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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191728
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THROUGH THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE MENTION OF A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE NEARLY
EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SE FLOW CONTINUES TO HOLD FOG AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS GARRETT
COUNTY. TEMPS OVER WRN MD ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S...WHILE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE BROUGHT MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE 70S.
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER SRLY TNGT WHICH WILL SLOWLY EAT AWAY AT
UPSLOPE CLOUDS. ONE GOOD THING FROM THE CLOUDS IS ATMS NOT
SUPPORTIVE FOR RW/TRW DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN MD.

ISOLD STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDES OVER
EASTERN OHIO AND NRN WV. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS
FROM 2G4 - IDI - DUJ. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS IN
THE MORNING.

H5 RIDGE AXIS MOVES ATOP THE REGION MON SUPPORTING STABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LFCS AROUND 10KFT AND CRITICAL TSTM TEMPERATURE
THRESHOLDS INTO THE 90S. REMOVED POPS FOR A LARGE PART OF THE
LOWLANDS...STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE TERRAIN TO WARRANT SCHC
MENTION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.

TEMPS WERE DERIVED FROM NAM12 BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE WHERE
RAIN OCCURS THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.A COLD FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND `
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS WILL TEETER ON MVFR/VFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR CIGS AND LIGHT SE WINDS. FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS
SEVERAL TERMINALS. THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE. RAN
WITH IFR AT DUJ AND FKL...OTHERWISE BROUGHT CIGS TO MVFR AT MOST
THEN LIFT THEM BY 14Z. ONCE ANY STRATUS LIFTS LOOK FOR VFR WX.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF IFR WEATHER WILL BE WED AND THU IN
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...98