Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 061316
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
916 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE NC/VA COAST THIS MORNING NORTH TO PA/NJ
BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY THEN
MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 916 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND REACH THE
JERSEY SHORE ON SATURDAY MORNING. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH
LATEST OBS AND LEANED LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE
LAV GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
DECREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING WITH MORNING RADAR TRENDS AND
SHAPED LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON POPS TOWARDS RNK WRFARW
SOLUTION. HAVE A GOOD DAY !


AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LOOKING AT MAINLY HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SYSTEM OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY THIS
AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SFC
LOW EAST OF THE TIDEWATER OF VA WILL KEEP AN AXIS OF STEADIER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FURTHER WEST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/VORT ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH
NW FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS SHOULD ENHANCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WV
MTNS AS WELL...WITH THE LOWER THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS PER MODELS/WPC SUGGEST ANOTHER ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN THE EAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IF DEEPER CONVECTION CAN GET GOING...WHILE THE WEST WILL SEE ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH OR LESS...WITH AGAIN HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE OVER SE WV
LATER TODAY.

AS FAR AS FLOOD CONCERNS GO...IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WATCH...BUT GIVEN RAINFALL IN THE LOWER DAN RIVER BASIN...THE DAN AT
SOUTH BOSTON WILL REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATER BY DAWN TODAY...THEN
DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT. FLOOD WARNING ALREADY ISSUED FOR
THIS AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RANDOLPH ON THE ROANOKE RIVER AND A
FEW SURROUNDING STREAMS AND RIVERS THRU THE DAY.

AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST AND UPPER LOW MOVE NORTHWARD MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT SITUATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BUT NOTHING OVER 35 MPH SHOULD
OCCUR. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER RIDGES...THE
WINDS WILL ADD A NIP IN THE AIR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER POCKET OF AIR MOVE EAST...SO
ANY SNOW ACROSS THE NC HIGH COUNTRY INTO FAR SW VA SHOULD BE GONE BY
MID MORNING.

SOME SUNSHINE COULD WORK INTO THE NC/VA FOOTHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER ERN PA/NJ. SHOULD BECOME DRIER
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE SOUTH
AND WEST. SOME FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE WET
GROUND...THOUGH WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LOWER TO MID 40S
WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT PLENTY OF COOL AND WET
WEATHER TO OUR REGION WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH/LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE
THE KICKER THAT GETS THE CLOSED LOW MOVING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS OF THIS CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL STILL BE IN OUR FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. AFTER A SMALL
BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY SATURDAY MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE CANADIAN
SYSTEM. ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR WEST.
LIMITED...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED
TO STALL OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HEADING INTO SUNDAY...WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHAT REMAINS OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY HEAD NORTH THROUGH THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL START TO TAP GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE AND ADVECT IN OUR WAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN IN OUR FORECAST...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
MILDER AND BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. ON
WEDNESDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A WAVY WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AS SEEN IN THE LIS IS TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK. THEN...BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...A COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LOWER CEILINGS HAVE NOT TRANSPIRED AS EARLIER FORECAST IN THE EAST
DESPITE THE RAINY CONDITIONS. SEEMS ENOUGH MIXING ALLOWING FOR
CLOUD BASES TO STAY JUST ABOVE 3000 FT. AS SUCH WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE TAFS AT DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG ONLY
PUTTING TEMPORARY TIMING FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SHOULD STAY
RAINY AT TIMES AT BOTH THESE SITES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH
LESS COVERAGE IN THE WEST.

WILL SEE CEILINGS AT BLUEFIELD GO FROM LIFR TO MVFR BY 15Z...AND
VFR BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND
STRONGER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS
COMMON OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AT SUNSET.

TONIGHT ANY RAIN MOVES OUT AND SHOULD SEE CLEARING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG FORMATION...BUT KEPT IT OUT FOR
NOW THINKING ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS ON NW
FLOW. LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE SO THEY COULD SEE SOME FOG...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE IN THE TAFS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MAINLY VFR INTO SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE
ARRIVE SAT NIGHT-SUN WHICH COULD BRING SUB VFR WEATHER TO THE
AREA...MAINLY BCB/BLF/LWB.

MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THOUGH WARM
FRONT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS. WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE
WITH THOSE OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...RCS/WP



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