Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 222033
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

A strong shortwave trough will likely move from the central Plains
northeastward into the upper MS valley on D3/Tuesday, while strong
mid/upper level flow (i.e. 100-110 kt at 500 mb) associated with
this system extends from the southwest northeastward through the OH
valley. Surface low attendant to this shortwave trough will take a
similar track into the upper MS valley while a cold front sweeps
across the central/southern Plains and lower/mid MS valley. Tight
surface pressure gradient ahead of the front coupled with the strong
flow aloft will support gusty conditions across portions of the
southern Plains. Sustained westerly winds above 30 mph are possible.
Above-average temperatures are also anticipated, with the resulting
combination of dry and windy conditions result in a potential fire
weather threat.

The fire threat may extend into the post-frontal environment across
portions of western and southern TX on D4/Wednesday. Overall pattern
is synoptically favorable and most recent guidance has shown an
increasing trend with wind speeds so went ahead and delineated a 40%
area from the Edwards Plateau southward into deep South TX.

By D4/Wednesday, the upper pattern will likely be characterized by
broad troughing extending from the Great Lakes southwestward to
southern CA. This broad trough is expected to gradually shift east
on D5/Thursday before a shortwave trough moving through its southern
periphery and a ridge building across the Pacific Northwest act in
tandem to amplify the pattern. This upper ridging is expected to
continue to build into the weekend while surface ridging builds
across the northern Great Basin. Resulting pattern is favorable for
offshore flow across southern CA but abundant rainfall and moist
fuels should temper any potential fire weather threat across the
region.

..Mosier.. 01/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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