Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
FXUS66 KSGX 261026
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
326 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016
Mid level moisture in southeast flow aloft will bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms to eastern San Diego County
this morning...and near the mountains this afternoon and early
evening. Gradually warmer through Thursday or Friday...then slow
cooling into early next week. A greater influx of monsoonal
moisture will bring a slight chance of afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts for Friday through
early next week.
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
A small complex of thunderstorms over far southwestern Arizona and
far southeastern California late Monday evening put out a weak
outflow boundary to the southwest and west. That helped to
initiate some weak shower development over the mountains of far
northern Baja. Satellite imagery shows a band of mid level
moisture extending from northwestern Baja across Imperial
County...moving slowly to the West. Radar imagery shows a
few...mostly light showers in this band of moisture with no
lightning strikes since around 1 AM. There are small chances for
light showers and an isolated thunderstorm over eastern and far
southern San Diego County early this morning...but most likely not
much beyond some increased mid level cloud cover over the
southeastern third of San Diego County early this morning. There
is also a slight chance of thunderstorms near the mountains this
afternoon and early evening...through reduced surfacing heat due
to mid level cloud cover could be a limiting factor for the San
Diego County mountains.
Otherwise...gradaully warmer through Thursday or Friday...then
slowly cooler into early next week. Lesser chances for convection
for Wednesday and Thursday...then a greater influx of monsoonal
moisture in south to southeast flow aloft with a slight chance of
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms for the mountains and
deserts for Friday into early next week.
260930Z...Coast/Valleys...Stratus slow to develop near the coast
this morning. KSAN, KCRQ, and KSNA may have a ceiling for a time
between 12-16Z. Bases will be 600-1100 ft MSL with local vis 3-5 SM
over higher coastal terrain. After 16Z, SCT-BKN clouds at/above
15000 ft MSL. Stratus redeveloping this evening with cigs around 700-
1200 ft MSL.
Mtns/Deserts...A few light showers are possible over southeastern
San Diego County this morning. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms over the mountains this afternoon with bases 9000 ft
MSL and tops to 35000 ft MSL, along with local surface gusts to 40
knots and LLWS. Otherwise, occasional SCT-BKN clouds at/above 15000
ft MSL and unrestricted vis will prevail through Wed morning.
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Saturday.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.