Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
935 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017

...Above normal spring flood potential for the Adirondacks, near
normal potential elsewhere in eastern New York and western New
England...

This is the eighth of a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by
the National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to the
potential for flooding across eastern New York State, southern
Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County
Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the Hudson,
Mohawk and Housatonic.

This outlook is valid for the two-week period from April 14th to
April 27th.

...OVERVIEW...

The two weeks since the last outlook have featured temperatures
between two and six degrees above normal, two to six inches of
precipitation and significant snow melt. Some minor flooding
occurred as a result, however some significant snowpack remains
in the high elevations of the Adirondacks, so the flood potential
there remains above normal.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

As a result of warm temperatures and rainfall, most of the outlook
area is now snow-free. The exceptions are the Adirondacks, where
high terrain snow pack of two to six inches, with about one half
to two inches of liquid equivalent, remains available to melt. A
few isolated spots are carrying as much as two to six inches of
liquid equivalent. The other exception to the snow-free assessment
is the northern Berkshires and southern Green Mountains, where
snow is also lingering at elevation, up to six inches above 1000
feet, with 2 inches of liquid equivalent.

...RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day
streamflow averages in western New England and eastern New York
are in the normal to above normal range.

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) groundwater wells,
groundwater levels continue to rebound, with most wells reporting
near to above normal levels, though a few wells have a ways to go
before they rebound back to normal levels.

Recent rainfall and snowmelt made a significant dent in long term
drought across western New England and eastern New York State,
with the latest Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from April 8
showing normal to moderately moist conditions across the outlook
area. This is an improvement from the last outlook two weeks ago,
when the March 25 PDSI mapped moderate to severe drought for most
of the outlook area.

...WATER SUPPLY...

Recent snowmelt and rainfall has filled reservoirs previously at
below normal levels across the outlook area.

New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP)
water supply reservoirs are at 99.8 percent of capacity, which is
the first time since these outlooks began in January that these
reservoirs were at above normal storage capacity.

Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoirs in the
Black River and Upper Hudson watersheds are all near to above
normal for this time of year.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

The current active pattern is expected to continue with a few
precipitation events over the next couple of weeks. The 6 to 10
day outlook for the 19th through the 23rd of April, as well as
the 8 to 14 day outlook for April 21st through the 27th, both
call for near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

...SUMMARY...

The flood potential for the Adirondacks is above normal where
snow remains in place at the highest elevations and the flood
potential elsewhere is near normal.

The ninth Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for Thursday, April
27th. Extended hydrologic information will be included in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook when necessary.

It is important to remember that heavy rainfall can produce
flooding at any time of year even in areas that have below normal
snowpack and no river ice.

Observed and forecast river information can be found on our web
page at www.weather.gov/albany. Ensemble forecast information can
be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs. A graphical depiction of
the flood potential by basin can be found at
www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential.


$$

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