Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 210730
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
230 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Low to medium
confidence.

A sharp mid-upper level trough moving off the Texas coast into
Louisiana is triggering a line of showers and thunserstorms in
northwest Gulf. At the surface, buoy observations and a partial
scatterometer pass indicate a distinct wind shift along a trough
extending from New Orleans through 27N90W to the Bay of Campeche.
The feature lacks true frontal characteristics other than a sharp
transition across the boundary from NW to SSE winds. Models show
this trough drifting east across the Gulf into early Wednesday,
followed by development of a surface low just east of Tampa that
slowly moves across southern Florida through Friday. Fresh to
strong winds are expected off the coast of Tampico and north of
the Yucatan Peninsula overnight. Fresh to near gale force winds
are expected off the coast of Veracruz later today. Otherwise,
fresh to strong winds will develop over NW waters Tuesday night
and over the SE basin Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

The surface trough slowly moving through the Gulf of Mexico the
next few days will have a major impact on the synoptic pattern in
the Caribbean. Winds will become very light across most of the
region, except within 120 nm west of the trough axis in the NW
Caribbean as it drifts across the Yucatan Basin through Thursday.
Expect seas to subside to 2-3 ft across the entire Caribbean by
Wednesday morning, and remain benign in most of the basin through
Friday except in the NW Caribbean.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Low to medium
confidence.

A surface low centered near 23N64W is trailing a cold front
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Scatterometer data
shows moderate to fresh cyclonic winds within 150 nm of the low
center. This low will weaken today then dissipate by tonight as
an approaching cold front sweeps through the area north of Puerto
Rico. Large seas associated with the approaching cold will sweep
through the forecast waters mainly east of 65W through Thursday.
A surface low expected to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and move across southern Florida will enhance southeast winds in
the vicinity of the Bahamas Thursday and Thursday night, with
strong winds increasing to 25-30 kt roughly near 28N78W Thursday
morning and seas building to 9-11 ft north of the Bahamas.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.



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