Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS62 KRAH 290150

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
950 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

High pressure will persist over the Piedmont through Monday night.
An area of low pressure over the Atlantic will drift west toward the
Carolina coast through Tuesday.


As of 950 PM Sunday...

Tropical Depression Eight continued to be located well SE of Cape
Hatteras this evening, slowly moving west. A mid level circulation
was also noted 100+ miles east of Savannah, moving slowly west. A
surface high pressure extended from off the New England coast
southwest into the southern Appalachians. There was mixing of dry
mid level air down to the surface over inland areas today,
especially the Piedmont where some upper 50s dew points were briefly
observed in the Triad late afternoon. The flow around these features
continued to bring a NE near surface flow across NC. The
trajectories were beginning to come from off the Atlantic and Sounds
into eastern NC and this is where dew points were well into the 70s.

A fairly well defined dew point boundary was setting up over the
region and this should play a role in the development of low
clouds/fog later tonight. Areas stretching from the coast westward
into the eastern Piedmont (along and east of the boundary) will see
a deck of low clouds/stratus develop between 500 am and 800 am, then
linger for a few hours Monday. Back west, the northern and western
Piedmont will remain under the influence of an area of high pressure
near the surface and aloft. This will maintain mostly clear skies.
Shower chances are relatively NIL in the NW but remain slight to low
chance in the east due to the increasing low and mid level moisture
and boundary. Lows should range from the lower 60s NW to lower 70s


As of 321 PM Sunday...

Little change in the weather pattern across central NC Monday and
Monday night. An area of high pressure will continue to extend
across the western Piedmont, maintaining dry weather and seasonable
temps. Moisture axis associated with the mid/upper level trough off
the southeast U.S. will maintain a threat for showers and
thunderstorms with most of the convection confined to the coastal
plain and eastern sandhills. A few showers will likely be occurring
in the morning though the bulk of the activity will occur during the
mid afternoon into the early evening hours.

Cloudiness over the eastern counties will inhibit sunshine for most
of the morning, delaying temp recovery. Thus, should see a fairly
uniform max temp field Monday afternoon with highs in the 85-90
degree range.

Monday night will see conditions comparable to tonight with most of
the cloudiness confined to the coastal plain and mostly clear skies
in the western Piedmont. Min temps upper 60s west-nw to the lower
70s se.


As of 243 PM SUNDAY...

A couple of systems to deal with during the long-term period, the
first of which will be what comes of TD8, now located about 400mi SE
of KHSE. Based on latest model guidance and NHC track, it appears
that system will remain far enough to our east to preclude any
impacts to central NC.  Assuming no changes, the Tue-Wed time frame
looks to be mostly-dry with subsidence on the north and west side of
that system resulting in below-climo pops for central NC, along with
temps remaining several deg above normal, despite NE flow.

The next system will be a short wave trough and assoc sfc cold front
approaching from the north on Wednesday night and moving across our
CWA on Thursday. While the sfc boundary coupled with mid-upr forcing
assoc with a departing jet streak will provide adequate forcing for
ascent, NW pre-frontal low to mid-level flow suggests that the best
moisture will be found closer to the coast.  Thus will feature a
west-east pop gradient for the day and evening hours Thursday,
highest pops east. Temps will continue to remain above normal until
the front moves through.

Lastly, a lot of uncertainty remains for next weekend as it relates
to what`s now the disturbed weather over the FL straights. Models
have been bouncing around with it`s movement, and whether or not
it`s going to make a run up along the SE coast late in the week into
next weekend. Of course a lot can change between now and then, so
for now, will keep pops at or below climo with near normal temps
across our area for next weekend, while keeping a close eye on
model trends.


As of 740 PM SUNDAY...

24-Hour TAF period: Expect aviation conditions similar to last
night, with a period of low cigs and reduced visbys in the 09Z to
13Z time frame. Highest confidence of adverse aviation conditions in
the south and east (KRDU, KFAY, KRWI) and lowest in the northwest
(KINT and KGSO). Sub-vfr cigs could linger through the day at KRWI
and KFAY, but confidence in that is low so will indicate scattered
coverage. Best chance for showers overnight will be at KRWI as the
tropical depression continues to move toward the Carolina coast,
however they continue to dissipate as they progress inland. If and
where they occur, showers could briefly reduce cigs and visbys.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds
could be a bit breezy Monday as the pressure gradient increases,
with highest gusts to the southeast. -KC

Looking ahead: The above conditions expected to occur again Tuesday.
Forecast confidence lowers for the remainder of the work week as
model guidance offering varied solutions concerning the approach of
a low pressure system from the south-southwest, and a cold front
from the nw. At this time, the risk of adverse aviation conditions
appear greater at KFAY and KRWI, and less so at KRDU, KGSO, and




NEAR TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...KC/WSS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.