Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 310147
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
940 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REMAINING CONVECTION OVER THE LAND AREAS IS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY AREA. OTHER SMALL SHOWERS ARE OFFSHORE MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH. THE XMR AND MFL SOUNDING
CONTINUE TO SHOW WESTERLY LOWER LEVEL STEERING FLOW WIND TO AROUND
500 MB CHANGING TO NORTHEAST ABOVE. THE REGION IS STILL IN AN
UNSETTLED AREA OF WEATHER WITH THE SURFACE TO MID LEVEL LINGERING
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUING. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT INCREASED EVENING RAIN CHANCES. THE MODELS STILL INDICATE
THE CORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DRIFING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH W/SW FLOW BUT POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF PARTICULARLY AT TAMPA BAY AREA
AIRPORTS AND MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR ANY STORM
THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
W/SW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE TROUGH JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MEANDER A BIT NORTH OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE S/SW. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&



&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

CP/DN


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