Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 231834
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
234 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY AND IS
ALREADY ENHANCING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT FRESH NE-E WINDS TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND
ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES W-
NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A ENE-ESE 15-20 KT
WIND SHIFT...AND 4-5 FT SEAS. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY NEAR
22N94W BY LATE EACH MORNING. THE THU...FRI AND SAT EVENTS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH ONLY A MODERATE WIND SHIFT EXPECTED
ALONG THE TROUGH.

ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...LEAVING A NE TO SW RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MAINLY
MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAINLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS LEADING INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
OVER THE EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS MAY APPROACH THE REGION.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR 16.5N56.5W ALONG A TROPICAL
WAVE. CONVECTION IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
GUIDANCE FAVORS TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW TRACKS
NW ACROSS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN PASSING NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TONIGHT...AND PASSING N OF PUERTO RICO ON WED...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE QUADRANT. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...AS SURFACE RIDGING WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO
FRESH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON IS EXPECTED TO PASS E OF THE AREA BUT
LONG PERIOD SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 15N E OF 60W ON FRI
AND SAT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FIONA WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL CYCLONE
GASTON WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST ZONES BETWEEN 55W AND 60W
BEGINNING ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATH IS A CHANGE
TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD HAVE
MUCH LESS OF AN IMPACT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ZONES...HOWEVER WILL
STILL DIRECTLY AFFECT THE REGION IN OUR HIGH SEAS. IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES...EXPECT MAINLY LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT TO PROPAGATE
WESTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM BEGINNING FRIDAY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WAVE CURRENTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER THIS WEEK. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BECOME LIKELY
OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC ZONES...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...AS
THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE WARNING THU.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO TRENCH...
     GALE WARNING WED NIGHT INTO THU.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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