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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 180801
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
601 PM CHST SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR INDICATES PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES WITHIN THE
MARIANAS MARINE ZONES. VISIBLE...IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW DEEP-LAYER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE
MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PLAYERS
IN SIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS FURTHER INDICATE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE MARIANAS THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE ABOUT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. SURF
ON EAST FACING REEFS WILL BE 5 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT. THE SWELL WILL
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AND THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BECOME LOW.
COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MICRONESIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OVER THE MARSHALLS. WHILE SHOWERS
HAVE DECREASED AT MAJURO THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THEM TO RETURN LATER
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVERGENCE
WILL MOVE OVER KOSRAE SUNDAY.

ALL MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING THE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WHILE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER KOSRAE AND MAJURO THROUGH
THE FORECAST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PALAU AND YAP TODAY. ACTIVITY DECREASED
OVER YAP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
WEST OF PALAU...EXPECT ENOUGH TO REMAIN CLOSE TO PALAU SO AS TO KEEP
SHOWERS SCATTERED THROUGH MUCH OF NIGHT THERE. MODELS SUGGEST
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER YAP. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED
SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ISLAND SO BROUGHT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT THERE.

TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CHUUK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
THERE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS KEEP THINGS QUIET THE FIRST
HALF OF THE COMING WEEK FOR WESTERN MICRONESIA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/ZIOBRO