Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 051627
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2016

VALID 051700Z - 061200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL AZ...

...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...AZ...AND FAR WRN NM...
THE ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NWD TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF NRN
AZ...WHERE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH THE FLAGSTAFF WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE...SOME AREAS OF SUFFICIENTLY DRY FUELS EXIST ACROSS
PARTS OF NRN AZ FOR ELEVATED DESIGNATION. HOWEVER...FUELS ARE NOT
DRY ENOUGH ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION IN THIS
OUTLOOK UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...WITH NO
CHANGES TO THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN AZ BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

...PORTIONS OF SRN GA INTO NRN FL...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

..COHEN.. 05/05/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0332 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH UPPER RIDGING PROMINENT ACROSS THE ROCKY MTNS AND
HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
CA. ONLY A SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ENHANCED LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS
MUCH OF AZ INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER
UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF SRN GA/NRN FL
THIS AFTERNOON.

...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...SRN/CNTRL AZ...AND FAR
SWRN NM...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SRN/CNTRL AZ. STRONG/GUSTY SLY TO SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH SHOULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMES MAXIMIZED AND ENHANCED WINDS ALOFT ARE TRANSPORTED TO THE
SFC. HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ACROSS THIS REGION...RH
VALUES SHOULD EASILY FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT...PERHAPS AS LOW AS 5
PERCENT LOCALLY. FUEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FINE FUELS WILL BE
RECEPTIVE TO FIRE STARTS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL AZ. SURROUNDING THE
CRITICAL DELINEATION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...A LARGER PORTION OF
AZ...AND FAR SWRN NM. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE ELEVATED DELINEATION IS
CONSTRAINED BY GENERALLY UNRECEPTIVE FUELS. AN EWD EXPANSION HAS
BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA IN SERN AZ...AS LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AREA WILL EXPERIENCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
AS LOCATIONS FURTHER W IN S-CNTRL AZ.

...PORTIONS OF SRN GA INTO NRN FL...
BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY TODAY...GUSTY NWLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA/NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DRY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THIS
REGION AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
FUEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FINE FUELS SHOULD BE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE
STARTS FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL OVER THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED
AN ELEVATED AREA WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...
LOWERED RH VALUES...AND DRY FUELS ARE EXPECTED.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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