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000
FXUS63 KUNR 211005
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
305 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 304 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE
MAIN AXIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO EASTER MONTANA TO NEAR THE BLACK
HILLS INTO NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS...WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS BELOW
ZERO.

THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT
CHALLENGES WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
SD PLAINS...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE CWA NEAR KD07. TEMPS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW OVER WESTERN TO
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL SLIDE SE INTO THE CWA LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS A RESULT OF UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. OVERALL LITTLE
QPF EXPECTED WITH THIS PASSING WAVE...WITH JUST AROUND AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR TONIGHT WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS TO THE WRN SD PLAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECTED WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW TO 25 BELOW
ZERO...SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING
THROUGH FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SECOND UPPER WAVE. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BITTERLY COLD TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS ZERO TO 15 BELOW. WINDS AT THIS TIME
APPEAR TO BE LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WIND CHILLS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2013

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL POP UP OVER THE AREA MONDAY PUSHING A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES. UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE THEN DRIVES THROUGH THE AREA FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR -SN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SO ANY WAVE COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON THE SD
PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO NOTABLE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 304 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR -SN AND WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON