Area Forecast Discussion
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939
FXPQ60 PGUM 060831 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
631 PM CHST SAT FEB 6 2016

SYNOPSIS...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES. THIS LULL WILL BE TEMPORARY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK. EAST TRADE WINDS WILL START BUILDING BY MONDAY AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH BY MID-WEEK. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
CORRESPOND TO A FURTHER INCREASE IN WINDS.

WEATHER SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS. WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHEAR
LINE MAY PUSH DOWN TO THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

MARINE...
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WERE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT. MODELS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS SO THE ADVISORY
WILL ONLY BE OUT UNTIL SUNSET.

IPAN AND TANAPAG BUOY DATA SHOW COMBINED SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF OF 6 TO 8 FEET AND
GENERATE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A NORTH SWELL HAS ENTERED THE AREA
BUT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL. SEAS WILL INCREASE THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIA DISCUSSIONS

EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND NEAR 31N167E IS
CHANNELING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS TOWARD THE REGION. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURGE IS JUST EAST OF CHUUK THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES COULD TRIGGER
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS ALL THE LOCATIONS FROM TIME TO TIME.
OTHERWISE...A GENERAL DRY TRADE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE FOCUS IS ON THE LARGE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEY ARE ALREADY PRODUCING
HAZARDOUS SURF ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND KOSRAE STATE...AND
MIGHT SPREAD IT TO POHNPEI AND CHUUK STATES THIS WEEKEND.
COMBINING WITH A KING TIDE CYCLE OF HIGHER THAN 5 FEET NEAR
MAJURO...COASTAL INUNDATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING
HIGH TIDES ALONG EAST FACING SHORES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
ALSO BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR TREND.

TWO DISTINCT SURFACE TROUGHS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU AND YAP STATE. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE PASSING SHOWERS
FOR BOTH PLACES THIS EVENING. THE ONE NEAR YAP HAS PRODUCED A
WETTING RAIN OF 0.20 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CAN PROVIDE
TEMPORARY RELIEF ON DRY FUELS WHICH CAN CONTRIBUTE TO WILD FIRE.
HOWEVER...THIS MEANS VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF REPLENISHING THE
WATER SUPPLY. A VERY DRY REGIME IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
COMING WEEK. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE CONSERVATION ON
WATER.

&&

GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING
FOR PMZ151>154.

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN



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