Area Forecast Discussion
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690
FXPQ60 PGUM 190902
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
701 PM ChST Sat Aug 19 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...Southeast winds and isolated showers and
thunderstorms prevail over the Marianas this afternoon.

&&

.Discussion...
On the surface analysis this afternoon a surface trough could be
found near Guam. This trough will progress northwest and produce
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight. Lingering
moisture and a approaching upper-level low will keep skies mostly
cloudy and produce isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday.
Another surface trough in combination with the upper low will bring a
chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday
morning.

&&

.Marine...
Observations this afternoon from Ritidian, Tanapag, and Ipan buoys
indicate combined sea heights of 2 to 3 feet. Expect no change in
sea height the next few days.

An east swell will be present through the forecast. Surf will be 3 to
5 feet on east facing reefs and 2 to 4 feet on north facing reefs.
Surf on west and south will be 3 feet at best. Little will change
through the weekend and the rip current risk will remain low.

&&


.Eastern Micronesia...
A near-equatorial trough curves eastward across Kosrae and Majuro
from a weak disturbance southwest of Pohnpei. Numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms are across Chuuk and Pohnpei states while only
isolated showers are near Kosrae and Majuro. Models still show this
trough slowly lifting northward and weakening the next couple days.
This will keep showery and unsettled weather in place another day or
two with light and at times, variable, winds. A relatively drier
trade-wind pattern is expected by midweek.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Moist south to southwest flow continues across Palau and Yap.
Satellite imagery shows much of the widespread showers and
thunderstorms are north of Yap and Koror.  However, scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are seen within the Yap and Koror coastal
waters this afternoon. Weak ridging will wedge westward
Sunday and Monday, but low-level convergence will maintain isolated
showers and thunderstorms a few more days. A weak disturbance near
Chuuk will approach early in the week bringing gentle trades to the
region.


&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Ziobro/M. Aydlett



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