Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 271241
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
841 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NE TO SW ACROSS THE NT1 AND NRN
NT2 WTRS WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NT2 AREA TODAY. A DVLPG LOW WILL
FORM ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVNG...PASS NE OVER THE NT2 WTRS TONITE
INTO SAT WHILE INTENSIFYING...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NE LATE SAT AND
SAT NITE. A TROF WILL DVLP OVER THE NRN NT2 WTRS SAT NITE...THEN
PASS SE OF THE NT2 WTRS LATE SUN INTO SUN NITE. A HI PRES RIDGE
WILL BUILD OFSHR SUN...THEN PASS SE ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS SUN NITE
INTO EARLY MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND SE ACROSS THE
OFSHR WTRS MON INTO EARLY TUE. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL PASS E OVER THE
AREA TUE INTO TUE NITE. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE SE AND APRCH THE
LONG ISLAND AREA TUE NITE.

MODELS...THE MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE
OFSHR WTRS INTO SUN NITE...SO THE REPRESENTATIVE GFS 10M SOLN WILL
BE USED TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. GEM/GFS 30M
ARE A BIT STGR THAN ECMWF/UKMET WITH A TROF OR SECONDARY COLD FNT
MOVG SE ACROSS THE NRN NT2 WTRS ON SUN. GEM/GFS ARE SLOWER AND
STGR THAN ECMWF/UKMET WITH A NRN STREAM LOW PROGRESSING OVER
QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN NITE THRU MON NITE. THERE
ARE SOME MAINLY MINOR TIMING DIFFS BTWN THE GFS AND ECMWF/UKMET
FOR TUE AND TUE NITE...BUT OVERALL THESE MDLS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMNT. GEM IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN OUTLYER SOLN FOR TUE AND TUE
NITE BECAUSE IT IS MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER S WITH A LOW THAT THE
OTHER MDLS ARE TAKING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA. FOR MON THRU
TUE NITE WILL BE GOING WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...SINCE
THESE APPR TO BE THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE AND CONSISTENT MDL SOLNS
FOR THIS PRD. AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FCST TREND.

.SEAS...THE MULTIGRID WW3 MDL INITIALIZD WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS.
THE MWW3 MDL LOOKS GOOD INTO SUN NITE...SO THIS GUIDANCE WILL BE
USED FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. THEN WILL USE A
50/50 BLEND OF THE MWW3/ECMWF WAM FOR THE GRIDS FOR MON THRU TUE
NITE...TO MATCH UP WITH THE PREFERRED ATMOS MDLS FOR THIS PRD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS IS FCSTG A NEG SURGE
OF 1.0 TO 1.5 FT ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY AND TONITE...THEN
DIMINISHING SAT. ESTOFS HAS ANOTHER NEG SURGE UP TO 1.0 FT ALONG
THE MID ATLC COAST MON. THE ETSS HAS CORRESPONDING NEG SURGE VALUES
OF 1.0 FT OR LESS.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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