Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 270606
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
106 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the mid Atlantic Coast will bring milder
weather on Monday, but then unsettled weather for Tuesday and
Wednesday. A strong cold frontal passage Wednesday evening
returns cold, but seasonable weather for the end of the week,
with the chance for light snow for early Friday. It`s a dry
weekend and warming up on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Clear skies overnight. Winds taking a little longer to diminish
and back SW as the high builds in.

Lows in the 20s with 30s in the NY Metro--still a few degrees
above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
With the high having moved off the coast - that sets up the
start of a prolonged warm advection period. Clouds increase
through the day and it`s mostly cloudy in the afternoon - this
keeps temps in the lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NWP appears fairly clustered and consistent with the overall
pattern, but not without lots of local forecast problems this
week.

1. Tuesday - Wednesday. WAA advection pattern will likely bring
light RA by late AFTN TUE there persists on and off into WED
AFTN. We have likely POPs, but expect these to go to categorical
as timing of PCPN becomes clearer.

There`s lots of spread in the temperature guidance for Tuesday
and have gone with the cooler side (GFS) due to the onset of
PCPN and the extensive cloud cover. That being said, Temps
should get well into the 60s by WED away from the coast - of
course with a strong gradient at the coast. Advection fog also
becomes a forecast problem and can see repeat of a few days ago.

2. Wednesday AFTN/EVE. Instability is once again present along
with very strong shear in excess of 60 KT. LI`s of -2 C and
Total Totals in the lower 50s are not to be ignored this time
of year as we saw Saturday night. Thus have included TS in the
forecast. No enhanced wording, but that may come as we get
closer.

3. Thursday. Windy with steady or slowly falling temps. Think
40 mph should do it for the winds, but we could get close to
wind advisory criteria.

4. Friday. Clipper system passes the region. Looking at the
GEFS suggest much of the energy passes across up State and
across New England. Thus, keeping just a 30 POP for light snow.
The operation GFS is on the higher end of the QPF across the
OKX Forecast area.

On the other hand, the Operational ECMWF is south of the area.

Temps are FCST slight below normal for Saturday, but rebound to
the lower 50s for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period as high pressure off the Mid Atlantic
coast moves east. High confidence in WSW flow less than 10 kt
becoming SW and then increasing to 10-15G20KT by late morning
and into the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Late Monday night...VFR.
.Tuesday...Chance of light rain/MVFR conds.
.Tuesday night-Wednesday morning...Areas of fog with light rain
continuing. MVFR/IFR and possibly lower. LLWS possible with SW
winds 45-55 kt at 2kft. SW winds G15-20KT Wednesday morning.
.Wednesday afternoon-Wednesday night...Showers and a chance of
thunderstorms. MVFR or lower possible. SW winds G20-30KT. Winds
become westerly late Wednesday night.
.Thursday...VFR. W-WNW winds G20-25KT.
.Friday...MVFR/IFR possible with a chance of light snow. WNW
winds G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conds continue on the ocean this evening, but should subside
by midnight W of Fire Island Inlet. Sea throughout should fall
below 5 ft later tonight, but then return to the ocean E of Fire
Island Inlet Mon afternoon/night via SW flow increasing to
15-20 kt on Mon.

For the rest of the forecast, Tuesday will have increasing
southerly flow but will still be below SCA levels. The region
will be in between the high pressure well offshore and a low
pressure area moving into the Midwest. The pressure gradient
gradually tightens through midweek with a strong cold front
eventually approaching from the west. The resulting increasing
SW flow will build seas to SCA range beginning Tuesday night and
continuing through midweek. Ahead and just behind the cold
front will be potentially the highest of winds, when gales will
be possible for the eastern waters and the ocean Wednesday
through Wednesday evening with otherwise SCA winds for all
waters. After this cold front moves across Wednesday night,
there will be gusty NW flow and cold air advection. The ocean
will likely remain at SCA levels through the rest of the marine
forecast period through Friday. SCA level winds will persist
Wednesday night through Thursday and come to a brief lull below
SCA Thursday night before returning to around SCA levels Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No Hydrologic Impacts are anticipated over the next 7 days.
Rainfall in the Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday evening should
average around 0.5" with local amounts up to 1 inch.

Release from spring snow melt is occurring down the Connecticut
and Housatonic Rivers.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/Tongue
NEAR TERM...Goodman/Tongue
SHORT TERM...Tongue
LONG TERM...Tongue
AVIATION...JE/Goodman
MARINE...Goodman/JM
HYDROLOGY...Tongue


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