231
FXUS01 KWBC 060749
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EDT Mon May 06 2024

Valid 12Z Mon May 06 2024 - 12Z Wed May 08 2024

...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Central/Southern Plains on Monday and a Slight Risk across the
Ohio Valley on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Northern
High Plains and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on
Monday...

...Heavy snow over the higher elevations from the Pacific
Northwest to the Northern/Central Rockies...

A front extending from the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains
to the Southern Rockies will advance eastward to the Lower Great
Lakes and southwestward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by
Wednesday. The deep upper-level trough associated with the system
will help produce heavy snow over parts of the Northern/Central
Rockies and the Uinta Mountains on Monday.

Moreover, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward
over the Pains on Monday and Tuesday. The system will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms as the boundary moves onto the
Plains.  Therefore, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5)
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains
through Tuesday morning.  The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the added threat
of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes, severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65
knots or greater, and hail two inches or greater over the area.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain
over parts of eastern Kansas/Nebraska, western Iowa/Missouri, and
northeastern Oklahoma as the front moves out of the Rockies onto
the Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley through Tuesday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

In addition, the moisture over the Northern High Plains will aid
in creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts
of eastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Northern High Plains through Tuesday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

On Tuesday, as the cold front moves across the Ohio Valley, the
boundary will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts
of Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, southeastern Illinois, southeastern
Missouri, extreme northeastern Arkansas, and a small portion of
northern Tennessee. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley
and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from Tuesday through Wednesday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
few tornadoes.  There will be an additional threat of hail two
inches or greater over parts of the Ohio Valley.

Further, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Ohio Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, and the Central Gulf
Coast on Monday and over parts of the Northeast and Southeast on
Tuesday.

Meanwhile, another front onshore over the Pacific Northwest will
move eastward to the Northern Intermountain Region and into
Central California by late Monday afternoon. The northern half of
the boundary will dissipate by Tuesday morning, while the southern
half moves southeastward to the Southern Plains/Southern Rockies,
linking up with the front and extending westward over the Ohio
Valley by Tuesday afternoon.

On Monday, rain and higher-elevation snow will develop over the
Pacific Northwest as the system moves onshore over the Northwest.
The snow will be heavy over the Southern Cascades. Snow will also
develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region Monday
night.

On Tuesday, onshore flow will keep rain and higher-elevation snow
over parts of the Northwest. Furthermore, upper-level energy over
the Northern Rockies will aid in producing heavy snow over parts
of the region.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$