Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 011658
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
958 AM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
WILL THEN KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES COOLER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTER THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A LITTLE LATER START IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECTING A DECENT
COVERAGE IN STORMS TODAY ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY AVOIDING AREAS HIT THE
HARDEST LAST EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK IN
THE SHORT-TERM...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER
TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45
KTS MAY OCCUR WITH WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND WILL GE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A GOOD CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL BE DECENT RAINERS
WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-45 MPH RANGE...WHILE A COUPLE EACH DAY
WILL BE STRONGER. THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND RIDGE TO
OUR EAST WILL BE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE. WITH
TROPICAL ACTIVITY HEATING UP AGAIN OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
(HELLO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E...SOON TO BECOME KEVIN)...WE`LL HEAD
INTO SEPTEMBER WATCHING FOR TROPICAL INFLUENCES PUSHING UP FROM THE
SOUTH. AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL HELP ORGANIZE STORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THAT WE`LL SEE WHAT ELSE COOKS UP FOR
US FROM THAT GENERAL DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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