Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 251952
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
252 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. AS THE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT...THESE CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE
WITH CALM WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS...PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S (TYPICAL RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS) TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 252 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED TRANQUIL AND FAIRLY MILD WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES (COMPARED TO TODAY)
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH THE HIGH
STARTING TO SLIP OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

SATURDAY:  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNDER A
SMATTERING OF CIRRUS CLOUDS...HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ON THE MILD
SIDE...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NEAR 60 NW TO LOWER-MID 60S SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WARM MOIST ADVECTION AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH RAIN SPREADING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AOA DAYBREAK. LOWS IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: LEFT BEHIND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE SATURDAY WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT
EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS-LOWER MS VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...NEARLY SHEARED APART BY THE TIME IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT WAVY FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE
AREA...PROGGED TO SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...AND TRENDING MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT DRIVES THE FRONT WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

SURGE OF STRONG WAA WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.3-1.6" COUPLED WITH
DPVA FROM S/W DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE
A POSSIBLE LULL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH RENEWED LIFT/FORCING
ARRIVING AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE
DRASTICALLY AFTER 18Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT
MID-LEVEL DRYING...AS FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. RAIN AND CLOUDS
WILL COOL TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...WITH MORE PRONOUNCED NORTH-
SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL DOWNSTREAM OF THE
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW US. AN EXPANSIVE 1050MB ARCTIC
HIGH WILL BRING A SHOT OF COLD AIR DOWN THE NATIONS MID-
SECTION...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS COLD
AIRMASS THAT WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MIDWEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. CURRENT
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT WILL SUBSIDE SOME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE
BECOMING CALM AFTER SUNSET AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. THEN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. -KRD

LOOKING AHEAD: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE (THOUGH
STILL EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE AREA) FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TEMPORARILY STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...KRD/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT



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