Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KREV 240938
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
238 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS,
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY START TO
INCREASE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ACROSS THE WEST THIS WEEK BRINGING A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 80S
FOR THE SIERRA. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE MAY REACH
100 DEGREES BY SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE ALL AREAS BEGIN TO WARM BETWEEN 1-2
DEGREES EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BY SATURDAY, MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD. THERE ARE NO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY CUMULUS BUILDUPS
LIKELY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEISHAHN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MADE ONLY VERY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ALL TRY TO BUILD
THE RIDGE BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT THERE IS VARIATION IN HOW FAR
WEST THE RIDGE AXIS GETS. IF THE RIDGE IS FARTHER WEST THERE WILL BE
BETTER CHANCES FOR TSTMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WHILE IF IT STAYS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THE CONCENTRATION COULD BE
FROM MONO COUNTY NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NV.

FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE TSTM COVERAGE UNCHANGED THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
THAT SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SW FLOW ALOFT AS ANOTHER TROUGH TRIES TO
DIG TOWARD THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT LESS
CHANCE OF TSTMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH
AND POSSIBLY LESS CHANCE OF TSTMS INTO PARTS OF WRN NV. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CREST IN THE TAHOE AREA AND PARTS OF
NE CA AS FAR NORTH AS SW LASSEN COUNTY.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS APPROACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WRN NV BASIN AND RANGE EACH DAY. CLOUD COVER
COULD ALTER THE HIGHS A BIT EACH DAY...BUT ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. 20
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY SW FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL WINDS EARLY TODAY
WILL BE MORE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER WRN NV AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT
BACK TO THE WEST BY LATE DAY...BUT WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG AT ANY
LOCATION. WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER FROM THE WEST IN THE LEE
OF THE SIERRA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 20
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.