Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 021042
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
242 AM PST MON MAR  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS ADVERTISED...A WEATHER SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...SPREADING RAIN TO THE COAST AND EVEN
SOME INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS AND SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUDS. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS
OUT NEAR 140W WILL OTHERWISE BE THE MAIN FEATURE NEAR OUR FORECAST
AREA MOST OF THIS WEAK. SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES MAY BACKDOOR AND BRUSH THE CASCADE CREST AREA TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VACILLATING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A SYSTEM RIDING OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE PROBABLY
A BIT OF INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. AT THIS POINT...DRY WEATHER COULD
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE MODELS WERE PRETTY GOOD SHOWING A SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTH ALONG OUR COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST
AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST OF THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE RADAR ECHOES ACTUALLY FIT THE NAM12
PRECIPITATION FIELD PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
BY LATER THIS MORNING...SO LOOK FOR RATHER DRAMATICALLY DECREASING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
QUITE A FEW CLOUDS TRAILING THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH...SO IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE TODAY FOR CLOUDS TO BREAK UP AND BEGIN CLEARING SOME... BUT
SOME SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO BREAK THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE RATHER PERSISTENT THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE CASCADES
TONIGHT...AS THAT AREA IS BACKDOORED BY SOME CLOUDS OR MOISTURE FOR A
WHILE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS OUT NEAR 140W WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. AND THIS WILL BRING
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ANY OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES IS MODEST...WITH THE MAIN
EAST WIND NEAR THE GORGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SO WE COULD SEE SOME
LOCAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE GORGE IN THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AROUND THE AREA. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE NIPPY WITH THE
FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS DOWN NEAR FREEZING LATE
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE
NEAR OR EVEN POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THIS
AM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VFR INLAND...WITH MVFR ALONG THE COAST.
BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z...DRIER AIR FROM N WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG N OREGON COAST...AND SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD.
FARTHER INLAND...CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY LOW VFR THIS AM...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN UNTIL 16Z. WILL SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP AFTER 20Z AS INCREASING
DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO REGION.  ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC THIS
WEEK...WITH WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING S...THUS MAINTAINING GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE FAR
OUTER WATERS TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE. ALSO HAVE SEAS
RUNNING AROUND 7 TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND WITH THE SHORT
PERIOD DUE TO WINDS... WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STEEP LOCALLY CHOPPY
SEAS TODAY. BUT AS WINDS EASE LATER TODAY...SO TOO WILL THE SEAS
SUBSIDE.    ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



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