Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGUS74 KFWR 291559
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1059 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

                   VALID MARCH 29 THROUGH APRIL 3

...ONE ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE WGRFC AREA...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A closed low pressure system has moved into the WGRFC area this
morning and is located near Lubbock.  This low initially affected the
western parts of the WGRFC area.  Rain and snow showers occurred over
most of New Mexico and southern Colorado, and this precipitation is
forecast to end later today. Further east, thunderstorms developed
over the Texas panhandle and west Texas Tuesday and experienced
significant convective storm activity.  Rainfall amounts of over 3
inches fell near Ralls TX, with 1 to 3 inches noted across much of
west Texas.  As the upper level system moved eastward last night,
widespread showers and thunderstorms fell across central Texas, and
now the line of thunderstorms extends across east and southeast
Texas.  Around 2.50 inches of rain fell around Bastrop and Cedar
Creek.  As this low passes across Oklahoma and Kansas tonight there
may be some wrap-around rain over extreme north Texas, but the
thunderstorms over east Texas and western Louisiana will end.  These
areas could see 0.50 to 1.00 inch of rain before the system moves
east tonight.  Behind the low dry weather will return to the WGRFC
area.

There will be a temporary break from the precipitation for most of
Thursday into Friday morning.  But another storm system is forecast
to develop west of the four corners region before noon Friday.  This
will begin to spread rain and high elevation snows to extreme
northern New Mexico and southern Colorado Friday through Saturday.
Then this storm system is forecast to move over New Mexico and bring
another round of showers and thunderstorms to Texas starting Saturday
and continuing through Sunday.  This closed low pressure system is
forecast to move east over Arkansas Monday so the rainfall over the
WGRFC area will end.

While mainstem river flooding is not likely from today`s storm
system, the next storm late Saturday, Sunday and early Monday may
produce some flooding.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast over the eastern
third of Texas into Louisiana, and from extreme northeast New Mexico
and extreme southeast Colorado into the Texas panhandle.  The
heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of up to 2.00 inches, are forecast
across the Arklatex northeast of Shreveport LA.  MAP amounts of
less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over all of northern and
eastern Texas, northeast New Mexico and eastern Colorado.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over southwest Colorado, as well as over extreme
northwest New Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
or more are forecast across southern Colorado.  MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 of an inch are forecast from northern and western New
Mexico into Colorado, as well as over the northern Texas panhandle.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast over the eastern three quarters of Texas into
Louisiana, as well as over northeastern New Mexico and southern
Colorado. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of up to 3.00 inches,
are forecast over east central Texas into the northern half of
Louisiana.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast
over most of the WGRFC area except for parts of deep south Texas,
far west Texas and southern New Mexico.

Unseasonably warm, dry conditions earlier this March have caused
continued soil moisture loss in many areas. This was indicated in
the last U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas which showed the area
considered to be abnormally dry at 47%.  Also, 9% of Texas was
experiencing moderate drought conditions and 1% was in severe
drought. In New Mexico the Drought monitor shows 56% of the state
experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with around 7% in the
moderate drought category.  The rainfall of the past 24 hours has
aided in bringing some new topsoil moisture.  As a result, the
rainfall forecast the next five days may generate some runoff over
primarily eastern Texas into western Louisiana.  But due to the
lighter rainfall amounts forecast elsewhere, no significant runoff
is expected outside of east Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Moderate to isolated areas of heavy rainfall is forecast mainly
across southeast Texas Wednesday before moving east of the region.
Another storm system is forecast to move into Texas this weekend
bringing moderate to heavy rainfall across the region.  Rivers are
currently at or near baseflow conditions.  WGRFC will continue to
monitor this situation.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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