Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 042334
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
435 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday...Forecast area will remain beneath
northwesterly flow aloft as an upper level ridge builds along the
west coast. The cold air of the last few days continues to move
east as gusty westerly winds increase over the next few days along
with a warming trend back above seasonable averages. Variable
clouds aloft will prevail through the end of the week but the only
chance of any precipitation will be confined to the very highest
peaks of the Continental Divide in and around Glacier Park. The
only possibility for active weather of any sort will be along the
east slopes of the Rocky Mountains where downslope winds could
approach high wind criteria through favored canyons and passes due
to tight surface pressure gradients but mid and upper level winds
do not look favorable for any type of downslope windstorm activity
at this time. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...Period begins with weak shortwave
trof working its way through MT, bringing widespread clouds but only
expected precipitation will be light, occasional snow showers along
the Rocky Mtn Front and over parts of the central/southwest mtn
ranges.  Our region remains under northwest flow aloft through the
weekend, then gradually shifts more westerly as broad high pressure
ridge along the Pacific Coast moves into the Great Basin and
Northern Rockies. The portion of the ridge over MT and southern
BC/Alberta is flattened a bit on Mon/Tues as a deep Gulf of Alaska
trof begins to dig south along the BC coast.  Forecast models, which
had been in good agreement up to this point, diverge late Tues into
Wed with the GFS bringing a sharp cold front and widespread light
snow into the state, while the ECMWF keeps the low pressure system
along the West Coast, with the ridge and its dry conditions
persisting over MT.  Forecast grids lean more toward the EC solution
at this point, but do have a mention of slight chance for showers
along the Hiline and Rocky Mtn Front Wed aftn/eve.  Finally, the
dominant ridge pattern will produce above normal temperatures for
most of this forecast period, with upper 40s to mid 50s for weekend
and mid-upper 50s for early next week.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
VFR conditions will occur with ceilings near and above 15000 ft.
Gusty southwest winds 40 kts to near 50 kts can be expected near the
mouths of favored canyons of the Rocky Mountain Front late tonight
through Thursday. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19  45  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  19  45  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  17  47  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  11  43  21  51 /   0   0   0   0
WEY   3  34   8  39 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  14  46  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  13  46  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  15  44  28  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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