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000
FXUS64 KOUN 071752
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AT ALL SITES THROUGH 06Z.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD...ARRIVE NEAR
KSPS AND KLAW 20-22Z...KOKC AND KOUN 20-24Z...THEN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY 06Z. THESE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO IFR 03-09Z.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AFTER 15Z.

THERE COULD BE -SN/-PL/-FZDZ NEARLY ANYWHERE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT DUE TO LOW COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE...DID NOT
MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT ALL SITES
BY 10Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WITH CLOUDS ALREADY
MOVING INTO THE AREA... HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...
ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST PRECIP THE PAST
TWO DAYS. KEPT TEMPS WARMER OVER NORTHERN OK WHERE THE CLOUDS
HAVE NOT MOVED IN YET. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

AVIATION... LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER DURING THE DAY BECOMING MVFR BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR LATER TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
POSSIBLE...ESP NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...
VERY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS COULD
APPROACH RECORD LOWS AT OKC AND SPS...ESP IF WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AND HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON
TAP FOR TODAY WITH COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND CLOUDS
INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS ISENT LIFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN SPREAD NEWD OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE WITH STRENGTHENING ISENT LIFT. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHORT DURATION
OF THE EVENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED TEMP PROFILES MAINLY BELOW
FREEZING ALTHOUGH A WARM NOSE DOES BEGIN DEVELOPING IN SRN AREAS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TYPE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ALTHOUGH
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PRECIP THREAT SHOULD
END BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS SYSTEM ZIPS OFF TO THE NE.

A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL SHOWING ANY PRECIP ATTM WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL LEAVE DRY
FOR NOW...BUT THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW...MAINLY IN NRN OK.

TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE MID TO LATE WEEK AS UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT A BIT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY EAST LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH SRN BRANCH S/W TROUGH APCHG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  18  18  31  15 /  20  40  10  10
HOBART OK         16  14  35  14 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  19  16  35  19 /  20  20  10  10
GAGE OK           21  12  34  10 /  20  30  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     21  18  29  13 /  20  50  10  10
DURANT OK         21  21  32  21 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17