


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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932 FXUS64 KOUN 182317 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 617 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 613 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Hot and humid conditions expected this weekend into next week. - Rain chances will be near zero through the middle of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 An MCV, which is progressing east-northeastward along the northwest periphery of the upper ridge, was quite prominent on visible satellite and radar imagery this morning over the Texas panhandle. There have been a few light showers associated with this MCV over northwest Oklahoma. While most model guidance is void of QPF for today, the 12Z runs of the NSSL MPAS models do show localized rainfall amounts up to 1 inch today as a result of this MCV (mainly the northern tier of counties). Rain potential could be mitigated with the drier air mixing into the area and track of the MCV. Thunderstorm and heavier rainfall potential should remain to our north. However, we would not be surprised if far northern Oklahoma saw isolated showers/thunder. Afternoon high temperatures will be roughly 5 to 10 degrees higher than yesterday. Recent observational trends have shown higher dewpoint temperatures than previously forecast over parts of northern, east-central, and southeastern Oklahoma. A Heat Advisory has been issued until 7PM for parts of southeastern Oklahoma, where several hours of 100 to 105 degree heat index values are expected. While heat index values are nearing criteria levels over parts of north-central Oklahoma, the duration should be shorter with drier air expected to lower these within the next hour or two. Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 The heat intensifies over our area this weekend, with high temperatures in the upper 90`s to over 100 degrees, and sunny skies. While dewpoint temperatures decrease some tomorrow, heat index values could reach criteria level tomorrow over north-central and southeastern Oklahoma. A Heat Advisory is more likely on Sunday with an uptick in low- level moisture. A lee-side surface trough will maintain breezy southerly winds with gusts to 25 mph possible both days. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 The upper ridge dominates the synoptic pattern for the southern and southeastern CONUS. Breezy southerly winds and dry conditions persist through the long term with high temperatures rising to slightly above-average. Thompson && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Winds are expected to diminish across most of the area tonight, though northwest Oklahoma will likely remain breezy. Southerly winds become gusty during the day tomorrow. VFR conditions will prevail. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 74 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 74 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 73 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 74 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 74 97 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 74 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ032-042-043-047- 048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...01 SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...14