Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 261025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
625 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

High pressure centered over eastern Canada and extending into
New England and the northeast will gradually slide east today. A
stationary front well to the southwest will approach as a warm
front tonight and move north Monday. Another frontal system
affects the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
builds to the west Wednesday and Thursday. Another low pressure
system approaches Friday.


Convergence and weak thermal forcing has resulted in a band of
light rain from western upstate New York, and across
northeastern New Jersey to western Long Island. Temperatures
were above freezing across the interior and do not expected
freezing rain Possible that some higher elevations of western
Orange county New York briefly have freezing rain with mesonet
stations reporting temperatures just above freezing.

Area of light rain was drifting to the east to northeast, so
have increased probabilities farther east into southern Connecticut
and into eastern Long Island. Also increased cloud cover across
western Connecticut and Long Island as rain band shifts to the
east. Otherwise forecast remains on track.

Surface high pressure was extending into the region from
southeastern Canada with a northeast to east flow, with a cold
air damming situation as a stationary front remains from Ohio
across West Virginia and through northern Virginia.

Otherwise with the surface and upper ridge into much of the area
keeping the eastern CWA dry until late this morning with just
slight chance probabilities and then by late this afternoon, as
the ridge weakens, will have low chance probabilities across
the CWA.


The closed and nearly cut off low that was over Missouri will
continue to open and weaken as the shortwave gets picked up by a
weak southern stream flow, and the wave moves into the eastern
ridge. There remains some timing difference with the movement of
the warm front and low tonight into Monday. Also, with weak
forcing unsure how much precipitation will occur. So have
lowered probabilities into the likely category, with the higher
chance west and north late tonight into Monday.


With the wave continuing to dampen late Monday into Monday night
with weak ridging ahead of the next shortwave, there may be a
break in the precipitation. However, with the uncertainty, and
to keep continuity have continued with slight chance
probabilities Monday night.

Yet another shortwave approaches in the weak southern stream as
this wave also dampens as wave approaches the mid Atlantic.
There are timing differences and whether or not the shortwave
will phase with a digging northern stream shortwave Tuesday.
With uncertainties will keep probabilities at low chance Tuesday
into Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be dry with high pressure building
in. Cold air advection appears to be delayed enough to the point
where highs on Wednesday end up above normal, then near-normal for
Thursday. Friday could be completely dry as well, but perhaps some
rainfall sneaks into the western zones by the end of the day. High
temps again near normal. Global models then disagree with the track
of an area of low pressure that could bring rainfall on Saturday.
Have capped PoPs at 40% for now.


High pressure will build southward across the area today with a
brief push of drier air this morning. However, daytime heating
will likely lead to the redevelopment of MVFR conditions across
the area, lowering to IFR tonight. There is low potential for
brief improvement this evening for a few hours before dark, so
subsquent TAF amendments may be needed. Conditions overnight may
fall below minimums and will need to be monitored.

N-NE winds around 10 kt will become more easterly after
daybreak, with a few gusts G15-20KT possible in the afternoon
at the coastal/NYC metro terminals.

.Sunday night...Lowering to IFR/LIFR with light rain/drizzle/fog
ahead of an approaching warm front.
.Monday...IFR/LIFR to start. Conds could improve to MVFR or VFR by
late morning or afternoon if the warm front moves through.
.Monday night-Tue night...IFR likely, LIFR possible with low
.Wednesday...VFR. NW winds G20-25KT, possibly stronger.


Winds and seas forecast on track and no changes were made at
this time.

Northeast flow strengthens today between high pressure to the
north and the cold front to the south/low pressure to the west.
Marginal SCA gusts are possible on the ocean waters through
tonight. The resultant easterly fetch should allow for ocean
seas to build to 4 to 6 ft. Winds are expected to weaken and
veer se on Monday as a warm front works into the waters...but
e/se swells will likely keep seas at SCA levels through the

Otherwise, sub-sca conditions are expected across all waters briefly
on Tuesday before gradually building through the evening in
strengthening southerly flow ahead of a low pressure approaching
from the west. Strong west-northwesterly flow with gusts to 25 kt
will develop on Wednesday as a cold front passes which will
initially allow seas to stay elevated at SCA levels before gradually
shifting east of the ocean waters. Stronger winds may persist into
Thursday before weakening by late week as high pressure briefly
builds over the area.


One quarter of an inch to one half an inch of rainfall is
possible today through Tuesday night.

No hydrologic issues are anticipated through Tuesday.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.


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