Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 240032
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
831 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push south through the region this evening and
overnight. High pressure over the Great Lakes will build south and
east through the rest of the week, bringing cooler and drier
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 831 PM Wednesday...

Update to remove the isolated severe threat. Also, lower POP to
isolated chances as the main line of convection was exiting
our SE Coastal Plain at the moment.

Isolated showers/thunderstorms may still occur as the cold front
dips south across the region overnight. However, the main
storms are obviously tied to the pre-frontal convective band exiting
the SE zones, greatly stabilizing the areas to the north and west
over most of our area.

Winds overnight will become northerly then northeasterly. Extensive
cloudiness is expected, especially in the eastern zones where the
low level moisture will linger and be slow to scour out (dew points
in the 70s).

Mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the mid 60s north, 70-
75 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

For Thursday expect the frontal zone to hang up either in far
southeastern areas of the state or just offshore. With the exception
of a lingering afternoon shower in the far southeastern portion of
the forecast area, much of the CWA should remain dry and
significantly cooler than the past week or so. Expect high
temperatures only in the low to mid 80s with north winds at 5-10
kts. Skies will continue to clear as the day progresses with the
Triad seeing the most sun. Lows in the low to mid 60s across the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Wednesday...

An extended period of mostly dry and cooler-than-normal weather
appears likely. Cool Canadian high pressure will build in strongly
from the north through the period, as its center drifts from N
Ontario early Fri to New England early Mon, then weakens just off
the Northeast and Mid Atlantic coast Tue/Wed. The only significant
rain chance through the period appears to be in the far SE, closer
to the old frontal zone where PW will be higher. The far NW
including the Triad will see a smaller chance of light precip,
driven largely by moist upglide and shallow instability, mainly Fri
night into Sat, with overrunning clouds dominating there through
Sun. Will start to edge pops up closer to climatology for early next
week, given the uncertainty with a potential tropical-type low off
the SE coast, along with the weakening of the surface high and
resultant increase in onshore-directed low level flow drawing in
Atlantic moisture. Expect high temps in the low-mid 80s Fri, before
trending down to the mid 70s to near 80 by Tue as the stable wedge
noses down through central NC. Some rebounding back to highs in the
low-mid 80s is expected by Wed as low level thicknesses begin to
inch back up toward normal. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 831 PM Wednesday...

An isolated shower or storm is still possible overnight, mainly
from KRDU eastward. Otherwise, MVFR to IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS
are forecast in the east later tonight into Thursday, with MVFR CIGS
in the KINT/KGSO areas.

CIGS should return to MVFR to VFR Thursday afternoon, with VFR
VSBYS.

Long Term: High pressure over the area should yield an extended
period of VFR conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Ellis
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Badgett



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