Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 250657
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
257 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 00Z MDLS OVERALL SHARE SMLR FCST
TIMING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FM THE NW TODAY...PUSH
SE ACROSS THE NT1 WTRS LATE TONITE/TUE...AND THEN INTO THE NRN NT2
WTRS TUE NITE. THE MDLS CONT TO FCST THE STRONGEST ASCD WINDS
(GNRLY UP TO 15-20 KT...OR 25 KT AT MOST) WITH THIS FROPA TO DVLP
IN THE SWLY PREFRONTAL GRADIENT TO ACRS THE NRN/CNTRL NT2 WTRS
TONITE/TUE. THEREFORE AS WAS DONE FOR THE PREVIOUS OFSHR FCST
PACKAGE...PLAN ON POPULATING OUR FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE
REPRESENTATIVE 00Z GFS 10M BL WINDS FOR TODAY THRU TUE NITE WHICH
WL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHNGS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 00Z MDLS IN GNRL AGREE THAT THE COLD
FRONT WL BCM QSTNRY ACRS THE NRN/CNTRL NT2 WTRS WED INTO THU NITE
WITH PRHPS A WEAK SFC LOW(S?) TRACKING NE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
ASCD GRADIENTS REMAINING WEAK (WITH MAX ASCD WINDS GNRLY IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE). FURTHER N THE 00Z GLOBAL MDLS WITH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOW FCST A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOV OFSHR INTO THE NT1
WTRS THU NITE...THEN WEAKEN FRI. WITH THE MDLS STIL FCSTG WEAK
ASCD WINDS...THE 00Z GFS 10M BL WINDS STIL LOOK TO BE
REPRESENTATIVE AND HENCE WL CONT TO POPULATE WITH THESE WINDS ON
WED THRU THU NITE.

BY LATE FRI INTO FRI NITE THE DISPARITY INCREASES BTWN THE 00Z
 GLOBAL MDLS. WHL THE OTHER GLOBAL MDLS FCST THE QSTNRY FRONT TO
WASH OUT...THE 00Z GFS FCSTS THE FRONT TO PERSIST WITH A MR SIG
SFC LOW THAN ITS PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLC COAST ON THE FRONT FRI NITE. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN INDICATES THAT
THE 00Z GFS IS LKLY SMWHT TOO STRONG WITH THIS FRONTAL LOW AND
ALSO TOO FAR S. THEREFORE SINCE THEIR SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO THE
LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND AS A COMPROMISE...WL
TRANSITION TO POPULATING WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z UKMET BL WINDS FOR FRI/FRI NITE.

.SEAS...OVERALL THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM MDLS HV
BOTH INITIALIZED THE CURRENT SEAS VERY WELL (GNRLY WITHIN ONE FT
VS THE LATEST SFC OBS). WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING FAVORED...PLAN ON
POPULATING OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH ALL 00Z WAVEWATCH III FOR
TODAY THRU THU NITE...WHICH OVERALL ARE NOT SIGLY DIFFERENT THAN
THE 00Z ECMWF WAM FCST SEAS. THEN SINCE THE 00Z ECMWF WL BCM
FAVORED...WL THEN TRANSITION TO POPULATING WITH ALL 00Z ECMWF WAM
FCST SEAS FOR FRI/FRI NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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