Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 251119
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
SHOWERS...MORE LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A SECOND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COMBINED
WITH OFFSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
SOME COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS WITH WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR INLAND COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AREAS WHERE OVERNIGHT WINDS CAUSED MIXING OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT...MAINLY THE COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS AND AREAS BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS...WILL GET A WARM START WITH TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THESE
LOCATIONS STILL IN THE LOWER 70S AS OF 3 AM.

THE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG NOR AS WIDESPREAD AS ON SATURDAY.

FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
SHOWERS COULD BEGAN AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE
COAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH WITH MOSTLY ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN THE DESERTS AND FAR
INLAND VALLEYS WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS TOWARDS THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 7500 TO 8000 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME CONTINUING MODEL SPREAD IN THE DETAILS. THE 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS THE 00Z GFS WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER
AND FARTHER EAST AND INSULTINGLY DRIER. IF THE THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTIONS WERE TO HOLD...POPS WOULD NEED TO BE INCREASED SOME FOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
251000Z...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE
PASSES AND CANYONS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND
LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN LIKELY WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE PERIOD.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 AM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INTO THIS MORNING...WITH
WINDS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS TODAY AND COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE AREAS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO   AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB








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