Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 271450
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
949 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2017

                   VALID JULY 27 THROUGH AUGUST 1

...THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE WITH MONSOONAL ACTIVITY OUT
WEST...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across New Mexico and
Oklahoma morning. This activity is associated with some monsoonal
moisture combined with a weak cold front stretched from New Mexico
to Oklahoma. Rainfall amounts have been averaging less than
0.25 inch per hour. No river concerns are expected with this
activity.

Monsoonal activity in our western and southwestern forecast areas
will dominate the weather through the current forecast period.
Moisture will continue to be abundant across New Mexico
and southern Colorado the next several days, which means
persistent rains for this area.

Elsewhere, a weak cold front is expected to move into North Texas
on tomorrow and eventually into Central Texas early Saturday.
In addition, the ridge of high pressure that has been dominating
our weather for the past week, will slowly shift to the west.
As a result, portions of North and East Texas will be placed in
a northwesterly flow pattern, which will also bring increased
precipitation chances to the area next week.

Nevertheless, significant river flooding is not expected with this
precipitation.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 1.00 inch or less are forecast for portions of
New Mexico and Colorado.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00 inch or
less are forecast for portions of New Mexico, Colorado and
North Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00 inch
or less are forecast for portions of New Mexico and Colorado.


For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 2.00 inches
or less are forecast for portions of New Mexico and Colorado.


The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 26%, and roughly 8% of Texas is
experiencing moderate (or worse) drought conditions. In New Mexico,
27% of the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with
about 7% of the state in the moderate drought category.  Due to the
lack of excessive rainfall in the forecast we are not anticipating
significant runoff the next five days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
No widespread river flooding is expected over the WGRFC area during
the next 5 days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

MCCANTS


$$





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