Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 291137
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
737 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast off the Mid Atlantic coast this
morning which will pull a warm front north through the region.
Two cold front will cross through the region from the
northwest,the first this afternoon and the next late on Tuesday.
High pressure will follow for late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Upper low moves east across the Great Lakes today and tonight with
little change in 500MB heights over the Mid Atlantic region. 500MB
temperatures drop today which should eliminate the mid level cap.

Surface low off the southeast Virginia coast will move northeast
today. This will push the warm front out of the Virginia piedmont
with winds coming around to the west. Low clouds and fog over
Lynchburg and to the north and east will move out as the front
retreats.

The west surface through 850MB wind will keep low level and moisture
against the west slopes of the Appalachians. By afternoon winds back
enough to the southwest to bring deeper moisture into the foothills
and piedmont of North Carolina and southern Virgina. Models now
bringing the boundary through the region this morning. A wave
of low pressure tracking along the front will slow down its
southward progress tonight. Will have highest probability of
precipitation in northern North Carolina this afternoon, but
GFS, RAP and NAM all showing differences in location of the
northern edge of the deeper moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

A broad area of low pressure will cover southern Canada south into
the southern plains to the Carolinas Tuesday. This upper level
trough will push a surface trough over the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening. This trough with lowering heights will be enough to
generate thunderstorms in the afternoon with a few becoming strong.
Majority of the stronger convection should stay south across the
Carolinas where a mid level disturbance is forecast to track.
Tuesday night this surface trough will slide south with little to no
overnight convection. The passing of the surface trough Tuesday will
mainly bring a wind shift. Outside of a shower, temperatures should
warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

A weak cold front will bring another day of scattered convection to
the area Wednesday. This front will have better jet dynamics than
Tuesday`s trough. However, low level winds will primarily be out of
the west and possibly strong enough to disrupt organized convection
in the afternoon. Still can not rule out some strong to severe
thunderstorms during the late afternoon and into the evening.
Depending on the timing of the front and associated showers,
temperatures will range in the 70s west of the Blue Ridge and low to
mid 80s east.

The upper level trough will begin to lose its influence on the
region Thursday. Surface high pressure and zonal flow will keep the
region dry. Temperatures will warm to near normal with mid 70s west
and lower 80s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1111 AM EDT Sunday...

Heavily used a blend of guidance for this forecast period. Clearing
of the front Wednesday night with increasing subsidence follows for
overnight into Thursday. Thursday appears to be the next day with
fully dry and mostly sunny conditions for the forecast area along
with seasonable temperatures. Unfortunately, it appears that is
short-lived, as a trough digs into the southwestern CONUS and sends
weak vorticity maxima pivoting eastward across the central Plains,
Ohio/TN valleys and into the Appalachians. Difficult to time any
specific disturbances at this range but it does appear we return to
a more unsettled weather pattern for late week into the weekend.
Temperatures start out near normal, then begin to trend near to
slightly above along with rising dewpoints heading into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 735 AM EDT Monday...

Warm front has moved northeast and surface winds in the piedmont
of Virginia and North Carolina were light out of the southwest.
The west edge of the LIFR/IFR stratus and fog was near KFVX.
MVFR clouds were along the west slopes of the Appalachians.
Isolated showers are expected in southeast West Virginia this
morning. Visibilities will remain VFR. Medium confidence that
ceilings at KBLF will improve to VFR by 14Z/10AM.

A cold front moves into the area from the northwest this
afternoon. Winds will back to the southwest ahead of the front,
bringing increasing moisture and a chance of showers and
thunderstorms into northern North Carolina and extreme southern
Virginia. 00Z NAM had the northern edge of the precipitation as
far north as KROA and KLYH but many of the other models held a
bulk of the precipitation chance in North Carolina. Scattered
thunderstorms may approach KDAN around 00Z but low confidence
of occurrence so kept it out of the TAF.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Mainly VFR through the week except for early morning river
valley fog. There is the potential for scattered afternoon and
evening storms Wednesday, Friday and the weekend. Tuesday and
Thursday are expected to be dry.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...AMS/PM


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