Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 272301
AFDPQ

AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
832 AM CHST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS WATERS...MAINLY IN THE GUAM AND ROTA WATERS. THE VAD WIND
PROFILE REVEALS EAST WINDS OF 8 TO 13 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6
THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MARIANAS REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE SHEAR
LINES. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. A MORE OR LESS STEADY TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN STEADY THIS WEEK...THEN EDGE UP A BIT
AROUND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
PORTION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH PERSISTS NEAR 3N...SOUTH OF
CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. DRY FRESH TRADES TO THE NORTH ARE GOING
TO DOMINATE CHUUK AND POHNPEI THRU THURSDAY...AND KOSRAE UNTIL LATE
THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY AT THE
END OF THE TROUGH SOUTH OF MAJURO NEAR 3N172E. STRONG TRADE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU TODAY AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARSHALLS BY TONIGHT. AS THE
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA CONTINUES
TO DRIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY...THIS COULD ALLOW THE DISTURBANCE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THEREFORE...EXPECT WET WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO SPREAD OVER KOSRAE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...POHNPEI AND CHUUK BY THURSDAY EVENING. A TRADE
CONVERGENCE ZONE CAN BE SEEN STRETCHING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE DISTURBANCE THRU THE DATE LINE TO NEAR 170W. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROLONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAJURO THRU THURSDAY
EVENING...KOSRAE UNTIL SUNDAY...POHNPEI AND CHUUK THRU SATURDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY MODERATE TRADES MIGHT FINALLY RETURN WITH
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REGION.

LARGE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL SUSTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF ACROSS
KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEA CONDITIONS
ACROSS POHNPEI STATE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL BE HAZARDOUS
FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST
SATELLITE ALTIMETRY DATA INDICATE SEAS ACROSS CHUUK STATE REMAIN
BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET. HOWEVER AS TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL
CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD TODAY...SEAS THERE COULD RISE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN MICRONESIA
SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR PATTERN.

MODERATE TRADES ARE GOING TO MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER FOR KOROR AND YAP
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
FROM 20N WILL TRANSFORM INTO A SHEAR LINE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA BY
FRIDAY. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMING OFF CHINA MIGHT NUDGE IT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KOROR AND YAP DURING THE WEEKEND. IF SO...THIS WILL
INCREASE SHOWERS AND SEAS FOR THE REGION.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN



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