Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 071424
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
725 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
LATER TODAY AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WITH NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY...
WITH OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
CURRENT DRY FORECASTS WITH WARMER DAYS AHEAD LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATES
PLANNED.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...358 AM MST...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST
YESTERDAY PUTTING DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. PWAT AT TUS LAST NIGHT WAS DOWN TO JUST 0.11 INCHES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AT 1 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE
20S. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...AND
ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE SEEN LURKING TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA
AND OFF THE SRN BAJA COAST...THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA ANY TIME SOON IF AT ALL. H5 HEIGHTS HAVE CLIMBED IN
EXCESS OF 580DM OVER SRN AZ AND SOME OF THIS WARM AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN
WORKING TO THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMP AT PHOENIX YESTERDAY REACHED 74...5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL WARMING TO TAKE PLACE
TODAY WITH THE WARMER DESERTS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.

FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST
THINKING...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING IN EXCESS OF 99 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST BY TUESDAY. THIS
IS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR OUR LOWER
DESERTS FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE WARMER DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 80S...THEN RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BELOW RECORD LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART WE CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
LOCATION HITTING A RECORD SOMETIME FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL LIKELY BE SUNNY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE THIN SIDE AND FAIRLY HIGH UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
THEY SHOULD NOT KEEP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN MORE THAN A DEGREE
OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY IN TERMS OF WINDS.
NORTHERLY WINDS...AT TIMES ELEVATED IN SPEED...TO CONTINUE FOR KIPL
AND KBLH. ELEVATED JUST-OFF-SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS AND EVENTUALLY MIX OUT NEAR MIDDAY...PROMOTING SFC SPEEDS
10-14KTS POSSIBLE. SPEED DIFFERENCES OF NEAR-SFC WINDS FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS STAY SHORT OF LLWS CRITERIA...BUT STILL WORTH MENTIONING
THE POTENTIAL. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY TRANSITION IN FROM THE
SOUTH...BUT REMAIN THIN IN NATURE AND ABOVE 25KFT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL
SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80
DEGREE MARK. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE
DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER
RIDGETOPS AND GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE


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