Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 260828
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
328 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today and Monday)...
A fast zonal flow pattern has become established across the
southern tier of the CONUS this morning, as an upper trough
continues to lift northward into New England and eastern
Canada. A trailing cold front associated with this trough
continues to make southward progress across the northern
Gulf of Mexico and into northern Florida. Behind the front,
a strong surface high extends from the Great Lakes to the
northern Gulf Coast.

This morning, A fast moving cold front continues to shift
southward along the Nature Coast, bringing cooler and drier
air with it. The forecast is a bit tricky this morning as
recent observations show fog development ahead of the front.
Despite persistent light winds, adequate moisture pooling
near the surface will likely allow for fog to develop and
erode from northwest to southeast as drier air spills into
the peninsula. Morning lows will range from the low
60s/upper 50s south of I-4 to the low to mid 40s along the
Nature Coast, with widespread 50s elsewhere.

Post-frontal high pressure will build in for the remainder
of the day. With breezy northeast winds, it may feel a bit
chilly this morning as a relatively cool airmass will
continue to spill into the peninsula. This will knock
temperatures back to just a couple of degrees above normal
values for late February with highs generally in the 70s and
low 80s.

Tonight, high pressure will settle in to the north of the
region, allowing for at last some moisture advection off the
Atlantic Ocean. This will limit our potential cooling to
some extent, but temperature should fall into the 40s and
50s once again.

On Monday, high pressure will shift eastward, allowing for
southeasterly low level flow to develop. Adequate moistening
may have occurred for a spotty shower or two over interior
sections of the peninsula during the mid to late afternoon
hours. Otherwise dry conditions are expected. A broad but
intense upper ridge will begin to build northward from the
southern Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for much warmer
temperatures than on Sunday, with highs in the low to mid
80s over the entire area.

.MID/LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Strong mid/upper level ridge will be in place across the
Caribbean and eastern Gulf. At the surface, high pressure
centered over the Atlantic will keep east/southeast flow in
place across our area. This flow regime will keep the area
in a warm, muggy airmass through mid-week. H5 heights
nearing 590DM will support very warm afternoon temperatures
with low 80s across the Nature Coast with mid/upper 80s
expected elsewhere. Not out of the question that a few spots
hit 90 degrees on the last day of February and again to
start March.

On Thursday, upper-level troughing across the NE U.S. will
allow a cold front to shift south into the panhandle before
pushing through our area by Friday morning. This front will
be losing its mid/upper level support as it pushes through
the area but for now it looks like there should be just
enough moisture to include chance showers from the Bay Area
north Thursday evening. Wouldn`t be surprised to see models
back off a bit on rain chances in future runs but still have
a few more days to see how this plays out.

Behind the front, drier and "cooler" air will usher in for
Friday and into next weekend. I use the word cooler loosely
as temps will only cool down back to near normal for this
time of year but the airmass will certainly be drier making
it feel much more comfortable compared to earlier in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION (06z TAFs)...
Cooler drier air continues to move into the region behind a
passing cold front. Ahead of this front, adequate moisture
is present for patchy fog. Will maintain a threat of fog for
more fog-prone terminals through around 13z. As drier air
moves in behind the front, the threat of fog will diminish.
Winds will shift to the north and eventually northeast
through late morning, becoming gusty in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will shift southward across the waters through
the day, with cautionary to borderlined advisory level
winds and seas developing from north to south. Winds may
improve slightly during the mid to late afternoon hours, but
an easterly wind surge is expected overnight tonight into
early Monday, bringing another period of at least cautionary
conditions to the waters. Marine conditions will improve
markedly Monday into much of next week, as surface high
pressure settles in across the waters. This will allow for
light east/southeast winds shifting onshore each afternoon
with the seabreeze. A cold front looks to move through the
area Thursday into Friday, bringing increased chances of
marine showers and storms, and possibly heightened winds and
seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today as a
cold front ushers in a very dry airmass. Head of the front
patchy dense fog will be possible, but this should be rather
short lived as drier air moves in behind the front. The
presence of drier air and mild temperatures will bring
several hours of critically low humidities this afternoon,
from I-4 northward. Despite the prolonged period of low
humidities, ERCs and winds will remain borderlined for any
red flag headlines at this time. High pressure will shift to
our north tonight, allowing east to southeast winds to
transport Atlantic moisture into the region. This should
prevent humidities from nearing critically low values from
Monday through the remainder of the coming week. However,
fog may become a concern mid to late week as substantial
moistening occurs.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  59  82  65 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  83  64  84  66 /   0   0  10   0
GIF  77  57  84  65 /   0   0  20  10
SRQ  78  61  81  64 /   0   0  10   0
BKV  77  53  83  61 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  77  62  81  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/Austin
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...11/McKaughan


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