Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 101423
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
922 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

                    VALID JULY 10 THROUGH JULY 15

...ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO SOUTH TEXAS, MONSOONS
CONTINUE DAILY DEVELOPMENT OUT IN NEW MEXICO...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Onshore flow has developed over south Texas pushing Gulf moisture into
Texas with welcomed precipitation. Totals have been light overall,
with widespread totals around a quarter of an inch.  However, for this
severe drought area all precipitation is a sign of releif especially
this time of year.  Out in New Mexico, monsoonal flow continues to
develop in the afternoon bringing quarter to half inch precipitation
over much of the state as well as southern Colorado.

A strong ridge continues to push slowly eastward and now resides
centered over the western plains.  This will contribute to a consistent
warm and dry patter over much of Texas for the rest of the week into
the weekend. Coastal regions will be subject to sea breeze convection
with isolated showers for areas near the coast. This area has shifted
south from Houston to Brownsville over the past day, and is expected
to impact the more southern areas of Texas later today.

As the ridge passes further east, upper and mid level wind will draw
a consistent stream of moisture from the Pacific to maintain a good
supply of water for areas of day time heating and upsloping in high
gradient terrain.  Isolated areas of locally heavy rainfall area
possible where terrain effects are more dominant.  As each day
progresses, some areas of Western New Mexico, Southern Colorado, and
North Central New Mexico could see beneficial rainfall totals.

The monsoonal activity is almost expected this time of year, making
it difficult to break the drought situation in New Mexico as the
average is higher this time of year.  However, right now any
rainfall is beneficial to an area that has seen very little so far
this year.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of nearly an inch of onshore flow is forecasted for parts of
Mexico near the Rio Grande border.  0.25 to 0.5 inches of MAP are
forecasted for much of deep south Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches of MAP
are forecasted for parts of New Mexico by WPC, this area should be
larger depending where the monsoonal activity is focused.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches of MAP is
forecasted for southern Colorado.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of near an inch are
forecasted for the rockier terrain regions of northern New Mexico and
southern Colorado.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 5% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 86% of New Mexico and
37% of Texas.  During the next 5 days the rainfall will not be heavy
enough to produce runoff due to the dry antecedent soil moisture
conditions for Texas.  Expected rainfall over the next 5 days could
produce some runoff over New Mexico.  Mainstem river flooding is not
expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
WGRFC will continue to monitor monsoonal rainfall occuring and forecasted
daily in the upper Rio Grande basin in southern Colorado and northern New
Mexico through the week.  Elsewhere in WGRFC, rainfall forecasted in the
next five days will not cause mainstem river flooding.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


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