Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 121053
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION PERIODICALLY. A MODERATE WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

PERIODS OF MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND IT WILL REESTABLISH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND KEEP THE STORM TRACK DEFLECTED INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
LOWER AND BELOW RECORDS TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SHIFT TO A
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WEST
COAST ON SUNDAY/MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. ELW

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING, EXCEPT
TO CONTINUE RAISING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WED-THU. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S FOR WESTERN NEVADA.

WE HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO RISE. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE SIERRA AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE
LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE
ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TIMING OF THE
STORM, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THAT WE WILL SEE INCREASING
WINDS, SIERRA SNOW, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUD DECKS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT AT
RIDGE LEVEL. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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