Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 252149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
349 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strengthening high pressure aloft across the Great
Basin will bring drier conditions and warm temperatures to the
region for the middle of the week. The next weather disturbance
to impact Utah will arrive Friday, with another impacting the area
on Sunday.


.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Saturday)...High pressure is starting to
rebuild over the forecast area this afternoon behind the weak
trough that moved through yesterday. Lingering moisture and
instability has allowed a fair amount of cumulus to develop over
the higher terrain but according to radar these clouds have not
developed into showers. Have removed any POPs for this evening as
the airmass should only get more stable. Temperatures are quite
mild over Utah and southwest Wyoming with maxes running in excess
of 5F above seasonal norms in most locations.

The ridge will continue to build tomorrow with the axis overhead,
resulting in dry and very stable conditions with light winds.
However, the axis will shift east of the area by tomorrow evening
as a Pacific storm system approaches the California coast.
Southerly flow will be on the increase on Thursday, resulting in
continued warming of the airmass along with some gusty winds.
Maxes Thursday afternoon are progged to run up to 15F above climo.

Global models indicate the storm system will track across
northern Utah on Friday bringing some cooler air and a quick shot
of valley rain/mountain snow. Have trimmed POPs a bit over
southern Utah as EC/GFS are increasingly indicating the precip
will be focused over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming.


.LONG TERM (After 00z Saturday)...Friday night the progressive
wave will be exiting to the northeast with showers ending during
the evening. This will aid in shunting the tropical plume of
moisture to our east.

The mean ridge amplifies once again overhead for Saturday ahead of a
gradually weakening closed low approaching from Oregon/Northern

The next system crosses the region Sunday bringing the next chance
of showers along with gusty southerly winds ahead of the system. The
arrival of a strong Pacific jet should provide dynamical support to
take advantage of the moisture advected in from the west. In
addition, unlike previous systems, it will bring a significant
cooling trend and a good opportunity for instability showers to

By Monday this system is progressing out of the region with showers
diminishing once again.

Models diverge with timing pretty significantly for a splitting
system, GFS Tuesday with European and Canadian slower on Wednesday.
GFS has more cold air with this system, but European and Canadian do
not, which right now is the preferred solution. The system appears
to be more moisture starved which also points to low impact once it


.AVIATION...Winds at the SLC terminal are expected to switch to the
west-northwest between 2130Z and 2230Z. These winds may initially be
light, but will probably increase to 7-9 knots around 23Z. Winds are
then expected to return to the southeast around 02-03Z. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail under clearing skies.




SHORT TERM...Traphagan
LONG TERM...Rogowski

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