Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 011508

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
908 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A mild southwest flow with lingering moisture will
remain over Utah into Sunday. A cold Pacific storm system will
cross the Great Basin early in the upcoming week.


.DISCUSSION...A subtle disturbance showing up in the 700mb wind
forecast by the GFS appears to be the culprit that is setting off
the showers over northern Utah this morning. UDOT cameras showing
some wet roads near Brigham City and 0.01 of an inch has been reported
so far at Logan in the Cache Valley. Updated morning forecast to
include scattered showers from Ogden north and isolated showers in
Salt Lake county and Tooele Valley for this morning.

Rest of forecast looks good for the remainder of the day with
increasing chance of rain showers across northwest Utah this
afternoon as the lobe of energy associated with the core of the
low over southwest Oregon extending into central Nevada lifts
northeast across northwest Utah this afternoon. GFS 500mb temps
cool by a couple of degrees and an inflection in the 700mb winds
shows a low level trough moving into northwest Utah by 00Z Sunday.
The surface trough also moves to a Brigham City to Dugway line by
00Z Sunday setting up a convergence zone which should become the focus
for widespread showers this evening. Considering PWs are 0.75 of
an inch over NW UT through today current forecast of likely pops
looks good across northern Utah this evening.

Elsewhere scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms looks
reasonable over the central mountains into the Uintas as terrain
heating should be sufficient to destabilize this rather moist air
mass. Drier air will be moving into southwest Utah with PWs
decreasing there and the threat of showers ending by midday.


.AVIATION...Southerly winds at the SLC terminal will be gusty
through much of today, with gusts greater than 30 mph possible
between 16 and 22Z. However, there is a 40 percent chance that
winds switch to the northwest around 22-00Z. There is also a 30
percent chance of showers/thunderstorms impacting the terminal
after 20Z, with gusty erratic winds as the most likely impact.





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