Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 021501
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1101 AM AST TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR THIS MORNING ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES...SOME LIGHT PASSING SHWRS WITH VFR CONDS
ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES. DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...MVFR CONDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM AST TUE JUN 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...PWAT ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME
ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS.

FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ANOTHER
PULSE OF MOISTURE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THIS WAVE...MODELS SUGGEST A DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK. DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...MVFR
CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA...AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCD ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. E TO ESE SFC WIND AT
10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUST IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA...AND SEA BREEZE ACROSS
THE COASTAL SECTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFT 02/12Z.

MARINE...SEAS BELOW 4 FEET AND TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  78  90  78 /  20  40  40  30
STT  86  78  86  78 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

15/27



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