Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 252343 CCA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...TYPO CORRECTION LAST PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
837 AM CHST SAT JUL 26 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE
MARIANAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS WILL BE A WET WEEKEND FOR THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST MADE EXCEPT FOR EXTENDING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY. ALL MODELS SEEM TO INITIALIZE
WELL IN TERMS OF POSITIONING THE CIRCULATION NEAR PALAU AND THE
MONSOON TROUGH LOCATION. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

AN INTERESTING SOLUTION IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH ALL THE
MODELS. EVEN OBSCURE MODELS FROM KOREA...TAIWAN AND AUSTRALIA LET
ALONE THE USUAL GFS...ECMWF AND NAVGEM. THERE IS A CIRCULATION
NORTH OF KOSRAE THIS MORNING. THESE MODELS DO SEE IT AND TO A
VARYING DEGREE DEVELOP IT AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE MARIANAS. WITH
THIS AGREEMENT IT IS GETTING MORE LIKELY THAT SOMETHING WILL MOVE
OUR WAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHAT WILL IT LOOK LIKE WHEN IT GETS
HERE. GFS GOES BONKERS WITH IT MAKING IT A TYPHOON OVER THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS. THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT DO THIS MAKING IT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT BEST. NAVGEM HAS AN INTERESTING SOLUTION
IN THAT THE BIG CIRCULATION NEAR PALAU WILL ONLY HAVE A FEW DAYS
OF GLORY. BY TUESDAY THE MONSOON STARTS FLOWING INTO THE KOSRAE
CIRCULATION LEAVING THE OTHER ONE WEAK. NAVGEM ONLY MAKES IT
STRONGER AFTER IT PASSES WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

NOT CERTAIN ABOUT THE PARTICULARS SO FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH BUT THINGS COULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE IF THE KOSRAE
CIRCULATION PICKS UP STEAM. EVEN IF THE KOSRAE CIRCULATION DOES
NOT BECOME STRONG IN TERMS OF WIND IT WILL PROBABLY PUSH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IF THINGS DO NOT CHANGE IN THE
MODELS...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST AND AN EAST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST.
THE EAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A FOOT BY TONIGHT. THE
WEST SWELL IS AT THREE FEET TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SIX FEET SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ON WEST FACING REEFS AT THAT TIME.
THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PALAU CIRCULATION AS IT TREKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE SEA. IT
STILL IS NOT CERTAIN WHAT KIND OF WIND FIELD WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CIRCULATION SO FETCH GENERATION AREAS ARE UNKNOWN. IF
THE KOSRAE CIRCULATION SAPS THIS CIRCULATION AS MENTIONED ABOVE
THEN THINGS COULD CHANGE. THE BEST THING TO DO IS KEEP WATCHING
THE FORECAST AS IT MOST LIKELY WILL CHANGE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN MICRONESIA. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE
FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO SO INCORPORATED SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER INTO
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED DRYING TREND FOR
KOSRAE AND MAJURO TONIGHT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS AND KOSRAE STATE. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED CIRCULATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
WILL AFFECTING POHNPEI TODAY. FORECAST FOR POHNPEI IS HEAVILY
CONTINGENT ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EAST OF
POHNPEI. ECMWF IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS SOLUTION IN
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CONTINUED HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR POHNPEI. WAVE WATCH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE ALTIMETRY INDICATES A STEADY DECLINE IN
SEA HEIGHTS IN KOSRAE STATE TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE DISTURBANCE
EAST OF POHNPEI DEVELOPS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...STRONG WINDS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD GENERATE WEST SWELL WHICH
WOULD IMPACT KOSRAE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED
PRIMARILY NORTH OF CHUUK. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
FARTHER SOUTH OVER CHUUK DURING THE DAY TODAY SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE CONTINUED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF THE DISTURBANCE NEAR POHNPEI COULD MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER CHUUK THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF
CHUUK ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W REMAINS EAST OF KOROR
BUT MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE FOUND WEST OF KOROR WATERS.
SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AT KOROR AND
YAP TODAY AND TONIGHT. RIDGING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF 96W AS IT MOVES NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
USHER IN DRIER WEATHER FOR KOROR AND YAP A LITTLE SOONER THAN
EXPECTED PREVIOUSLY.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM INVEST 96W WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SWELL
GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR YAP AND KOROR AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SWELL GENERATED BY A RECENT MONSOON SURGE AND 96W WILL KEEP
SURF HAZARDOUS ON CHUUK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS






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