Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 132109
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
109 PM PST SAT FEB 13 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE LTST GOES VIS AND IR IMGRY INDC A STG LOW PRES SYS CTRD OVR
THE GULFAK...WITH THE ASSOC FRNTL BNDRY EXTENDING TO THE SE INTO
PZ5. CRNT SFC RPRTS INDC UP TO 25 KT IN THE OFSHR WTRS...AND
HIGHER TO THE N OF THE OFSHR WTRS ALNG THE COAST OF VANCVR ISLE.
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/GEM/NAM ALL INDC GALES AHD OF THE FRNTL
BNDRY AT 18Z...THEN WKN QUICKLY INTO TNGT AS THE FRNT MOVES INLND.
F0R NOW PLANNING ON DROPPING GALE FM PREV FCST BEFORE THE START OF
THE TNGT PD...AS THE MDLS AGREE WELL ON THE TMG.

OTRW...THE LTST WV IMGRY INDC A SOMEWHAT FLAT RDG OVR PZ6. THE
12Z GFS INDC THE RDG WL SLOWLY BUILD INTO MON...BEFORE MOVG INLND
MON NGT INTO WED. THE 12Z MDLS ALL INDC A SERIES OF H5 VORTS WL
MOV OVR THE TOP OF THE RDG INTO TUE...WITH SEVL WK FRNTL BNDRYS
MOVG THRU PZ5 INTO TUE. THE 12Z MDLS ARE IN RSNBLY GUD AGRMT INTO
TUE ON THE OVERALL PTTN...WITH SOME MINOR DIFFS ON THE
DETAILS...THO THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WELL ON THE TMG AND INTNSTY
OF THE SYSTEMS. THE MAJORITY OF THE 12Z MDLS ALL KEEP WNDS BLO WRNG
CRITERIA IN THE OFSHR WTRS INTO TUE...INCLUDING S OF CAPE
MENDOCINO WHERE THE MDLS INDC A MDT PRES GRAD BTWN A CSTL TROF AND
SFC HIGH PRES TO THE W OF THE C CAL WTRS. AS A RESULT...PLANNING
ON FAVORING 12Z GFS 10M WNDS THRU TUE.

THE BIGEST FCST PRBLM IS ON THE THE NEXT SYS ON TUE NGT INTO THU. THE
12Z MDLS ALL INDC AN UPR TROF WL MOV INTO THE EPAC LATE TUE AND
WED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR RDG SLIDES INLND...BUT THERE ARE
DIFFS ON THE HANDLG OF THE SHRTWVS. THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE SHRTWAVES...AND HAS JUMPED
TO THE S WITH THE 12Z RUN. THE 12Z ECWMF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
BEEN A LTL FURTHER N...AND HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH FM THE 00Z
RUN. THE 12Z UKMET HAS TRENDED SHARPLY TWDS THE ECWMF FM ITS 00Z
RUN...AND THE 12Z GEM STARTS OFF NR THE GFS BUT THEN TRENDS IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE 12Z ECWMF. THE INDIVIDUAL 12Z GEFS MEMBERS HAVE
QUITE A BIT OF SPRD WITH THE ASSOC SFC LOW...AND ARE A LTL FURTHER
N THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. WITH ALL TRENDS POINTING TWDS THE 12Z
ECMWF...PLANNING ON FAVORING IT FOR THE NEXT FCST. ALSO...THE 12Z
GFS INDC GALES IN THE OFSHR WTRS WED INTO THU AS THE ASSOC SFC SYS
MOVG THRU THE OFSHR WTRS...BUT IS A STG OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED WITH
THE REST OF THE 12Z SOLNS. CONFDC IS CRNTLY LOW WITH THE
GALES...SO PLANNING ON STAYING BLO 34 KT FOR THE NEXT FCST.

.SEAS...THE 12Z MWW3 IS INIT A LTL HIGH JUST W OF PZ5 NR THE
FRNT...BUT OTRW OK. THE 12Z MWW3 AND ECMWF ARE IN RSBL AGRMT INTO
TUE...AS BOTH WX MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGRMT. PLAN ON FLWG MWW3 OVR THE
SHORT RNG...AS THE GFS IN PREFERRED. DIFFS START APPEARING TUE
NGT...AS THE GFS WINDS ARE STGR TO THE S OF THE ECWMF. AS A
RESULT...PLANNING ON SWITCHING TO THE 12Z ECMWF WAM BY 00Z WED.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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