Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 261652
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...WRN KS...FAR SE CO...
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND MIXING WITHIN A WARM AND DRY ENVIRONMENT PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S /20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE/. MIN RH VALUES FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA BUT SOME SUB-20 PERCENT RH VALUES ARE
POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 20 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IN
TANDEM WITH THE LIKELY DRYING OF FINE FUELS ON MONDAY SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND AN ELEVATED THREAT AREA WAS ADDED
WITH THIS UPDATE. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO AMA...MOIST FUELS
PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF ANY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE KS BORDER.

..MOSIER.. 01/26/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0305 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT E/NE ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DE-AMPLIFIES AND CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FARTHER
WEST...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS ONSHORE THE PAC
COAST AND TRANSIT EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RESULTANT SFC PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE MATURATION OF A
POWERFUL COASTAL CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE LONG ISLAND/SERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS TO THE EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW. AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS...SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL INCREASE IN CONCERT WITH A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL MIXING AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S AND MIN RH VALUES NEAR 20-25
PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH...GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE OVERLAP OF LOW RH VALUES AND STRONGER WINDS. AT
THE LEAST...LOCALIZED ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE -- ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SWRN KS/OK PANHANDLE -- AS FINER FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY...AND
LATER FORECAST UPDATES MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO AN ELEVATED
DELINEATION.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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