Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 301856
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PR
CURRENTLY AND EXPECT A LITTLE URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT THEY WILL BEHAVE THEMSELVES
AND EVEN DECREASE BEFORE 5PM AS THE CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING QUITE
EXPANSIVE...CUTTING OFF THE SOURCE OF HEAT.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL CREEP WEST
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE RIDGE AT THAT LEVEL SETTLES OVER EASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO MID-WEEK. SO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 500 MB IS
ALREADY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NO LONGER HELP IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER TODAY.

DRY ADVECTION TO KICK IN SUNDAY THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
BEGIN THE DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. EASTERLY TRADES WILL
RETURN ISLAND TO TYPICAL FAR WEST PR SHOWERS/THUNDER AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. EXTREMELY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES TUE BUT
WITHOUT MUCH WAVE DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SO
EXPECT THE NEXT WAVE OF NOTE TO ONE CURRENTLY HANGING BACK AT 30W
WHICH GFS EXPECTS TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT/FRI. IT LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE
ON SATELLITE AND LIMITED FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND W PR AFTER THRU 21Z...W/ISOLD TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ. VCTS
POSSIBLE NEAR TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THEN...PASSING
-SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND OVERNIGHT. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE 10-20 KTS UP FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 4 FT OR LESS AT BUOYS THOUGH WOULD
EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE WINDS HAS KICKED UP TODAY. BUT 5 FT APPEARS THE LIMIT IN
SHORT TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  79  89 /  40  30  30  30
STT  78  89  79  89 /  50  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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