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000
FXUS64 KOUN 011127
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
527 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME UNTIL 021200. LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE INTERMITTENT IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
OKLAHOMA UNTIL MID-DAY TODAY. WARM AND MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN
BRING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY MONDAY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES IN MOST OF THESE AREAS AND THE
ADVECTION PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN UNTIL
A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED ADVISORY FOR NW
OK WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM AFTER A LOW RISK FOR SOME SLEET PASSES TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE COLD SURFACE LAYER WILL HOLD THROUGH MONDAY AND
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WEAK TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD AIRMASS. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR
SOMETIMES LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL THIS PATTER ERODES ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING. ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH, ANY
DRIZZLE WOULD FREEZE AT NIGHT. TUESDAY BRINGS A BIG CHANGE WITH
MODELS INDICATING A RAPID REMOVAL OF THE COLD AIR FROM SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF AND GFS AND SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS IS THAT
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-DAY TUESDAY AND
BRING QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF OKLAHOMA
CITY. A CHANCE OF SNOW, AND POSSIBLY SLEET COME EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FAST-MOVING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
PREVAILING WINDS. PRESENTLY,THERE ARE LIKELY POPS FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEATHER
AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  27  39  38 /  30  10  30  50
HOBART OK         35  26  39  37 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  31  41  40 /  30  30  40  50
GAGE OK           31  22  39  35 /  30  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     33  21  38  35 /  20  10  20  50
DURANT OK         40  33  43  41 /  40  40  40  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ013-
     018>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     OKZ004>012-014>017-021-022-033-034.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/09/09