA ON SAT SHOULD HELP. SCHC POPS SAT DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT
AND THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY TRACK S OF LONG
ISLAND INTO TONIGHT.

IFR DEVELOPS AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS STEADY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN MOVE IN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AROUND
MIDDAY. FOR NOW MAINTAIN MVFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT KHPN WHERE IFR SHOULD RETURN AROUND 00Z.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT KHPN.

NOTE...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...AND THERE IS SOME
VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS CATEGORIES - RANGING FROM LIFR TO
MVFR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY
IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AT AREA TERMINALS TODAY. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...CONFIDENCE IN CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY BEYOND THOSE
INDICATED IN TAFS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NE-ENE AROUND 10 KT BY
11-13Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR LIKELY...WITH IFR IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS. NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE SEAS
BRIEFLY TOUCH 5 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF AN SCA. NE
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IF
SEAS REACH 5 FT...THEY MAY LINGER ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
OTHER THAN A LOW CHANCE OF 5 FT SEAS EARLY ON THE FAR EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

SCA POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR MARGINAL WINDS AND SEAS WED
NIGHT...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE S WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR SCA WINDS ON THE OCEAN FRI...BUT MORE LIKELY
SEAS...CONTINUING INTO SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND ONE INCH ARE
LIKELY TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS THE
NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND THE LOWER END BEING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE OF ANY MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON
ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/24
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...BC/24
HYDROLOGY...BC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.