Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTWC 120900
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES
PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THIS PUTS US IN PERFECT POSITION FOR A PEAK IN TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS TODAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON
AVERAGE...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE RECORDS MANY LOCATIONS.  THIS RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY FOR A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING THAT AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY WITH A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND TRIMMING THE AFTERNOON HIGHS FURTHER...BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL JUST NOT NEAR RECORDS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER FEATURE SLIDES SE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THEN
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRONGLY REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES...CRESTING OVER ARIZONA EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING RECORD LEVELS AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THAT MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH
WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST AROUND THURSDAY GIVE OR
TAKE...RESULTING IN COOLING TEMPS AND POSSIBLY A SMALL THREAT OF A
SHOWER IF WE ARE LUCKY.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/12Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER 10 KTS...FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...EXPECT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EASTERN AREAS
SEEING A BIT MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.