Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 022325
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
625 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

.AVIATION (00z TAFs)...
VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Northeast winds
will become gusty by 14z to 15z Saturday, decreasing again by
sunset.

84/Austin

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 257 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight - Saturday)...
The cold front is now well south of our region leaving us with
sunny skies and much drier air.

A large ridge of high pressure will move from the mid Mississippi
Valley tonight to the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic coast by late
Saturday. The pressure gradient between the high pressure to our
north and the frontal boundary to our south with result in
enhanced easterly flow. Winds will start northeasterly and
gradually veer around more easterly as the high center moves by to
our north. Winds could be a bit gusty especially near the coast
this evening with the easterly surge.

Some mid and high-level cloudiness will move west to east across
the skies on Saturday, but not enough to preclude mostly sunny
conditions. some lower clouds may gradually work their way
westward across the state late in the day.

Temperatures tonight will bottom out in the mid 40s north, mid 50s
central, and near 60 our so right along the coast and far south.

Highs on Saturday will get back up into the middle 70s to near 80
north to south.

MID/LONG TERM (Saturday Night-Friday)...
Moderating trend Sunday into Monday as brief ridging nudges into
the region from the N Carib. High pressure slides into the
Atlantic with return flow increasing temps and moisture to above
normal conditions.

Upper closed low over the desert SW to open Sunday and lift starting
big changes early next week with progressive pattern bringing
unsettled weather to the area. Models are in fair agreement into mid
week but then differences abound.

Expect the stacked surface to upper low/trough with associated upper
dynamics to move through the Deep South with attendant cold front
sweeping through FL Peninsula Tuesday with showers and isolated
thunderstorms ahead of and along the front providing much needed
rainfall area wide.

Brief drying Wednesday as high pressure area quickly moves through
the region. Another cold front to move through the region with
rainfall Thursday. Cooler and drier high pressure conditions to end
the week, will continue to monitor to see just how cold the models
depict.

AVIATION...
No aviation concerns. Mainly clear skies next 24 hours with some
gusty northeast to easterly winds at times.

MARINE...
First concern is for an easterly surge overnight. Global models
are mostly showing 15 to 20 knot winds while some higher
resolution guidance is higher, in the 17 to 22 knot range. This
puts us right at the border between small craft exercise caution
statements and small craft advisories. Current plan is to use the
caution statement with a forecast of 15 to 20 knots and allow the
next shift to monitor trends and possibly upgrade for the next
forecast package this evening.

Another surge is likely Saturday night as the large surface high
center moves off the mid-Atlantic coast. Then winds become more
southeasterly Sunday night as the high moves out into the
Atlantic. Low pressure will develop near the Texas Gulf coast on
Monday and track quickly northeast toward the Ohio Valley Tuesday,
with some redevelopment off the mid-Atlantic coast likely Tuesday
night. This will drag another cold front across the waters on
Tuesday followed by High pressure building in from the northwest
on Wednesday.

Showers and Thunderstorms are likely to precede the front Monday
night and Tuesday with enhanced southerly winds. Conditions should
gradually improve Tuesday night and Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Humidities should be on the increase Saturday but still could see
some pockets of near 35 percent. Winds and ERC values will not
support red flag conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  78  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  62  81  64  82 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  55  77  61  80 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  55  79  63  81 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  49  76  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  60  76  64  79 /   0   0   0   0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
     Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Jillson
MID/LONG TERM...Davis

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  56  78  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  62  81  64  82 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  55  77  61  80 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  55  79  63  81 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  49  76  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  60  76  64  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
     Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$


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