Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 300059
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
859 PM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...FROM VEGA BAJA
WEST TO MOCA. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED OVER THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF CAMUY...QUEBRADILLAS AND LARES. A STREAM LINE
THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX AND OVER
VIEQUES...AFFECTED THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. VARIOUS
URBAN AND FLOOD ADVISORY WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREAS.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TISX.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM AST TUE JUL 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS OVER FAJARDO AND CEIBA IN THE EAST...MANATI...VEGA
BAJA AND MOROVIS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO...AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. U.S.G.S RIVER SENSORS INDICATED
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER RIO FAJARDO...AND
OVER RIO GUAJATACA. A COOP OBSERVER REPORTED ALSO OVER 2 INCHES AT
PALMAREJO SECTOR IN VEGA BAJA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
DAYTIME HEATING.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL COMBINE WIT DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE CURRENT OF MOVEMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
NEAR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS TO PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TISX.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  77  89 /  30  30  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/10




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