Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 031901
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE
AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGES AND LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL INHIBIT
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW THAT WILL STEER PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE ARE WELL INITIALIZE AND AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO STILL POSSIBLE. FOR MOST
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDS IN AND AROUND JPS/JMZ TIL 22Z. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS BECOMING 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS MOST
OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK DUE TO THE FAIRLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  84  74  86 /  30  30  10  10
STT  73  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

23/27




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