Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
000
AGXX40 KNHC 300752
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
352 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS...THEN MOVE OVER THE SW GULF
WATERS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY BE
MODERATE TO FRESH. THE STRONGEST EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 10N TO
21N ALONG 96W. ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE GULF TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. S OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT MODERATE E-SE
RETURN FLOW PRIMARILY OVER THE W-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL STRAITS EACH DAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS
INTO EARLY EVENINGS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 51W IS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FROM 12-17N. THIS WAVE WILL REACH 60W LATE
TONIGHT. STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL SPREAD W ACROSS THE TROPICAL
WATERS N OF 15N E OF THE LEEWARDS ON SAT...THEN SHIFT WNW ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E-SE
WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE N
COAST OF CUBA BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TROPICAL LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N26W IN THE VICINITY OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC. THE LOW HAS A GOOD CHANGE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN E OF 55W THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE...AND PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF
PULSING STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A STRIP OF NEAR
GALE FORCE NE-E WINDS IS EXPECTED ABOUT 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. COMBINED SEAS WILL
PEAK NEAR 11 FT THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS AREA NEAR
11.5N75.5W.

STRONG E WINDS WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY THIS
MORNING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS W INTO THE AREA FROM 29N55W TO
28N78W. THE GRADIENT S OF THIS RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES W ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N WITH FRESH TO STRONG E
WINDS BEGINNING TONIGHT S OF 21N E OF 58W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
SHIFT W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 63-75W BY SUN
EVENING.

FRESH E-SE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL BE FRESH TO STRONG ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS
THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.