Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 061648
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1150 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 910 AM FRIDAY...

CANCELED ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE AS ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS OF BLACK ICE
BEING REPORTED. A NARROW BAND OF STRATOCU EDGING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT MID MORNING PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES AS OBSERVED AT GSO/PTI AIRPORT SHORTLY AFTER 13Z. THIS BAND
OF CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY DISSOLVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT WEST-
SW. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER OUR SE COUNTIES...EXPECT SUNNY-MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL LIMIT NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY TODAY.
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NORTH BY MID DAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT HIGH TEMPS FORECAST APPEARS ON TARGET...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NE TO THE LOWER 40S SW.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE 20S
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 NE AND LOW-MID
20S SOUTH AND WEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

MODERATION IN A GRADUAL SENSE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS RETURN TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...

SUN-SUN NIGHT: SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST SUN GIVEN A
RELATIVELY NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CONFINED WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED OVER THE DESERT SW/WESTERN
GOMEX. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S SUN AND LOWS UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S SUN NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM
THE WEST/SW AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ATTENDANT
WAA/FGEN...AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WSW-ENE ORIENTED SWATH OF H7
FRONTOGENESIS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTH/NW PORTIONS OF THE STATE
LATE SUN NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEST CHANCES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND NW.

MON-TUE NIGHT: WHILE PRIOR GUIDANCE INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH LITTLE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION...THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION WILL
OCCUR UPSTREAM OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE MON INTO TUE...WITH A
RELATIVELY MORE ROBUST GOMEX WAVE PROGRESSIVELY TRACKING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT INCREASED CHANCES
FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUE. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WILL DECREASE HIGH TEMPS AND
INCREASE LOW TEMPS FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES.

WED-THU: UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY BECOME CUT-OFF OVER
THE WESTERN GULF AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS TIME
WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM FRIDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
SUB VFR CEILINGS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASING BY TUESDAY. ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...WSS


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