Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 302354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN STRENGTHEN AND KEEP US IN A RATHER STAGNANT
PATTERN...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WILL SEE BEST CONVERGENCE...ALBEIT WEAK...SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING WHERE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP HERE AND
THERE BETWEEN LEWISBURG AND BLACKSBURG. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
ISOLATED RANGE..SOME SCATTERED MAINLY WV/FAR SW VA.

HIGH-RES MODELS TAKING THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA/WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA NWD TOWARD OUR
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NC BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH ARE
WEAKENING IT. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTH PAST MIDNIGHT.

MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS/SKY COVER THROUGH THE EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOLID MID/UPPER OVERCAST BUT
SURFACE OBS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOWER CLOUDS
UNDERNEATH. FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON THIS DRIER AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS HAS RESULTED IN RETURNS ON AREA RADARS YIELDING LITTLE MORE
THAN SPOTTY SPRINKLES. HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SOME
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION HAD BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. BELIEVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE FAR WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. THEN AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND HELP
GENERATE ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NC AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. MONDAY WILL
SEE MOST OF THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PULLING OFF TO THE
EAST...LEAVING US IN A MOIST AND WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT THAT
SHOULD HELP GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TO THE WEST. HIGHS
TOMORROW LOOK TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80
WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECTING 500 MB RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL PIECES OF ENERGY BUT
THESE WILL BE WEAK AND DO NOT APPEAR ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ANY
DECENT LIFT FOR THE REGION. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

WHILE THERE MAY BE WEAK SURFACE TROFS IN THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND NO CHANGE OF
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. COMBINATION OF MAV AND MOS GUIDANCE WAS
REASONABLE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 594 DM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY. CHALLENGING TO TRACK ANY SUBTLE SHORT WAVES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY IMPACT THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARM INTO THE +16 TO +20 RANGE BY SUNDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WILL MAINLY SEE VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY ALLOW FOR CIGS TO DIP TOWARD HIGH END MVFR...THOUGH
SEEING LITTLE THREAT AT THE MOMENT.

MODELS START FAVORING SOME LOWERING CIGS MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT DANVILLE WITH SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WILL
NOT HAVE ANY OTHER TAF SITES AFFECTED. MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH BREAK
IN THE OVC TO ALLOW PATCHY MVFR FOG AT LYH LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY VFR AGAIN WITH CIGS IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THE
MOST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE BKN V SCT CONDITIONS.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 700 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT.
AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...


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