Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 021442
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING MOVING CLEAR CONDITIONS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW...SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS MORNING AND AS HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MOVES EAST
THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. NO FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG.

THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO
BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT.

INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DISSIPATED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...HAZE WILL CONITNUE ACROSS MANY OF
THE TERMINALS. FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT
OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.

S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT TODAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND WAS NEAR CALM ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AS A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6
FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT/MET



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