Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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944
ACUS48 KWNS 010744
SWOD48
SPC AC 010742

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The potential for severe weather will be minimal Saturday-Sunday
(days 4-5) before some conditional risk perhaps develops over the
middle Mississippi Valley on Monday (day 6).  The 01/00z operational
GFS model and the GEFS ensemble mean suggest a narrow corridor of
moisture returning northward into the MO/IA/IL vicinity.  The
aforementioned models are more amplified and slower with the
progression of a mid-level trough moving from the western states
into the central U.S. compared to the ECMWF and CMC models.  Due to
model variability and the seemingly marginal moisture return
scenario, will describe this scenario with model
predictability-too-low.  The central U.S. disturbance will move
downstream over parts of the eastern U.S. as a surface low moves
into southern Canada.  Surface high pressure will likely reside over
the central Gulf Coast states by the Tuesday-Wednesday (days 7-8)
period.

..Smith.. 03/01/2017



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