Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 011914
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

VALID 031200Z - 091200Z

MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AMPLIFICATION OF A STRONG
TROUGH INTO THE NWRN CONUS/GREAT BASIN FOR MIDDLE/LATTER PARTS OF
THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE ENSUING DEEP TROUGH FORECAST
TO EJECT EWD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STRONG WIND-SPEED MAXIMUM ON
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SFC WINDS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN...WITH RH VALUES BECOMING LOW
IN SOME AREAS...AS DIURNAL MIXING STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS WILL
PROMOTE AN INCREASED FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL EACH DAY FROM D3/THU
THROUGH D5/SAT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN NV INTO WRN UT WHERE DRY
FUELS EXIST. MARGINAL AREAS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED TO ADDRESS THIS
SCENARIO. THERE WILL EXIST SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO ENSUE...AND THE ADDITION OF CRITICAL AREAS MAY BE
NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH YIELDS UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE RELATED FIRE-WEATHER RISK.

AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EWD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AREAS OF STRONG
SFC WINDS AND LOW RH MAY ALIGN OVER PARTS OF WY INTO ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SD AND NEB ON D6/SUN. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY GREATER MODEL
VARIABILITY REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AND ITS IMPLIED
FIRE-WEATHER RISK FOR D6/SUN...COMBINED WITH AREAS OF LESS-FAVORABLE
FUELS FOR FIRE SPREAD IN THIS REGION...PRECLUDE PROBABILISTIC
DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.

FOR D7/MON AND D8/TUE...THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LESS CONDUCIVE TO ENHANCED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS. LOW-AMPLITUDE...MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE NWRN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SUPPORT THE OVERLAP OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/SFC WINDS
WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH.

..COHEN.. 09/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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