Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 261850
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

No changes to the ongoing forecast are necessary. See below for more
details.

..Picca.. 07/26/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

...Synopsis...
The midlevel low/trough that has persisted for several days near
northern CA is expected to weaken and become absorbed into broad
southwesterly flow ahead of a strong cyclone over the northeast
Pacific. At the surface, in response to the ejecting system, low
pressure is expected to deepen slightly over portions of
Alberta/Saskatchewan and the northern Rockies/High Plains, with
generally weak surface features elsewhere across the CONUS.

...Northern OR into Central/Eastern WA...
Dry and breezy conditions are expected in the lee of the Cascades of
WA/OR on Thursday, in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Current
guidance suggests the potential for westerly winds of 15-20 mph and
minimum RH values of 15-25%, sufficient for an elevated fire-weather
risk. A modest increase in anticipated wind speeds would result in a
critical threat across the area, but at this time confidence in
sustained winds greater than 20 mph is too low for any upgrade.

...ID into Western/Central MT and Northwest WY...
Scattered thunderstorms are again expected as the aforementioned
ejecting system moves across the area. Forecast thermodynamic
profiles continue to suggest the potential for a mix of wet and dry
thunderstorm activity, resulting in some threat for ignitions in
areas of dry fuels.

...Northern/Eastern MT into the Western Dakotas...
A modest increase in surface winds is possible across portions of
northern/eastern MT into the Western Dakotas, in response to
developing low pressure over portions of AB/SK. Meanwhile, with
low-level moisture expected to remain rather limited, strong heating
could result in near-critical RH values during the afternoon. These
factors could result in elevated fire weather conditions over
portions of the region. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains
regarding the strength of low-level flow across the area, so no
elevated delineation has been made at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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