Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 262342
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
342 PM PST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous low pressure system will produce widespread
accumulating snow Saturday into Sunday. The heaviest snow
amounts will likely occur over the Idaho Panhandle where amounts
of 6 to 12 inches will be a good bet but far eastern washington
and the Cascades will also receive significant accumulating snow.
Bitterly cold northeast winds will develop by Monday morning.
Temperatures will be well below average most of next week as
arctic high pressure settles over the Inland Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE
MUCH OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND...

Tonight through Saturday night: Satellite imagery shows a
vigorous shortwave trough of lower pressure pushing into northern
BC. This disturbance will dive south along the BC coastline over
the next 24 hours. Increasing moist isentropic accent on Saturday
morning will result in widespread precip across the eastern two-
thirds of the forecast area and along the Cascade crest.
Precipitation intensity will start out light early Saturday, but
will increase in intensity through the afternoon into Saturday
night. This will be due to strong dynamical forcing aloft with the
region under a moderate strong 120 kt upper level jet streak and
strong positive vorticity advection at upper levels. This forcing
aloft will also result in cyclogenesis at the surface with an area
of low pressure tracking across northwest WA through eastern WA
and across the central Idaho Panhandle. This will result in good
level forcing along the occluded front and along the backside of
the low as moisture wraps around into the region. The good news is
that models have been more consistent showing a fairly progressive
passage of the low pressure system. Even so, westerly to
northwesterly flow will result in good orographics across the
Palouse and into the ID Panhandle. A tightening pressure gradient
is also expected to result in increasing winds, especially across
the Palouse and over the higher terrain over the Cascades and the
southeast portion of the forecast area.

* Snow Levels: Valley floors. The exceptions will be in the
  southern portions of the Upper Columbia Basin and in the L-C
  Valley. These areas will start out with rain Saturday afternoon
  but will transition over to snow Saturday night, especially the
  L-C Valley.

* Snow Amounts: For the 24 hour period from Saturday through
  Saturday night, we are generally looking at 2 to 5 inches from
  the Upper Columbia Basin to the Spokane Area and across the
  Okanogan Highlands over to the NE Mtns. Higher amounts are
  anticipated over the ID Panhandle with 4 to 10 inches possible
  in the valleys and closer to 7 to 12 inches in the mountains.
  The Palouse is also expected to see the potential for heavy snow
  with primarily along the highway 195 corridor and points
  eastward. Heavy snow is also anticipated for the Cascade crest,
  NE Blue Mtns and on the Camas Prairie.

* Winds: Breezy Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Strongest
  winds at lower elevations will be across the Palouse and on the
  Camas Prairie. Expect sustained wind speeds of 15 to 20 mph with
  gusts as strong as 30 mph. Gusts will be as strong as 40 to 50
  along ridge tops in the Cascades, NE Blue Mtns, Central
  Panhandle Mtns and on the Camas Prairie.

* Hazards: The Winter Storm Watches in the ID Panhandle will be
  upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings for heavy snowfall. We are
  also including a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow across the
  eastern portion of the WA Palouse, Northeast Blue Mtns and the
  Camas Prairie. A Winter Weather Advisory is being issued for the
  East Slopes of the Cascades to highlight the potential for heavy
  snow at the Crest. Main concern with the storm system will be
  for snow covered roads that will make travel treacherous. Winds
  are also expected to result in areas of blowing snow across the
  highway 195 corridor and highway 95 corridor on the Palouse.
  This could result in drifting snow and poor visibility down to a
  1/4 mile at times. Heavy snow is expected along I-90 between the
  Spokane Area to Lookout Pass and over Stevens Pass. /SVH

Sunday through Monday...The organized winter storm system passing
through on saturday and saturday night will be moving off to the
southeast into central Idaho Sunday morning. However...a dense
area of residual accumulating snow showers will continue to
harass the Palouse and points south...in particular the Camas
Prairie and the Blue mountains. In the wake of the main storm
system an unstable but colder air mass will exist over the region
in the cusp of a broad upper level trough settling into the
region. On Sunday and through Monday no location will be safe from
further light accumulation random snow showers...and in fact the
latest models agree on dropping a second short wave disturbance
into the forecast area from the north Sunday night and
Monday...with this next wave potentially impacting the deep basin
and Cascades east slopes with a further general 1 to 3 inches of
snow. This second wave will not be as organized or moist as
Saturday`s system and no further winter highlights beyond the
current suite are expected...although the Camas Prairie is under
serious threat of further heavy snow that may necessitate
extending the current warning further into Sunday evening.

The second serious weather issue during this period concerns the
potential for breezy and gusty north and northeast winds
developing across the region as the passing upper level trough
draws a shot of modified arctic air into the region from the
north...promoting areas of blowing and drifting fresh snow
particularly in the Purcell trench and the northeast basin
including northern Whitman county along the highway 195 corridor.
Also these winds will create very raw and brisk conditions with
wind chills reaching dangerous levels on exposed locations Monday.
/Fugazzi

Monday night through Friday...Flop-over ridge with axis placement
to the west continues a cold dry northerly flow for most of this
forecast interval void of shortwaves until perhaps Thursday and
beyond. With the expectation there will be snow on the ground from
this weekends expected storms the forecast temperatures remain on
the very cold side of normal, especially the overnight lows, due
to expected efficient radiational cooling and advective cooling
from the cold north/northeast wind. Minor nudges to increase sky
cover and pops slightly to hint that a disturbance or two may drop
down in the northwest flow and bring us more snow perhaps late
Thursday and on through Friday remain but confidence not too high
this far out in the extended. /Pelatti


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stubborn stratus and fog will linger over or very near
the KGEG TAF site through this evening...and persist at the KSFF
and KCOE TAF sites through the night under a strong low level
inversion. Stratus may form in the deep Columbia Basin at KMWH and
KEAT after 06Z as well but this potential is low confidence. A
winter storm descending from British Columbia will spread light
snow over the eastern TAf sites after 15Z saturday and persist
through 00Z Sunday with IFR conditions common for the eastern TAF
sites. KMWH and KEAT will be on the edge of the precipitation
shield for the potential for MVFR or brief IFR conditions in
occasional snow. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        26  32  27  31  19  22 /  20 100 100  50  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  27  31  28  31  19  20 /  20 100 100  60  20  10
Pullman        25  33  28  30  16  23 /  10 100 100  80  50  10
Lewiston       27  37  31  36  24  28 /  10  50 100  60  50  10
Colville       25  32  24  32  20  24 /  30 100  60  40  30  10
Sandpoint      26  31  27  31  19  21 /  30 100 100  60  20  10
Kellogg        22  30  26  30  15  17 /  20 100 100  80  40  20
Moses Lake     27  36  27  36  25  29 /  10  30  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      30  39  28  35  26  30 /  10  20  10  10  60  30
Omak           24  30  25  30  21  25 /  10  20  10  20  40  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 4 PM PST Sunday for
     Central Panhandle Mountains.

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 4 PM PST Sunday for
     Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.

     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM PST Sunday for
     Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday
     for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands.

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 4 PM PST Sunday for
     Northeast Blue Mountains.

     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM PST Sunday for
     Northeast Mountains-Washington Palouse.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM PST Sunday
     for Spokane Area.

&&

$$



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