Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 302239
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
639 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST THIS EVENING. LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKENED
AS IT HAS MOVED EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER CONTINUE BUT
THE THREAT FOR ANY DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING HAS ENDED.

THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL STAY IN THE 80S THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH DROPPING SFC DEW POINTS
INTO THE 60S.

HAVE LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE LING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED
WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE AS A SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND
IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.

THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER ERN PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS EAST OF THE NYC AREA TERMINALS
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION MVFR TO
BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW.
SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT 2130Z
WITH MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE
CONVECTION. BEHIND THE LINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.
.TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGE WITH SCA HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. THE SCA FOR THE
BAYS AND E LI SOUND WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO SUB-
SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE CT AND
EASTERN LI WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS



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