Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 191012
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
312 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING SMOKE AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AS EAST
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SIERRA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH. FOR THIS WEEKEND, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEVADA.
FOR NEXT WEEK, STRONGER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS BY
MIDWEEK, THEN A COOLING TREND AND POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NV OVERNIGHT, WHILE BRIEF
SHOWERS ALSO POPPED UP IN THE TAHOE BASIN. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CA TO CENTRAL NV APPEARS TO BE KEEPING THIS
ACTIVITY GOING, BUT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST THIS ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WILL BE PREVAILING EAST FLOW
WHICH WILL KEEP SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.
LEFTOVER SMOKE AND HAZE AROUND TRUCKEE AND IN SOME WESTERN NV
VALLEYS MAINLY FROM HIGHWAY 50 SOUTHWARD SHOULD DISPERSE THIS
MORNING AS MIXING HEIGHTS RISE. THE EAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP SMOKE
OUT OF THE REGION AGAIN SATURDAY. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE LATE IN THE DAY
MAINLY FOR THE TAHOE BASIN. WHETHER THESE WINDS WILL PUSH SMOKE
EAST OF THE CREST AGAIN DEPENDS ON HOW ACTIVE THE KING FIRE IS
BURNING ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SMOKE EAST
OF THE SIERRA CREST ON SUNDAY. IF ANY SMOKE DOES MAKE IT OVER, IT
WOULD LIKELY BE MUCH LESS CONCENTRATED COMPARED TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

OTHER THAN THE MORNING CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY IS SLIM AS MAIN UPPER LOW SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST.
A FEW CELLS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CREST SOUTH OF TAHOE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEY WOULD MOST LIKELY MOVE WEST OF THE CREST BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY DUSK.

FOR THIS WEEKEND, THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO EJECT INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA SATURDAY, THEN TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL BRING POSSIBLE CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON
SATURDAY. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN
SHIFTS TO WEST CENTRAL NV SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS BANDS OF
MOISTURE WRAP AROUND THE LOW CENTER. THIS RAIN POTENTIAL IS STILL
PRELIMINARY, AS SOME GUIDANCE SPREADS QPF FARTHER WEST ACROSS
RENO-TAHOE AND EVEN NORTHEAST CA, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SOURCES
FAVOR THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN AND THUNDER TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NV.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU SATURDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD
90 DEGREE TEMPS ARE UNLIKELY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BY SUNDAY, THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER 80S IN WESTERN NV AND 70S FOR
MOST SIERRA VALLEYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THEN THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN NOW, WITH THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK TROUGH.

FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY, LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE
EAST PACIFIC LOW AND WEAK RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. EXPECT
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SW BREEZES WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THEN THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE GFS FASTER
AND WETTER, WHILE THE EC IS SLOWER AND SHOWS A BIT MORE OF A SPLIT AS
THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS TO BE WINDY WEDNESDAY
AS H7 WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS OR MORE WITH A GOOD THERMAL GRADIENT.
INCREASED THE WINDS A BIT DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT
HERE. MOVING INTO THURSDAY, THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROUNDS
THE BASE. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HERE BETWEEN THE MODELS ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MORE SUPPORT FOR THE GFS AS OF THIS WRITING. STILL, MY GUT
IS TELLING ME THE EC WILL END UP BEING MORE CORRECT IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE WITH THE SPLITTING SOLUTION.

CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA SPREADING TO ALL AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THURSDAY. WARMED TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF A PORTOLA
TO GERLACH LINE WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CONTINUED THE SHARP COOLDOWN FOR THURSDAY, BUT IT MAY END UP BEING
WARMER THAN WE HAVE ADVERTISED IF THE EC AND SPLITTING SOLUTIONS
VERIFY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR HIGHWAY 95 THIS MORNING
NORTH OF YERINGTON, BUT THESE SHOULD END BY 16Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
A GENERALLY DRY DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SOME
FOG AND HAZE NEAR KTRK THIS MORNING, BUT THAT SHOULD CLEAR BY 18Z
WITH THE EAST WINDS. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY.

STILL EXPECT EAST WINDS SATURDAY TO KEEP KING FIRE SMOKE WEST OF THE
SIERRA CREST. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO CREEP
NORTHWARD. WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










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