Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 101456
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
956 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED STRONG JET STREAM FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. NWS RUSKIN WAS ON THE NORTH EDGE OF
THE JET WITH THE MORNING RAOB AT 150 KTS AT 41 KFT. PRECIP WATER
DOWN TO 0.43 INCH. GULF STRATOCUMULUS TO UNDERCUT STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT 6.5 KFT FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. BEACH
CAMS SHOWED POUNDING SURF SO HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT
RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH VFR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z.
OCCASIONAL BKN040-060 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM THE GULF.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO COME DOWN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...SEAS OF 6-9 FEET WILL TAKE A BIT MORE TIME TO COME
DOWN. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LAST IN A STRING HIGH DISPERSIONS.
HUMDITY TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BUT COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
FUEL MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE THE HUMIDITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  58  41  63  49 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  63  42  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  60  37  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  60  41  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  56  32  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  58  45  63  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-
     INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-SUMTER.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&
$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
MARINE...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT...99


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