Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
AGXX40 KNHC 141950
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

A BENIGN COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL AND
YUCATAN CHANNEL OVERNIGHT...WITH REMNANTS OF W END OF BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA NNW TO EXTREME SE TEXAS. FRESH RETURN
FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS W HALF AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS...WITH SEAS
NOW 4-6 FT NW AND AROUND 4 FT NE. FRESHENING ENE FLOW NOW BLOWING
THROUGH THE STRAITS AND VEERING SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES N OF YUCATAN
CHANNEL. SEAS LIKELY 5-6 FT AND BUILDING THERE. STRONG HIGH PRES
BEHIND FRONT ACROSS MID ATLC STATES WILL SHIFT ENE INTO ATLC
TONIGHT TO PRODUCING VEERING FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...WHILE WARM
FRONT ACROSS SE TEXAS SHIFT EWD INTO SW LA AND FLOW ACROSS NE
PORTIONS BECOMES SSE NEAR 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NEXT COLD FRONT REACHING THE TX/LA COAST MON
EVENING AND SHIFTING ESE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS AND FL PANHANDLE
BY TUE MORNING AND THAN FROM STRAITS TO TAMPICO AREA BY WED
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS TO
GENERALLY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT THROUGH WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

OLD FRONTAL REMNANTS APPEAR TO LINGER FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO
EXTREME NE HONDURAS ATTM...WITH RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWING BROAD
AREA OF 20-25 KT PREVAILING THROUGH WINDWARD PSG AND NW OF THIS
BOUNDARY TO ABOUT 85W. MORNING BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SEAS
8-11 FT ACROSS THIS AREA AND PERSIST ATTM. MEANWHILE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ESE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS FAR E AND NE CARIB...WITH FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS. GALE CONDITIONS MAY HAVE
BEEN BRIEFLY SEEN OVERNIGHT OFF COLOMBIA...BUT STRONG HIGH TO MOVE
INTO W ATLC TONIGHT WILL INDUCE GALES APPROACHING 40 KT TONIGHT
AND SUGGESTED BY MODELS TO LINGER TO AT LEAST 12Z...AND 15Z MAY BE
BEST FORECAST. REINFORCING AND BENIGN COLD FRONT HAS MOVE THROUGH
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS NW CUBA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT BOND
DRY MAKING IDENTIFICATION DIFFICULT ACROSS NW CARIB ATTM...AND
REALLY NOT IMPORTANT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER. PRES GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS HIGH SHIFTS INTO W ATLC...AND WINDS VEER MORE
ENE ACROSS NW AND W CARIB. NEW WAVE GROWTH WILL BE INITIATED BY
THE VEERING WINDS AND WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO MILD DECREASE IN SEAS
NW PART. WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG BARAHONA
PENINSULA OF DOM REP EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WINDS TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT
AND MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS N AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS. GALES OFF
COLOMBIA TO BUILD SEAS TO 13 OR 14 FT BY MORNING.

MODELS SHOW WELL DEFINED SHEAR AXIS...THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...PERSISTING THROUGH MON BEFORE WINDS VEER E TO SE ACROSS
NW PORTIONS MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND ANY FURTHER FRONTAL REMNANTS
WILL LIFT N OF AREA. OTHERWISE...A HIGH SHIFTS ENE ACROSS W AND
INTO CENTRAL ATLC...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH E WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC.
A MIX OF MODERATE NW SWELL AND STRONG ENE WIND SWELL WILL AFFECT
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEP SEAS 7-10 FT THROUGH
MID WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

OLD STATIONARY FRONT NOW DEPICTED AS SURFACE TROUGH ON MOST RECENT
ANALYSIS EXTENDING FROM 30N59W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHILE NEW AND
BENIGN COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE W ATLC...EXTENDING FROM
31N61.5W TO W CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 79W. STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS MID
ATLC STATES BUILDING ACROSS AREA BEHIND FRONT AND PRODUCING N TO
NE FLOW TO THE NW OF BOTH BOUNDARIES...STRONGEST THROUGH STRAITS
OF FL. BUILDING WIND SWELL MIXING WITH NW SWELL ACROSS WATERS E OF
64-75W...AND PRODUCING SEAS 8-11 FT NW OF FRONT AND 6-8 FT BETWEEN
THE TWO BOUNDARIES. PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT BEHIND COLD
FRONT AS HIGH SHIFTS INTO W ATLC...AND PRODUCE LARGE AREA OF NE TO
E WINDS 20-25 KT WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT
WILL APPROACH AREA FROM NW MON NIGHT AND TUE AS HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER ENE INTO CENTRAL ATLC...WITH LLVL FLOW RESPONDING AND
VEERING SE ACROSS FAR W AND NW WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS TO THE
IMMEDIATE 150 NM NW OF FRONT DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN 25 KT
PLUS WITH NARROW ZONE OF 10-13 FT SEAS...AND 8-10 FT ELSEWHERE NW
OF FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EACH RUN ON EVOLUTION OF LOW TO
DEVELOP ALONG NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH GFS AGAIN SHOWING GALES
N OF 29.5N ACROSS NW PORTIONS E OF NEXT FRONT EARLY TUE THROUGH
MIDDAY WHILE ECMWF SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH SMALLER AREA N OF 30.5N.
AT PRESENT I DO NOT HAVE GALES FORECAST FOR OUR ATLC WATERS BUT
IS VERY CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO MAKE A DETERMINATION NEXT FEW
PACKAGES. STRONG HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC DURING THIS TIME WILL
OPEN UP COMPLETELY INTO DEVELOPING LOW ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD FOR
TREMENDOUS AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF ATLC
WATERS E OF THIS NEXT FRONT. FRONT TO MOVE INTO WRN WATERS WEAKLY
EARLY WED WITH LITTLE GRADIENT WIND BEHIND IT...BEFORE HIGH BUILDS
SWD INTO AREA LATE WED AND WED NIGHT FOR INCREASING WINDS BEHIND
FRONT. FRONT TO REACH E CUBA TO ABOUT 30N70W THU MORNING AND
30N60W TO NW HAITI BY FRI MORNING. LONG NLY FETCH BEHIND FRONT AND
SUPPORTING LOW TO GENERATE BIG SWELL EVENT FOR REGION.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.