Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 241205
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
455 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING MAINTAINING A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN BRINGING A SLOW INLAND WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK AND
WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN DEPTH FOR MONDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL
MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT BROUGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING AROUND 1 AM. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING ONTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR A SLOW INLAND WARMING TREND FOR
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG EXTENDING INLAND INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS WITH SIMILAR
COVERAGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
BAJA EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE INLAND WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME GRADUALLY
SHALLOWER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY...AND NO FARTHER INLAND THAN
THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

24/1150Z

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES 020-030 AGL AND
TOPS NR FL050...COVER ALL AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY
LIMITED CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON CIGS WILL BE LOW VFR.

WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK-MOD UDDFS
AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAKENING
FURTHER AFT 17Z.

KSAN...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC MVFR CIGS
COULD PERSIST TO 20Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF LOW VFR CIG DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

200 AM...3FT/16 SEC SOUTH SWELLS WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS
MORNING...PEAK MONDAY AND SUBSIDE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME ELEVATED SURF IN ORANGE COUNTY AND
NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     MONDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION...LOX
MARINE/BEACHES...PG


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