Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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791
FXUS64 KOUN 301208
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
708 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Some very patchy BR will impact PNC for a couple of hours this
morning. Otherwise, expect VFR to apply for the rest of the
forecast period under mostly clear skies. Winds will remain light
and become south to southeasterly later this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A surface ridge axis remains in place this morning, with dewpoints
in the 40s and 50s. This ridge will slowly shift eastward today
along and east of I35 as a lee surface low develops/deepens over
SE CO this afternoon. Expect afternoon temps to only be 1-2
degrees warmer than yesterday for most locations. Both high and
low temps will slowly warm through this weekend and some low PoPs
remain in the forecast for Sat night/Sun morning across NW OK as
a subtle mid level shortwave trough moves atop the ridge.

Tuesday still appears to be the most active weather day through
the forecast period. A deep upper low is expected to be somewhere
over the central Rockies by Tue morning, with low level moisture
return beginning ahead of it through Mon. A dryline will likely
sharpen during the afternoon Tue across western OK/eastern TX
panhandle as the upper trough approaches. Increasing flow through
the layer will continue to result in low level moisture transport
at the surface and increasing deep layer shear. However,
instability is still questionable and the timing of the long wave
trough is certainly not guaranteed. Regardless, considering the
depth of the wave and sufficient moisture in place will keep a
narrow axis of high PoPs in the forecast with the highest chances
expected north of I40 where forcing will likely be the greatest.
Strong to severe storms will be possible considering the
aforementioned.

After the trough axis passes, a cold front will pass overhead Wed,
although the GFS is far less aggressive compared to the ECMWF. For
now, kept temperatures right around or a couple of degrees below
normal for days 6 and 7 but these could drop significantly
depending on the progression and depth of the long wave trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  55  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         75  55  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  56  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           76  54  81  56 /   0   0  10  20
Ponca City OK     75  50  78  55 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         79  54  82  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/03/03



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