Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 111346
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
846 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

ONGOING GRIDS FROM THE NIGHT SHIFT LOOK TO BE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE
THIS MORNING. 06Z GFS/30M WINDS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO PREV
PREFERRED 00Z GFS AND SEE NO REASON TO UPDATE THE NEAR TERM AT
THIS TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD: LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST FRI NIGHT AND
RACE QUICKLY NE WHILE INTENSIFYING. WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH UPCOMING
12Z GUIDANCE BUT STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP S OF THE LOW BEFORE
IT CLEARS E OF THE OPC AOR. DEPARTING LOW WILL HELP PULL AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS SPILLING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
YET OF THE SEASON OVER THE NT1 AND NT2 REGIONS. HIGH CONFID THAT
STRONG GALES TO 45 KT WILL DEVELOP IN THE CAA. MON INTO TUE THE
SRN STREAM WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN AS A S/W TROF
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN USA...DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRES
ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. REALIZING THE S/W HASNT MOVED INTO THE PAC
NW YET...NOT SURPRISING THAT LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OR
AGREEMENT AMONG 00Z MODELS OR ENSEMBLES AT THIS TIME. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE MON INTO TUE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OVER THE SHORT TERM...AN EARLIER 0223Z HI RESOLUTION ASCAT-B
SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THAT GALES WERE PRESENT IN THE
STRONG WLY GRADIENT ACRS THE NT2 WTRS PRIMARILY S OF 34N AND E OF
THE GULF STREAM. AS THE NEW 00Z MDLS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FCSTG
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF UPR S/W TROFS TO MOV ACRS NEW ENGLD
TODAY...THEN PASS E ACRS THE NRN WTRS TONITE...MULTIPLE ASCD SFC
LOWS WL MOV E OF THE OFSHR WTRS WHL HIGH PRES BLDS TWDS THE MID
ATLC COAST. AS A RESULT THE MDLS GRNLY AGREE THAT THE STRONG WLY
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NEWD TODAY AND TONITE WITH GALES SPREADING NWD
INTO THE NT1 WTRS. SO AS WAS DONE FOR THE PREV OFSHR FCST
PACKAGES...PLAN ON POPULATING OUR FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE 00Z GFS
30M BL WINDS FOR THIS GRADIENT TODAY INTO TONITE WHICH WL RESULT
IN NO SIG CHNGS TO THE PREVLY FCSTD GALE WRNGS.

THEN FRI THE 00Z MDLS SHARE SMLR FCST TRACKS FOR A DVLPG SFC LOW
TO MOVE NE OFF THE SE COAST...THEN RACE NE ACRS THE CNTRL NT2
WTRS FRI NITE. IN RGRDS TO THE FCST STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...SMLR
TO ITS PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS...THE 00Z GFS CONTS TO FCST THE
STRONGEST SOLUTION...WHICH IS SPRTD BY ITS 00Z GEFS MEAN...WITH SM
STORM FORCE ASCD 30M BL WINDS FCST TO DVLP ACRS THE SE MOST NT2
WTRS FRI NITE. BUT WITH ALL OF THE OTHER 00Z GLOBAL MDLS FCSTG A
WEAKER SYSTEM...BELIEVE A COMPROMISE WULD WORK OUT BEST FOR NOW.
THEREFORE TO GET THIS COMPROMISE...WL POPULATE WITH A 50/50 BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS 30M AND 12Z ECMWF BL WINDS FRI INTO FRI NITE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...IN THE STRONG NWLY GRADIENT IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ASCD WITH THE FRI/FRI NITE SFC LOW...BY FCSTG A STRONG
CLOSED UPR LOW TO ROTATE ACRS NEW ENGLD AND THE NRN WTRS SAT/SAT
NITE...THE 00Z MDLS ALL FCST A SCNDRY SURGE OF THE STRONGEST COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND MOST IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVE STATIC STABILITY OF THE
WINTER SO FAR TO OVERSPREAD THE WTRS SAT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
SUN. OVERALL WULD FAVOR A BLENDED 00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THIS STRONG NWLY GRADIENT. THEREFORE AS WAS DONE PREVLY...PLAN ON
CONTG TO POPULATE WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS 30M AND 12Z
ECMWF BL WINDS FOR SAT THU SUN NITE...BOOSTED UP 10 PERCENT DURING
THE PEAK NEGATIVE STATIC STABILITY LATE SAT INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

THEN LATE MON/MON NITE...THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE NOW MR
PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS AND THE 00Z GFS/GEM
WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVG TWDS THE SE COAST. WITH
THE 00Z GEFS MEAN SPRTG THE LESS PROGRESSIVE 00Z GFS...AND TO BE
MR IN LINE WITH THE LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...FOR NOW WL
GO AHEAD AND FAVOR THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION (WHICH IS ALSO CLOSER TO
THE OLD 12Z ECMWF). SO WL TRANSITION TO POPULATING WITH ALL 00Z
GFS 10M BL WINDS FOR MON/MON NITE.

SEAS...THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM HV OVERALL BOTH
INITIALIZED WELL. THEREFORE WL POPULATE OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH
50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO MDLS FOR TODAY THRU SUN NITE. BUT IN THE
STRONG NWLY GRADIENT SAT INTO SUN NITE...BELIEVE THE 00Z WAVEWATCH
III IS UNDERFCSTG THE SEAS...SO SMLR TO THE THE FCST WINDS WL
BOOST UP THE BLENDED SEAS BY APPROX 10 PERCENT LATE SAT INTO SUN
NITE. THEN WL TRANSITION TO ALL 00Z WAVEWATCH III FCST SEAS FOR
MON/MON NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...IN THE WLY GRADIENT FCST
TO SHIFT NWD TODAY INTO TONITE...AND THEN AGAIN IN THE STRONG NWLY
GRADIENT FCST TO DVLP SAT INTO SUN...SMLR TO ITS PREV RESPECTIVE
RUNS THE 00Z ESTOFS CONTS TO FCST HIGHER NEGATIVE SURGES TO DVLP
THAN FCST BY THE 00Z ETSS. STIL BELIEVE A COMPROMISE BTWN THE TWO
MDLS WL LKLY WORK OUT BEST.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE FRI.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER COLLINS/VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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