Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 240521 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
121 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

A period of above-normal temperature and increasing chances for
rain is expected through early next week.


Only minor changes to the overnight period. Adjusted PoPs in
line with the latest radar/satellite trends and latest hires
guidance. Did the same with cloud cover and temperatures were
modified toward new guidance.

Rain showers will end quickly this morning, as the shortwave
riding along a warm front rushes toward the east. Rising upper
level heights will follow the exiting wave and push the
aforementioned front well to the north. By late morning, the
area will be well into the ever expanding warm sector,
stabilizing the atmosphere, and keeping the rest of the day
dry. Southwest wind and strong warm advection will support
temperatures above average, despite mostly cloudy skies.


A series of compact shortwave troughs will develop in the swrn
CONUS and eject newd beginning Saturday. As the first wave
acquires a negative tilt, shortwave ridging will amplify over
the Great Lakes region, leading to a likely-nwd displacement of
precipitation on Saturday and Saturday night.

Steady height falls will begin to spread across the region
Sunday morning as the ejecting wave nears. By afternoon, the
associated H5 jet maximum will cross the forecast area, likely
invigorating deeper convection with its passage amid modest


In the wake of the Sunday wave, a brief respite can be expected
on Monday amid shortwave ridging before a second trough ejects
from the Plains. This second wave will be favorable for
widespread rain showers as it crosses on Tuesday as warm, moist
air is drawn poleward ahead of the system.

Behind the wave, seasonable air is expected to arrive mid-week.


General VFR will be marred this morning by light rain and
possibly MVFR at FKL and DUJ as a crossing disturbance interacts
with a warm front. An associated llvl jet is expected to support
a brief period of llvl wind shear.

FKL and DUJ may experience MVFR cigs later today as moisture
pools near the frontal boundary, eventual position of which
remains questionable.

The next chance for widespread restrictions is not expected
until the approach of low pressure early on Sunday.




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