Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 092104
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
205 PM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with seasonably comfortable temperatures will persist
through the weekend and into at least the middle of next week. Only
periods of passing high clouds will interrupt an otherwise beautiful
stretch of early winter weather while no precipitation will affect
communities into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Very little change in the overall pattern is expected through at the
middle part of next week. Model consensus continues to be
outstanding through the entire period, with all of the global model
suites, and the vast majority of their respective members keeping
the SW US under flat ridging and dry west-northwesterly flow aloft,
with little day-to-day change in temperatures. Lower desert highs
are expected to rise into the low-mid 70s each day. Skies will
remain mostly clear most days, with just some high cloudiness
passing over the region Saturday night and Sunday as a shortwave
passes to to our north, across the Great Basin, and into the central
Rockies. The only impact from the high cloudiness is to keep our
overnight lows elevated a bit on Saturday night/Sunday morning, with
many low desert locations seeing lows up in the low-mid 50s that
night.

There does appear to be a change coming in the weather pattern but
it will likely arrive after the end of the current 7 day forecast
which will be next Friday into the following weekend. Although
spaghetti ensemble members are very jumbled, preponderance of
guidance suggests a deep trof will set up over the western CONUS by
next Friday, leading to a chance of showers, much cooler high
temperatures and the potential for some very strong winds especially
over the western deserts. We will be keeping a close eye on this
developing shift in the weather pattern in the days ahead.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
There are no weather concerns for aviation. The winds will favor
typical diurnal patterns while remaining light through the TAF
period.

No aviation concerns through the TAF period. Winds will follow
normal diurnal headings and remain light aob 5 kts. However, due to
very light wind speeds, directions will be variable at times. Skies
will remain mostly clear with sct-bkn high clouds aoa 25 kft.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday through Thursday:
There are no significant fire weather concerns for the period.
Slightly above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions are
will persist with high clouds moving across the area at times. Winds
each day will mostly stay on the light side with typical afternoon
breeziness favoring the southwest or west. Humidities will be
elevated through the five day period with minimum RH values mostly
between 20 and 30 percent each day with great recoveries.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters activation will not be needed this week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...Percha/CB
AVIATION...Hernandez
FIRE WEATHER...CB/Deemer



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