Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS48 KWNS 230712
SWOD48
SPC AC 230711

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO MID-MS VALLEY...
CONSENSUS OF ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CENTERED ACROSS HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC...WITH A STOUT MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BELT OF
CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO
MID-MS VALLEY DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT
A SERIES OF MINOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW
REGIME WHICH MAY AID IN PERIODS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR THESE TYPE OF IMPULSES AND YIELDS LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ASSESSING MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

..GRAMS.. 07/23/2016



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