Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 280310
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
810 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms decrease through sunset
Wednesday night, but the threat returns for the afternoon hours
on Thursday and Friday. However they will be more focused around
the mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs
in the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers
and thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance
of showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: the shower and thunderstorm threat is largely on
the wane. However there disturbances continue to pivot around the
exiting upper low. WV imagery shows the center of that exiting low
around eastern Idaho county (in lower panhandle of Idaho) this
hour. However disturbance rounding the backside of that low will
continue to provide some shower threat through the night. One wave
is dropping across southeast WA now. Another couple wave are
pushing toward the US/BC border. These latter two waves and at
least some indication of elevated instability through the night,
as well as trends on the HRRR suggest keeping some shower threat
going through the night across the northern mountains,
Spokane/C`dA area and Panhandle mountains. Though after 09Z-10Z
(2-3 AM) this threat may be on the wane as the waves leave the
main pool of potential elevated instability. Either way, I
continued the threat of showers going into the overnight the
aforementioned locations. I`m not as confident that there could be
any nocturnal thunder mixed in, so I left it out.

The remainder of the forecast looks generally on track. Only minor
tweaks to the Thursday afternoon/evening shower chances. With the
flow turning from northwest to westerly through tonight into
tomorrow this should help hold the main shower chances in the
mountains and closer to the WA/ID border eastward, leaving much of
the Basin dry. Yet there is still enough to say there is some
threat in the Spokane area into the higher Palouse, again with the
best chance closer to the Idaho border. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Isold to sct -shra/-tsra will be possible across much
of the region, with the best chance before 03Z. Thereafter the
main threat will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. There
may be some lingering showers chances into the early overnight
between MWH, GEG, SFF, COE with the potential for the left over
showers over the northern mountains to drift south, before
abating but confidence is low.  The threat of showers/t-storms
will be renewed Thursday afternoon, with the main chances closer
to the mountains/ID border, including near EAT, COE, PUW, LWS and
maybe SFF. Brief heavy rain, gusty/erratic winds and small hail
are possible, along with isolated lightning strikes. There will
also be a small window where patchy fog is possible, between 11Z
and 16Z around SFF/COE and perhaps LWS. Confidence leans toward
this not being much of issue and if any develops it should be
shallow and short-lived. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  79  57  82  59  85 /  20  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  78  54  82  56  83 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Pullman        46  75  52  82  56  83 /  20  20  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       52  83  58  88  63  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       53  82  54  83  54  86 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  81  52  80 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        47  76  49  81  53  81 /  20  40  40  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  86  58  90  59  92 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      59  86  64  89  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           51  86  56  87  54  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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