Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 051938
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
338 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MCS THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR
IS INDICATING THAT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS MCS WILL HOLD TOGETHER
AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT COULD SEND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO THE REGION WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION
ALREADY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING IN CASE IT IS SLOWER TO DISSIPATE THAN
FORECAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL KEEP GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TURNING THE WINDS
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO BE A BIT HIGHER ON MONDAY THAN TODAY...AND 500MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN -9 AND -10C WILL MAINTAIN A DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANY REASON WHY SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WOULD NOT OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE
HELPS TO CLEAR OUT THE COAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY SE FLOW IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL
BE IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN A TUTT LOW WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOWERING POPS JUST A
BIT AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND IN THE 70S
EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY 00Z NEAR THE
COASTS...BUT COULD HANG AROUND INTERIOR SITES LIKE KLAL THROUGH
03Z OR SO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS NO MORE THAN 2 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  92  77  92 /  20  50  20  50
FMY  75  93  74  93 /  20  50  20  40
GIF  75  94  74  93 /  30  70  20  50
SRQ  75  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  30
BKV  72  93  72  93 /  20  50  20  50
SPG  78  92  79  92 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD


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