Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 291756
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
156 PM AST FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough will aid in the development of
showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Subsidence up
front the tropical wave will generate a more stable and drier
conditions tonight across our local region. A strong Tropical
wave located in the central Atlantic is expected to move quickly
west across the atlantic and reach our local region Saturday night
into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper level trough will continue to enhanced
shower and thunderstorm development mainly across the NW portions
of Puerto Rico. Most of these showers and thunderstorms will
quickly dissipate this evening or move west and over the Mona
Passage.

A subsidence area up front a strong tropical wave will generate a
dry and stable conditions across the local region on Saturday. A
strong tropical wave now located about 1100 miles east of Puerto
Rico will continue to move quickly west, at about 25 mph, and
reach the eastern Caribbean early Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms
could begin to affect the local area late saturday night due to
the large size of the leading edge. Models continue to suggest
large amounts of precipitable water associated to this wave,
suggested values of above 2.5 inches, therefore increasing the potential
for flooding to occur over isolated areas in PR and USVI. Also
another major impact associated to this weather feature will be
strong wind gusts mainly associated with thunderstorms and the
expected squally weather.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions across most of the terminals. Periods of
SHRA with possible VCTS expected for TJSJ. SHRA/TSRA and mtn
obscuration will continue across the interior and W PR with periods
of MVFR expected for TJMZ/TJBQ thru 22Z. Low level winds from the
east to southeast at 10-20 kts with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 15 kts expected across
the local waters today. Marine conditions will quickly
deteriorate on Saturday night as a strong tropical wave moves
quickly across the local waters. Mariners should expect squally
weather across all local waters. Showers and thunderstorms will
generate low visibilities, lightning, choppy seas and strong gusty
winds. These marine conditions will prevail through at least
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  87 /  30  30  60  60
STT  80  92  79  88 /  30  30  60  60

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 4 PM AST Sunday for
     Anegada Passage Southward to 17N-Atlantic Waters of Puerto
     Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N.

&&

$$

05/10


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