Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 061634
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CST FRI MAR 06 2015

VALID 061700Z - 071200Z

...N-CNTRL KS AND EXTREME SRN NE...
16Z OBSERVATIONS REVEALED TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE QUICK WARM-UP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SHALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION ERODES WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE
EFFECTS HELPING TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S. ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SUPPORT RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE NRN PLAINS...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL
TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT WITH MODEST MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALSO IN PLACE. WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND THE ELEVATED
AREA INTRODUCED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

..MOSIER.. 03/06/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0308 AM CST FRI MAR 06 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED GENERALLY EAST OF THE
ROCKIES TODAY...WHILE RIDGING REMAINS SITUATED ALONG MOST OF THE
WEST COAST. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST AND EAST COAST...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OF THESE TRANSLATING OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES RESULTS IN
A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST. ADDITIONALLY...GREAT BASIN HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE CA COAST TO PRODUCE E/NELY FLOW ACROSS
SRN CA. WHILE DRYING WILL BE ENHANCED BY LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...A MARGINAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GENERALLY UNRECEPTIVE FUELS WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FIRE WX
THREAT.

...N-CNTRL KS AND EXTREME SRN NE...
A DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS /EVIDENCED
BY 00Z SOUNDING PWAT VALUES OF 0.1-0.2 INCHES/ WILL PROMOTE LOW RH
VALUES DURING THE DAY AS DOWNSLOPE WLY FLOW AND DIURNAL MIXING
ENSUE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 20 PERCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS /WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE/...AS
TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S. WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRES GRADIENT APPEARS
MARGINAL...DEEP MIXING AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL PROMOTE WINDS TO AROUND 15 MPH /WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS/. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF PCPN OVER THE LAST 1-2
WEEKS...DRY FINE FUELS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ENHANCED FIRE SPREAD.
AS SUCH...AN ELEVATED DELINEATION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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