Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 302156
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
357 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weakening cold front will push across central and
southern Utah today. Strong high pressure aloft will follow for
the middle and latter portions of the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 18z Thursday)...High pressure continues to
build into the western CONUS this afternoon while the trough over
northern Utah pulls east of the area. Meanwhile, a closed low over
Arizona is slowly drifting south. A cold front/deformation axis
remains draped across southwest through east-central Utah and
provides a focus for convection this afternoon. These
showers/thunderstorms should wind down tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.

Otherwise, a drier and more stable airmass has settled into northern
and west-central Utah and southwest Wyoming. This is evident in
visible satellite trends where clouds over much of the northwestern
half of Utah have seen little in the way of vertical development.

The airmass will continue its drying trend as high pressure expands
into the Great Basin. Very little in the way of convection is
expected tomorrow and Wednesday. However, there will still be
sufficient 700mb cold advection to keep temperatures from warming
much if at all tomorrow, but expect warmer temperatures by
Wednesday.


.LONG TERM (After 18z Thursday)...Ridge will expand into, then center
over the forecast area for the long term period. Said ridge will be
the first prolonged high pressure event since February, and the
first of this warm season. Big take away regarding sensible weather
through the period will be the continuation of warm and dry weather,
with temps ramping into the low 90`s across the Wasatch Front and
upper 90`s across Utah`s Dixie. In many cases these temps will be
running some 10-15F degrees above normal.

Do have to follow model trends and evolution of yet another closed
low forecast to move onto the Cali coast late next weekend.
Currently globals suggest this feature will break the ridge down
during the days 7-8 period, though moisture will likely be starved
due to its translation from SW-NE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to continue at KSLC
today/tonight as drier air has moved into the region and confined
cumulus buildups to terrain well outside the airport vicinity.
Northwest to north winds around 10 kts with occasional gusts to
20kts are possible this afternoon, with the typical daily switch to
southeast breezes around 3-4z this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will build into the Great Basin for
the rest of the week. This will lead to a much drier pattern with
generally light winds. Much warmer temperatures will be in store for
the fire district by the second half of the week.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/Merrill/Van Cleave

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For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php


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