Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 251338
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
838 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will fall through the day as wind increases behind
a cold front. Temperatures will be back to near seasonal
averages by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold front has nearly completed it`s passage through the
forecast area this morning, nearing Latrobe and DuBois PA.
Heavier rain showers just ahead of the front will push east and
out of the area by 11am. Winds are increasing behind the front,
but the stronger gusts remain over western Ohio at this hour.
These are associated with the strongest cold air advection.
Expecting wind gusts to increase through the day, especially in
the high elevations this evening and overnight. At this point,
wind should remain just below Advisory criteria, but this will
be monitored through the day.

First images of visible satellite confirm the existence of a
clear dry slot over central Ohio. While this will fill in some
through midday, it should provide a quick shot of clear skies
for eastern Ohio zones. Further upstream, a solid patch of
clouds and scattered showers can be found over western Ohio and
Indiana. These will shift eastward encroaching our western zones
this afternoon as the upper-level low approaches. Expecting shower
chances to increase this afternoon and evening, as per latest
hi-res model guidance.

Scattered rain showers will changeover to snow showers as
temperatures continue to descend through the day. In general,
less than an inch is expected across northern counties and into
the mountains. Little to no accumulation is expected elsewhere.
Building high pressure will end precipitation chances overnight
with the ridges and locations along and north of I-80 the last
holdouts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures should moderate Sunday to near normal values and
cloud coverage will diminish as high pressure continues to build
and lower levels dry out.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Minimal change made in the extended with broad southwesterly
flow aloft progged through midweek. A weak disturbance may
result in scattered light showers Monday afternoon, but better
chances will follow midweek and again on Friday after a brief
break with deeper moisture and multiple shortwaves cross the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and areas of MVFR conditions are expected this morning
as a cold front crosses the area. Wind will veer to the W in
the wake of the front this morning. Sfc gusts of 25 to 30kt will
again be possible as MVFR stratocu and a few showers linger
through the rest of the morning as an upper trough approaches.

Enough mixing is expected to raise ceilings to VFR during the
afternoon, though a reduction back to MVFR is expected N of I 80
this evening as the upper trough crosses and with WNW flow off
the lakes results in scattered snow showers.

.OUTLOOK...
Occasional restrictions are again possible as the unsettled
weather pattern is maintained for the first half of the week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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