Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 161546
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
946 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS UTAH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN OVER MUCH
OF UTAH THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPERIENCING SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE NORTHERN THIRD HAS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER.

MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS IMPACTING ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...BUT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH TODAY. WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED
MOISTURE ACROSS UTAH...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE THIS MORNINGS NORTHERN
WAVE PASSES.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
LINE GRAZING THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE
CWA IS STILL THURSDAY...WHEN MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA...AND ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS ARE PROVIDED BY A TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. PART OF THE FOCUS OF TODAYS FORECAST
WILL BE ON IF/WHEN/WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE WARRANTED
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL UPDATE AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE IF THIS NORTHERN
WAVE MOVES MORE SLOWLY THAN FORECAST...WHICH COULD MAKE ADDITIONAL
POPS NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z AND VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM VICINITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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