Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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297
FXUS64 KOUN 262000
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
300 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front/wind shift has moved across roughly the northwest
half of Oklahoma and western north Texas today. Ahead of the
front, hot and muggy conditions are occurring across south central
and southeast Oklahoma. Most model soundings suggest that a cap
will prevent thunderstorms from developing across this area during
the afternoon/evening. Several runs of the HRRR show a few storms
developing across southeast Colorado by late afternoon. There is
a low chance that a storm or two may enter/skirt northwest/northern
Oklahoma by mid to late evening.

More impactful weather is expected to develop on Saturday, mainly
from the late afternoon through the overnight hours.  The primary
focus for storms will be a dryline and cold front with some upper
support from an approaching trough. The HRRR model develops a few
storms near a dryline in south central/southeast Oklahoma during
the late afternoon. A more likely solution will be for storms to
develop along a cold front during the early to mid evening hours
after near surface winds have backed by early evening. Based on
frontal timing, a few storms may initially develop near
Chandler/OKC with additional storms developing along the front
during the evening and overnight. Perhaps the best storm coverage
will be across south central and southeast Oklahoma.

After the front clears the area early Sunday, rain and storms
chances will be rather low for the remainder to the holiday
weekend. Rain and storm chances will increase by Wednesday of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  94  64  80 /   0  10  30  10
Hobart OK         66  98  64  82 /   0  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  71 101  67  82 /   0  10  20  10
Gage OK           64  87  56  79 /  20  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     67  90  62  81 /  10  10  20   0
Durant OK         75  92  70  80 /  10  20  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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