Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 010639
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
239 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE GFS.
MWW3 AND TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT THROUGH FRI. THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO NEAR TAMPA
BAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE N
CENTRAL GULF WED AND THE NE GULF THU. A NEW COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS AND THE GEFS DO NOT SHOW WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING. THE FASTER 00Z GFS IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE GEFS AND EC ENS
MEANS...WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER. THE GFS SHOWS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS AND MWW3/NWPS
WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE INVOF 22N IS INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS DRIVING THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEEN IN THE 0222Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE AREA OF
20-25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND GRADUALLY SHIFT W THROUGH
FRI MORNING. AFTERWARD...INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC
WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST WINDS BACK S AND E OVER THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GFS APPEARS REASONABLE WITH WINDS HERE AND
WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES DRIVING THEM.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE GFS.
MWW3 AND TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

BY EARLY FRI MORNING...THE 12Z/30 ECMWF BECOMES AN OUTLIER BOTH
WITH THE H5 LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLC AND THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE ATLC...IT CARRIES A MORE NLY LOW WELL N OF
THE AREA TO THE S OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THAN THE 00Z MODELS.
THE ECMWF ENS MEAN IS MORE SLY WITH THE LOW...HEDGING CLOSER TO
THE 00Z GFS AND THE GEFS MEAN. THE ECMWF ALSO ALLOWS MORE ENERGY
TO MOVE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ON
FRI THAN THE OTHER MODELS. ITS SOLUTION APPEARS TO WEAK AND STRUNG
OUT. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND SCATTEROMETER
WINDS...THINK A STRONGER SOLUTION IS BETTER. THE GFS IS ON THE
DEEPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LIKELY HAS SOME GRID-SCALE
FEEDBACK ISSUES THAT ARE ENHANCING THE WIND. BLENDING THE GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF THE
PATTERN...WITH THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION APPEARS REASONABLE. SOME
MANUAL EDITS WERE REQUIRED EARLY IN THE FORECAST ALONG 70W N OF
27N WHERE THE 0226Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF WIND ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF 65W BY THU MORNING AND E OF 55W BY FRI
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST SAT MORNING.
AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE GFS FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS COMES BEHIND THE FRONT SAT MORNING. THE 00Z
GEFS SHOWS UP TO A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS MEETING CRITERIA N
OF 30N W OF 78W. NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A 25 KT
WIND BARB IN THE AREA. FOR NOW...BLENDING THE GFS WITH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT YIELD WINDS THAT MEET ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON FORECASTING A STRONG BREEZE HERE AS A
RESULT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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