Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 301957
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
550 AM ChST Mon May 1 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Moderate trades and isolated showers are present across the Marianas
and out to the east beyond 150E. Seas range from 3 to 5 ft at the
buoys.

&&

.Discussion...
No changes were needed to the forecast, as moderate trades and
isolated showers will persist for several more days. Seas will
build slightly tonight, and will be 4-6 ft through the week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A trade-wind disturbance embedded in fresh trades will sustain
showers a few thunderstorms near Chuuk thru tonight and Pohnpei
today. To the east, drier moderate to fresh trade winds should
promote relatively fair weather for Kosrae thru Wednesday and Majuro
thru Thursday. After the passage of the disturbance, the drier trades
will also arrive at Pohnpei this evening and Chuuk on Tuesday. The
only exception is a weak surface impulse currently upstream near the
northwestern Marshall Islands, which might spark off a few showers
for Pohnpei and Chuuk around midweek. Toward the weekend, the eastern
end of a near-equatorial trough near EQ155E might gradually lift
northward. Trade winds converging toward this feature could increase
shower coverage from west to east across the region.

Trade-wind swell and wind waves will maintain hazardous surf on
Kosrae thru this morning. As the swell and wind waves begin to
subside this afternoon, it should allow surf to fall below advisory
levels by late this afternoon.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A weak near-equatorial trough is expected to stay south of Koror and
Yap thru midweek. Latest IR WV satellite loop reveals mid-level dry
air approaching Yap from 139E. This will provide very stable
conditions for the island thru midweek. Since the core of this dry
air is not going to reach Koror, a couple of weak surface troughs
will likely trigger a few showers and a thunderstorm or two near the
capital thru Wednesday. Toward the weekend, the near-equatorial
trough might slowly lift northward closer to Koror and Yap. Based
on its dormant status, decided to maintain isolated showers near
Koror and Yap but kept partly cloudy skies for now.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Middlebrooke/Chan



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