Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 281739
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

                 VALID DECEMBER 28 THROUGH JANUARY 2

...THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WGRFC AREA TODAY,
THEN ANOTHER LARGE STORM IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The upper level low pressure system which has been influencing our
weather for the past 72 hours is located over west Texas this
morning.  The snow which was falling over New Mexico and Colorado
ended the past 24 hours.  But as the low began to move eastward,
the precipitation associated with this storm spread east to cover
southern New Mexico and most of Texas.  Showers and a few
thunderstorms developed over especially eastern Texas and western
Louisiana, and parts of this region received up to 2.00 inches of
rain.  More rain is expected as the low pressure trough moves across
Texas today before exiting the WGRFC area into Louisiana later
this evening.  Basin averaged rainfall should be generally under 1
inch, with the heaviest rain being over southeast Texas and western
Louisiana.

Dry weather is forecast across most of the WGRFC area from later
tonight through Monday as a zonal flow aloft develops.  But by Tuesday
morning a new, larger low pressure system is forecast to develop over
Utah and Nevada.  This low may begin to spread more precipitation
over portions of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado Tuesday.
This low will initially be a slow moving system, thus the heaviest
precipitation will be confined to southern Colorado.  Then on
Wednesday the low pressure system will deepen over southern
California.  As this occurs some moisture will return northward
from the Gulf of Mexico.  Light precipitation may develop over Texas,
with the heaviest rain expected over deep south Texas.

By Thursday morning the upper air low pressure system will start
moving very slowly eastward and will be located over Arizona.  Light
precipitation should become pretty widespread over the WGRFC area
ahead of this low to begin 2015, and this precipitation is forecast
to continue into Friday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for southeastern Texas and
most of Louisiana.  Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the
southeastern third of Texas, the remainder of Louisiana, and
southwestern Colorado.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for Colorado and northern New Mexico.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for deep south Texas.  Lighter MAP amounts are forecast
for much of south Texas, northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for the southeast two thirds of Texas, most of
Louisiana, western New Mexico and southwestern Colorado.  The
heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over
extreme east Texas and western Louisiana over and just southwest of
Shreveport LA.  Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the rest of
the WGRFC area of responsibility.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (43%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of
the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%) and 4% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Outside of southeast Texas,
soils are generally dry enough so that the forecast rainfall will not
generate runoff.  However, the rainfall may be heavy enough to produce
minor runoff over southeast Texas and western Louisiana during the
next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Recent storms have left the soils wet over the lower portions of the
Neches.  Storms are passing over the area with enough intensity to
generate minor runoff.  Pine Island Bayou near Sour Lake (SOLT2) is
forecast to reach action stage in the next couple of days.  Updates
will be provided as conditions change.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remaining WGRFC river systems are below criteria levels.
No significant flooding is expected over the next several days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$





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