Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282210
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
610 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS WL FALL BLO THE SEASONAL AVGS TONIGHT AS DRY HIGH PRES
SLIDES OVR THE REGION. THE COOL MRNG LOWS WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO
BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS...BUT WITH DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE
RIDGE AND NRN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT...IN ADVN OF NRN PLNS TO UPR MS VALLEY
TROF...WL ENSURE PCPN FREE CONDITIONS...BUT WITH WARMING TEMPS
INTO SATURDAY.

DVLPG SW FLOW AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE EWD ADVN OF THAT
TROF IS FORECAST TO INCRS MSTR AND PCPN CHCS BY SATURDAY
AFTN...AND CUMULATE IN LIKELY POPS WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROF AXIS
ON SUNDAY.

WARM TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PD WERE PROGGED USING A BLEND
OF ALREADY CLOSE BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SVRL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WL KEEP OCNL SHWR
AND TSTM CHCS THRU MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PD. THE BEST CHC FOR
PCPN WL BE WITH STRONGER WAVE TWD MID WK. TEMPS SHOULD AVG SVRL
DEG ABV THE SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND
LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS DURING THE PRE DAWN...AND THAT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
SITES CLOSEST TO THE RIVERS.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND
RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

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