Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 200512
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
112 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FL BAY
TO THE NW GULF COAST WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER ALONG THE RIDGE
NEAR 27N85W. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NW ALONG THE RIDGE TO
THE N-CENTRAL GULF ON THU AND THU NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING NW OVER
LA ON FRI WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE SE GULF WATERS. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT SE ALONG THE RIDGE AND BACK OVER THE NE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NE GULF WATERS TILL FRI
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN ON FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. EXPECT SE-S 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL
AND NW WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THU
NIGHT...EXCEPT INCREASING BRIEFLY TO 15-20 KT DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME ON FRI THROUGH SUN.

S OF 23N...EXPECT AN EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN ON THU EVENING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENT TONIGHT.
THESE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD W ALONG 22N GRADUALLY
BECOMING E TO SE LATE TONIGHT...AND DIMINISHING TO SE AT 20 KT
NEAR 22N94W BY SUNRISE THU. THE THU EVENING EVENT WILL DAMPEN
QUICKLY TO E AT 10-15 KT BY SUNRISE FRI. BEGINNING FRI EVENING
THE LOCALLY ENHANCED EVENING WINDS WILL SET UP AN INVERTED
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE DURING EACH MORNING...AND LOSE IDENTITY DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE:  LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH CONSISTED OF A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR DAY 4 AND 5. NWPS USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW-MED CONFIDENCE.

FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH THE MAXIMUM AFFECTED AREA OCCURRING
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. TROPICAL LOW PRES CONTINUES NEAR
10N53W BUT EXTREMELY UNORGANIZED ATTM. NHC GUIDANCE FAVORS THE
LOW TRACKING NORTHWESTERLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. NHC GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BOGUSED INTO THE
OFFICIAL MARINE GRIDS DURING THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES...AND WILL BE
ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FUTURE RUNS. FOR NOW...A SURFACE LOW
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS NEAR
13N55W LATE TONIGHT WITH 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM OVER
THE NE SEMICIRCLE. THE AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT AND SHIFT TO OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO NEAR 15N61W ON THU EVENING...NEAR 16N68W ON FRI EVENING...
NEAR 16N73W ON SAT EVENING...NEAR JAMAICA ON SUN EVENING AND
APPROACHING S-CENTRAL CUBA ON MON EVENING. INTERACTION WITH THE
LARGER ISLANDS WILL OF COURSE PLAY A MAJOR PART IN THE
ORGANIZATION OF THIS TROPICAL LOW...AND MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT
FREQUENT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NDFD GRIDS...TEXT AND GRAPHICS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH CONSISTED OF A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR DAY 4 AND 5. NWPS USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW-MED CONFIDENCE DUE TO TROPICAL LOW.

A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM E TO W ALONG 26N-28N THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTING E AND W ALONG THE  RIDGE
AXIS. EXPECTING SW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS N OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
DIMINISHING SOME W OF 73W OVER THE WEEKEND.

EASTERLY TRADES FROM THE RIDGE AXIS S TO ALONG 22N ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT 5-10 KT. TO THE S OF 22N MODERATE 10-15 KT TRADES
ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ALONG THE N COAST
OF HISPANIOLA TILL LATE FRI WHEN THE EFFECTS OF A TROPICAL LOW
SHIFTING W ACROSS THE NORTHER CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 21N. MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE 3-6 DAY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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