Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 171657

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1057 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

An upper level shortwave trough is currently spreading east across
the Plains early this morning. Ahead of the trough in an area of
warm air advection, precipitation has developed across
northeastern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, northern Arkansas and
southern Missouri. There is some drier air in the low levels, but
there is enough lift to over come the dry air fairly quickly. As
the drier air is overcome, there will be some wet bulbing and
temperatures will cool slightly. The precipitation type currently
is rain, but as the rain continues to spread north where colder
air is in place, the rain will mix with and change over to snow
briefly this morning. However, warmer temperatures will spread
north through the morning in the warm air advection, so the snow
will mix/change right back to rain. A few flakes will be possible
across much of the area but the best chances for snow will be
across central Missouri. Minor snow accumulations will be possible
on mainly grassy and elevated surfaces, but due to temperatures
around freezing along with a warm ground, no impacts are

The rain will spread out of the area by mid day. Temperatures will
range from the middle 40s across central Missouri to the middle
50s across southeastern Kansas this afternoon. Lows tonight will
drop into the low to middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Southerly winds will increase on Sunday ushering in warmer
temperatures as highs top out in the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
Wind gusts up to 30mph will be possible. Combined with warm and
dry conditions, this could lead to some localized elevated fire
weather conditions. Highs on Monday will warm to around 70 as the
warmer air mass continues to spread into the region.

An upper level trough will then dig south across the west coast
Sunday into Monday. Lift will start to spread north into the area
and lead to some scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms
Sunday night into Monday night.

The trough will then spread east into the Plains Monday night and
Tuesday sending a cold front south into the area. More widespread
rainfall will develop on the front and it will stall or slow
across the area later Tuesday into Wednesday. This will lead to
some locally heavy rainfall as several inches of rain will be
possible. The heavier amounts will generally occur farther south
across the area.

Colder temperatures will spread into the area behind the front,
which will lead to some wintry precipitation being possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday. There are questions on the exact
timing and where the front will slow and how sharp and deep the
cold air behind the front will be.

Another upper level trough may then track through the area later
in the week, but confidence is low with this system.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

The main aviation concerns for pilots will be low ceilings and
visibilities through early afternoon before conditions greatly
improved by late afternoon into this evening. Another concern will
be the gusty winds late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. IFR
to some LIFR ceilings will continue through 19z or 20z before MVFR
ceilings by mid afternoon and clearing skies after 21z from west
to east across the area. Skies will be mostly clear or fair
tonight and tomorrow. Winds will shift southwesterly to westerly
this afternoon then back to southerly tonight. Gusty southerly
winds return by late Sunday morning with some gusts up to 25




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