Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 242000
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

VALID 00Z SUN SEP 25 2016 - 00Z TUE SEP 27 2016

...STRONG STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST...

...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AIR FOR THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WEEKEND...

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS...

COOL, DRY AIR IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR A
COUPLE DAYS - AUTUMN-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF
COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY - THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE
CAROLINAS BY MONDAY.

A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TRANSPORTING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA
WILL INTERACT WITH THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PROVINCES OF CANADA.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS FROM NORTHERN
UTAH TO MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT.  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY FROM EASTERN WYOMING TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE
LOW LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SURGE IN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


FOR TEXAS, POSSIBLY INCLUDING EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, A
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT
INTERCEPTS A RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE SURGING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL HELP PROVIDE
LIFT IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMON, WITH ISOLATED AREAS
NEAR 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A MODERATE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH
A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

CAMPBELL


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
$$





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