Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171958
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
258 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH SNOW
SHOWERS NOW CONFINED TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR. AS 850MB TEMPS FALL
TONIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EXPECTED TO BRING AN
INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE LOW INVERSION HEIGHT AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP REMAINDER OF THE REGION MAINLY PRECIP
FREE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
THURSDAY BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW INVERSIONS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISE IN CLD BASES AT SRN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR
REDVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD REINFORCING
SHRTWV THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS
ON SATURDAY IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









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