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FNUS28 KWNS 222127

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Valid 241200Z - 021200Z

An active fire-weather pattern will continue through early next

At the start of the extended period, a quasi-zonal mid-level pattern
will be in place across the southern United States on the south side
of a very broad mid-level trough. Various smaller scale troughs will
move through this broader scale pattern through early next week,
when a much larger trough evolving over the southwestern United
States will amplify the overall mid-upper-level pattern.

At the surface, minimum afternoon relative-humidity values will fall
below 30% in the presence of dry fuels just about every day across
the south-central United States. This will set the stage for any
enhancement to the low-level flow resulting in critical fire-weather
conditions. At this time, critical fire-weather conditions are
likely across portions of the southern High Plains on Friday (Day 3)
as strong, gusty northwest winds develop in a post-frontal
environment. On Saturday, due to the absence of any discernible
mid-level perturbation, low-level flow should be weak enough to
temper the overall large-scale fire-weather threat.

By Sunday into Monday, the low-mid-level pattern across the
south-central United States will begin to respond to a
low-amplitude, fast-moving shortwave trough moving from the
southwest to central United States. This will result in an increase
in the potential for critical fire-weather conditions across the
southern Plains. This potential and areal extent on Monday may be
slightly less than on Sunday as the aforementioned shortwave trough
begins to weaken as it moves into more confluent mid-level flow
across the central United States.

Next Tuesday (Day 7) once again looks very active across the
southern Plains as a stronger, larger amplitude mid-level trough
approaches the central United States. At this time, critical
conditions are possible across a large part of the southern Plains,
extending as far north as central Kansas. At present, greatest
likelihood of experiencing critical fire-weather conditions exists
in a corridor from far southeast New Mexico northeast into southwest
Oklahoma. The location of this corridor will evolve over the next
few days, but the overall pattern suggests that the potential is
there for a higher end fire-weather event on Tuesday.

..Marsh.. 02/22/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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