Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 270007
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
707 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...DVLPG LOW PRES CNTRD NEAR 37N 72W WILL PASS NE ACROSS
THE NRN NT2 WTRS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...WHILE INTENSIFYING AND
PULLING A COLD FRONT E ACROSS THE NT2 AREA. THIS STG LOW WILL
DRIFT NE ACROSS THE NT1 AREA TUE AND TUE NITE...THEN MOVE OFF TO
NE WED INTO WED NITE...WHILE PULLING A SERIES OF TROFS SE ACROSS
THE NRN NT1 WTRS. A HI PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE COAST WED
NITE...THEN PASS E ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE
WKNG. ANOTHER DVLPG LOW WILL PASS E ACROSS THE NT1 AREA FRI INTO
FRI NITE...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NE SAT AND SAT NITE AS A STG LOW.
THE LOW WILL PULL ANOTHER COLD FRONT E AND SE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS
LATE THU NITE INTO FRI NITE. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OFSHR SAT
AND SAT NITE.

MODELS...THE MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE
OFSHR WTRS DURING THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT THE ECWMF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE FIRST DVLPG LOW OVER THE TONITE THRU WED NITE
TIMEFRAME...AND THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE SECOND DVLPG
LOW DURING THE FRI THRU SAT NITE PRD. THE GFS HAS SHOWN VRY GUD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND THE GFS 30M LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE ENUF
TO BE USED FOR THE WIND GRIDS THRU THE FCST PRD IF IT IS TIME
SHIFTED AND SLOWED DOWN BY 3 HRS LATER IN THE FCST PRD. AM NOT
PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND.

.SEAS...THE SOMEWHAT HIGHER ECMWF WAM INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE
MULTIGRID WW3 MDL...SO WILL USE A 66/33 BLEND OF THE ECMWF WAM/MWW3
FOR TONITE THRU WED NITE. WITH SMALLER DIFFS SHOWING UP BTWN
THESE TWO MDLS FOR THU THRU SAT NITE...WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE TWO MDLS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...FOR TONITE INTO TUE IN THE
STG E NE PRES GRDNT FCST N OF A DVLPG STORM...BOTH THE ESTOFS AND
ETSS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FCSTG VRY SIGNIF POS SURGE VALUES IN THE
3.5 TO 4.5 FT RNG TO DVLP ALONG THE COAST FM NEW JERSEY INTO THE
SW GULF OF MAINE.WOULD FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ESTOFS VS THE
ETSS FOR THIS SURGE EVENT.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT INTO TUE.
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT INTO TUE.
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     STORM TONIGHT.
     GALE TUE.
     STORM TUE NIGHT.
     GALE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TODAY INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TODAY INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TODAY INTO TUE.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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