Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 010745
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN ELONGATED
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM INDIANA THROUGH THE TEXAS
GULF COAST...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA CONTINUE TO STIR OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS STILL DISPLACED SLIGHTLY EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC...THIS
SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND GRADUALLY
DRIFT NORTH AS IT DISSIPATES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY...PARTICULARLY FROM TAMPA
BAY AND THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT WEST FROM
THE ATLANTIC AND SETTLE IN OVER FLORIDA...WITH THE SURFACE BASED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOSING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ONCE THE ERIKA
REMNANTS WASH OUT. THIS WILL FAVOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN...WITH WEAK FLOW GIVING WAY TO AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING OVER THE INTERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WE WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY SEASONAL WEATHER
PATTERN...AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY AS SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS...AND BOUNDARIES MOVE
ASHORE. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE FLOW...EXPECT GREATER
CHANCES FOR STORMS EAST OF I-75 AND OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL
OCCUR...AS A WEAK UPPER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DEPICT A WEAK
UPPER LOW RETROGRADING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COASTAL REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH WILL DEEPEN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IN TERMS OF IMPACTS TO THE WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE
RULE FROM THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE EAST
COAST SEABREEZE WILL MOVE QUICKLY INLAND EACH AFTERNOON...COLLIDING
WITH THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE NEARER THE COASTAL REGIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-75 MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND SATURATED SOILS...AND THE NUMBER OF
RIVERS STILL EXPERIENCING FLOODING...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IN THIS EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN IS RELATIVELY HIGH. EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS TO PERSIST
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR/PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MOVE OVER
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETAKE CONTROL BY AROUND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF ERIKA) WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND GRADUALLY
WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT CREATE ENOUGH OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASES...IT WILL
BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THIS SUMMER...AND PARTICULARLY DURING
THE LAST 5 WEEKS OR SO...HAVE BROUGHT NUMEROUS RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD STAGES. THERE ARE CURRENTLY SEVEN
RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN FLOOD STAGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
TWO OTHERS ARE IN CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE. PLEASE VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/TAMPA AND CLICK `RIVERS/LAKES` ALONG THE RIGHT HAND SIDE
FOR UP TO DATE FORECASTS ON EACH RIVER FORECAST POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  90  78 /  50  30  40  30
FMY  92  77  92  77 /  50  30  50  30
GIF  91  76  93  76 /  50  40  60  40
SRQ  89  77  90  78 /  50  20  30  30
BKV  90  74  91  74 /  50  30  50  40
SPG  89  79  90  79 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...84/AUSTIN
DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.