Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 030748
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
210 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence.

A warm front is over the NW waters generating some shower and
tstm activity. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. The
warm front is attached to a 1004 mb low pressure over NE Mexico.
Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong E-SE winds across the
north-central waters, particularly north of 25N between 87W and
92W. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between
the low and a 1028 mb high pressure over the SE CONUS. The low
pressure will move NE across eastern Texas through this evening,
then eastward across southern Louisiana through Sunday evening
with a cold front briefly entering the NW Gulf on Sunday. Under
this weather pattern, expect fresh to strong E-SE winds across
the northern Gulf waters today, with moderate to fresh SE-S winds
across most of the Gulf region Sunday. Fresh to locally strong NE
winds are expected behind the cold front. Another low pressure is
expected to develop Sunday night along the southern end of the
cold front in southern Texas. Then, the low will drift northward
along the Texas coast through Monday night. GFS model guidance
shows the low dragging a cold front across the Gulf waters Monday
through Tuesday night, then stalling and weakening over the
southern Gulf Wednesday. Fresh to strong winds and building seas
up to 7 ft are expected in the wake of the new cold front Monday
and Monday night. Looking ahead...a stronger cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Gulf Wednesday night followed by strong
to gale force winds and building seas of 13-14 ft across the west-
central Gulf waters on Thursday. High seas of 16-18 ft are
forecast to build across the SW Gulf in the wake of this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A surface trough, currently extending along 72W/73W, continues to
move westward across the Caribbean Sea. Scatterometer data shows
moderate to fresh trade winds on either side of the trough axis.
The trough will move slowly westward across the basin and weaken
into Saturday night. High pressure northeast of the area will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern half of
the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic zones. SE winds are expected
to strengthen a bit Sunday and Monday in the NW Caribbean,
including the Yucatan Channel, as an area of low pressure develops
in the Gulf of Mexico near the Texas coast, tightening the
pressure gradient west of Cuba.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence.

A cold front associated with a deepening low pressure system
north of the area extends from 30N65W to the Straits of Florida.
It will reach from 27N65W to the Straits of Florida early this
afternoon, and from 23N65W to 24N78W Sunday, reaching the SE
waters by Sunday night. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and 4-
5 ft seas are expected behind the front, with the exception of
moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 6-8 ft over the NE waters
today and tonight. The strong low pressure system will generate
large swell, which will sweep into the central Atlantic Sunday
through Tuesday, with max seas building to 9-10 ft over far NE
waters by early Sunday. GFS model brings another cold front off
the Florida coast Tuesday, reaching from 31N72W to SE Florida
Wednesday. Marine guidance suggests fresh to strong southerly
winds and building seas to 8 ft ahead of the front, and mainly N
of 27N on Tuesday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.



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