Area Forecast Discussion
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
328 PM ChST Fri Aug 26 2016

.Synopsis...
Except for isolated locally heavy island showers over Guam...it`s
been another quiet day, with light south winds, combined seas near
4 feet and virtually no showers.

&&

.Discussion...
Little change to the previous forecast, except to add the slight
chance of afternoon thunder for Guam on Sunday. The models keep
the monsoon action well north of the region with dry weather here
for the next week or so...rather dry for late August.

&&

.Marine...
Seas have bottomed out at 3-5 feet, and will soon build again as
NW swell from a slow-moving Typhoon Lionrock 1100 miles NW of the
islands invades the Marianas waters. High surf is a good
possibility along west and north facing shores by late Sunday.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen just east of
Pohnpei and across Kosrae and parts of the Marshall Islands near a
surface trough passing Kosrae. The trough will continue westward the
next few days and will bring increasing showers to Pohnpei tonight
and Chuuk Saturday night. Trade-wind convergence near Majuro will
keep skies mostly cloudy there the next couple of days. Both GFS and
ECMWF show another trough passing through the area early next week
that will bring isolated thunderstorms to much of the area on Sunday
and Monday.

Wave models show some long-period northwest swell reaching the
region later next week from distant Typhoon Lionrock. For now, surf
is expected to stay below hazardous levels through the early part of
the week, but surf could increase to near hazardous levels around
midweek.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Little has changed across Yap and Palau as a low-level ridge remains
in place. Winds have weakened and allowed some island convection at
Koror. Strong wind shear prevented thunderstorms from developing
today. Dry pattern and light winds will persist through the weekend.
Have kept slight chance of island thunderstorms in the afternoon for
tomorrow due to the continued light winds.

Seas remain benign for now, but a long-period northwest swell
will reach the area this weekend from distant Typhoon Lionrock.
Models continue to keep the swell too small to generate hazardous
surf, but the swell may increase if Lionrock fails to move away
anytime soon.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Middlebrooke/W. Aydlett



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