Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 221953
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
253 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday)...
Mid/upper level trough will continue to amplify over the Gulf of
Mexico helping to develop an area of low pressure over the central
Gulf of Mexico. This low will drift east northeast along the stalled
boundary that extends into north Florida on Thursday. Deep moisture
and forcing will move into the region late tonight and Thursday
leading to increasing clouds and rain chances from northwest to
southeast during the period. Mid-level temperatures will be cool
enough, -10C to -12C, to allow for enough instability for a few
thunderstorms to develop. Overall it looks rather cloudy and
damp for Thanksgiving Day, especially across northern and central
Florida where the rain should arrive late tonight/Thursday
morning, while further to the south and east over the southern
interior and southwest Florida most of the rain will not arrive
until midday/afternoon. Temperatures tonight will remain in the
60s with highs on Thursday only climbing to near 70 northern
Nature Coast to near 80 degrees over the southern interior and
southwest Florida.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Thursday Night-Wednesday)...
A closed upper low sits over northern Quebec with deep troughing
extending south along the east coast into the central Gulf of
Mexico. Not a lot of change is expected through the period as the
trough moves slowly eastward into the western Atlantic by the
beginning of next week. Upper ridging moves in behind this trough
and extends from the Gulf of Mexico over the southeast U.S. On the
surface, models are in good agreement with a developing area of
low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico that will move eastward along a
frontal boundary to influence the weather late Thursday into
Friday. High rain chances (50-70% POPs) can be expected over the
region as this low moves across Florida. High pressure builds into
the area behind this low for the remainder of the period bringing
clearing conditions to the region. Temperatures will be slightly
below average through the middle of next week as the high pressure
filters in cooler air in the wake of the low pressure and frontal
boundary.

$$

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail into early tonight. Late tonight into
Thursday clouds and showers, and a few thunderstorms, will
overspread the area from northwest to southeast with some
MVFR/local IFR conditions anticipated at times.

&&

.MARINE...
A developing area of low pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico
will move east northeast across Florida Thursday into Friday. This
will bring an increase in winds over the Gulf waters, mainly from
Tampa Bay north tonight and Friday, with periods of cautionary
level winds possible. Conditions will improve Friday night into
Saturday as high pressure builds back in over the Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels with no
fire weather issues expected through the week as plentiful moisture
remains across the region. Some patchy fog will be possible late
tonight into early Thursday, especially across southwest Florida.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  67  75  66  75 /  50  90  70  60
FMY  67  80  67  77 /  20  70  40  50
GIF  64  77  64  75 /  30  80  60  60
SRQ  66  77  65  74 /  30  80  60  60
BKV  63  74  61  73 /  60  90  70  60
SPG  67  75  66  74 /  40  90  60  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn


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