Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 022353 RRA
AFDPQ

AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
758 AM CHST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EARLIER THIS MORNING DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALED EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 10 THOUSAND
FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MARIANAS REMAIN IN A DRY SEASON TRADE-WIND REGIME. IT HAS BEEN
OVER A MONTH SINCE WE HAD A WETTING RAIN AND NONE LOOK
PARTICULARLY LIKELY WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD EITHER. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL RISE A BIT...PROBABLY REQUIRING A RED FLAG WARNING LATER
TODAY AND BRING US RIGHT UP TO THE EDGE OF SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS ARE 6 TO 7 FEET RIGHT NOW...EAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PICK
UP SOON THOUGH. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BUMP RIGHT UP AGAINST THE
CRITERIA FOR SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. THEN STARTING
THURSDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES...LOOKS LIKE A BIT MORE WIND TODAY ALSO.
AROUND MID-MORNING WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING. BOTH THE GFS40 AND ECMWF-HIRES SHOW NO
LETUP IN THE DRY WEATHER ANYTIME SOON.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED JUST SOUTH
OF POHNPEI OVERNIGHT BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CONVECTION
IS BEGINNING TO WANE. TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRESENT FARTHER SOUTH OF KOSRAE AND WELL SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO. BOTH
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE MAJURO COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FROM AN AREA OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE TO THE EAST.
LATER IN THE WEEK...A TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWS SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET EAST OF THE
MARSHALLS...MAINLY NORTH OF 10N...IN AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE
WINDS. WAVE MODELS SHOW COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FEET
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BECOME HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...SURF IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS SOUTH OF KOROR...YAP AND CHUUK
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD
KOROR AND YAP. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER TONIGHT AT BOTH
LOCATIONS WITH QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS
SHOW CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NORTH OF THE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK
FOR KOROR AND YAP. AT CHUUK...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AROUND FRIDAY AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SPREAD
NORTHWARD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT



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