Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 162143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
240 PM MST Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry westerly flow will shut down precipitation
chances into Friday. A moisture increase from the south will
gradually bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms back to the
region this weekend and especially early next week. Temperatures
will hover within a few degrees of normal over the next week.


.DISCUSSION...Quite dry out there for the middle of August
with visible satellite imagery showing just a few cumulus popping
with the heat of the day and satellite-derived PWAT estimates of 0.6
to 0.9 inches across the CWA. Temperatures early this afternoon were
generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s for most locations, on the way
to right around average highs over the next couple of hours. Surface
dewpoints were anywhere from the low 40s to low 50s which translated
into relative humidities in the upper teens and 20s.

Our slight reprieve from monsoon action will continue through the
end of the work week with dry westerly flow securely in place.
Moisture will begin to increase this weekend under a more favorable
southerly flow as a trough of low pressure sets up off the coast of
California. This will help funnel in deeper moisture especially by
Monday and Tuesday of next week. The official forecast depicts this
trend with low-end slight chance category PoPs creeping across the
NM border Friday afternoon, mainly for the White Mountains and
Cochise County. This increases westward each afternoon, with
mentionable PoPs CWA-wide by Sunday afternoon and continuing into
next week.

Daytime temperatures will largely remain within a few degrees of
normal with Friday being the warmest day, although some more
noticeable moderation will occur with the additional cloud cover and
rain chances next week.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 18/00Z.
Mainly SKC through the period with only a few afternoon Cu near the
mountains. Normal diurnal wind trends generally less than 12 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry westerly flow aloft will shut down precipitation
chances into Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will then return this weekend into early next week. 20-foot winds
will generally be terrain driven at less than 15 mph apart from any
thunderstorms outflows.






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