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AGPN40 KWNM 242116

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
116 PM PST Fri Feb 24 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The ASCAT pass from 19z indicates a swath of winds just west of
the Washington and Oregon waters 25-30 kt. There was a ship in
that region that reported 35 kt at 18z...although it appeared to
high when it was quality controlled. Over the next few days the
offshore waters will be affected by an area of low pres moving
southward across the waters...while another low tracks E-SE
toward the California waters and dissipating as it approaches the
region. A few days ago some of the models were indicating that
the two systems would phase and strengthen across the region
while producing gales. None of the models are forecasting such a
phase to occur now while keeping the low centers separate and
weak. Another short wave will move southward along the Washington
and Oregon coasts on days 3 into 4...then weaken as it nears the
California waters. Strong high pres will build east across much
of the California waters days 4-7...while a weak low pres trough
forms along the California coast. The pattern across the
northern waters will remain progressive throughout. The 12z
global models are in very good agreement throughout the time
period...with only minor differences. The ECMWF is forecasting
slightly stronger winds than the GFS during the Saturday night
period near the channel islands. I will populate the winds grids
using the GFS through 12z Saturday...then transition to the ECMWF
through 21z Sunday...then finish the week by using the GFS.

Seas...Both the ENP and WAM initialized well across the waters.
Will populate the wave grids using the corresponding wave model
to match the winds,



.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ835...Inner Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale Saturday night.
.PZZ935...Outer Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale Saturday night.


.Forecaster Shaw. Ocean Prediction Center. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.